Always think what if

[Csfisher]

Sometimes, the things we plan for do happen, but I think the best planning is like a passage plan to go from Portsmouth to Lymington. Few of us would write anything down, but we have an awareness of tide and weather, and the alternatives if something doesn't work out. It isn't a conscious plan, but it's a state of mind, which one can only have when one has been sailing long enough to realise the depths of one's ignorance

Oh that's interesting, I've always insisted that a log is kept. If I'm acting as skipper, I will ensure that I do this myself. It may only be the bare minimum that I put in, tide times and weather forecast with a brief overview of the navigation plan etc.

But every vessel that proceeds to sea is required to have a voyage plan. It's a legal requirement, and just prudent seamanship . If you were to have an incident - the MCA could request to see your log. I also use it to keep a record of all visitors onboard and their NOK contact details. Also a useful way to track engine hours and keep track of your sailing. Also, always write in pencil since pen is useless if said log then becomes wet.

 

[laika]

But every vessel that proceeds to sea is required to have a voyage plan. It's a legal requirement, and just prudent seamanship

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't portsmouth to lymington within category D waters and therefore such a trip would not technically count as "proceeding to sea"?

Regardless, whilst proper passage planning is undoubtedly good seamanship, for those intimately familiar with these waters, the hazards and potential refuges then just as stemar says armed with experience and knowledge of the tide times and weather forcast , you can fulfil the passage planning requirements of the relevant parts of solas V for this trip without a written plan, bearing in mind also that the plan should be proportional to the trip and the vessel.

If we're being fastidious, shouldn't we write our logs in pen (being indelible, which pencil isn't)?

If my crew were people I needed to write down their family's contact details for I'd be wondering what I'd been doing to scare off my actual friends

 

[Stemar]

I have a voyage plan, but it's in my head. If I'm going further, I'll certainly do it properly - cross channel, or into waters I don't know, but there have been discussions here about what is appropriate and, from what I recall, it doesn't have to be written down for a simple passage. You just have to be able to demonstrate that you've done appropriate planning. "There are no notices to mariners that affect me, tide's going in the right direction, I'll have plenty of water when I get there, and the forecast is suitable for the next day or two" seems to me to be adequate on a suitable, properly equipped and familiar boat. Another matter on a charter, perhaps, where you're less sure about levels of equipment.

 

[Csfisher]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't portsmouth to lymington within category D waters and therefore such a trip would not technically count as "proceeding to sea"?

Regardless, whilst proper passage planning is undoubtedly good seamanship, for those intimately familiar with these waters, the hazards and potential refuges then just as stemar says armed with experience and knowledge of the tide times and weather forcast , you can fulfil the passage planning requirements of the relevant parts of solas V for this trip without a written plan, bearing in mind also that the plan should be proportional to the trip and the vessel.

If we're being fastidious, shouldn't we write our logs in pen (being indelible, which pencil isn't)?

If my crew were people I needed to write down their family's contact details for I'd be wondering what I'd been doing to scare off my actual friends

Directly from the IMO:

Although Regulation 34 only applies when proceeding to sea, small craft users should adhere to the voyage planning principles when also sailing in categorised waters.

Regulation 34 applies to all vessels but the degree of voyage planning may sensibly be less for small vessels and pleasure craft. There is still a need for prior planning but the plan need not be written down.

- So no, it doesn't need to be written down, although I prefer to. Partly for my own records, but also because that way I have the tide data handy. Yes I can get them on my phone, but that could fall overboard and I could forget them. Yes they're in the tide tables in various books, but I like having my relevant tides written down along with any notes on one easy to refer to page. Just personal preference.

- with regards to the solent, I still would do a plan even though it's not open ocean.

- with regards to pen vs pencil, counterintuitive I know but our ships log is one legal document that should be written in pencil due to the risk of it getting wet which would cause the pen to run. But I suppose this is personal preference. At work, we use pencil for the ships official deck log, although I know some other ships use pen.

 

[laika]

- with regards to the solent, I still would do a plan even though it's not open ocean.

No-one is questioning the prudence of having a plan wherever one goes. The contention is about formal written planning vs having the relevant knowledge to apply dynamically to a situation as it changes. With regard to the solent, many people who sail there regularly will be aware of more hazards and the relevant merits of the various diversion options than you could fit into a one page passage plan. Moreover I don't treat an afternoon sail like a military exercise: we change the plan as we go along depending on how the crew feel. Challenging conditions, unfamiliar waters, different crew, things are different.

Similarly "what if": Of course I pay attention to things I read about strategies for coping with rig failure (e.g. YM's crash test boat series) and squirrel that knowledge away. I've made a conscious decision based on financial and space cost vs probability of need regarding purchase of rig cutters and in the event of the rig coming down to go with the hacksaw and spare blades I already carry. But do I run through mental exercises of what I'd do, step by step, if the rig came down as I'm passing cowes entrance? No, partly because I'm usually concentrating on other vessels, partly because I'm there to have fun and partly because the scenario which *actually* occurs probably won't be the exact one I'm running an exercise for.

I think the distinction is arming yourself with a prudent range of knowledge, tools and prudent practices to cope dynamically with problems if and when they arise vs. formal disaster planning. I used to err on the latter side but both me and my partner enjoy sailing an awful lot more since I relaxed and started leaning towards the former approach.

 

[Stemar]

arming yourself with a prudent range of knowledge, tools and prudent practices to cope dynamically with problems if and when they arise

This is the thing. One can have all sorts of plans for all sorts of emergencies but

Moltke the Elder, believed in developing a series of options for battle instead of a single plan, saying “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.” Today, “no plan survives contact with the enemy” is the popular reconfiguration of this concept.
Strategic Planning: Moltke the Elder, Dwight Eisenhower, Winston Churchill, and Just a Little Mike Tyson

Another comment, from Eisenhower is "In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable"

It's about a state of mind and general preparedness, not a step one do this, step 2 do that plan. Things never work out like that anyway.

 

[geem]

This is the thing. One can have all sorts of plans for all sorts of emergencies but

Moltke the Elder, believed in developing a series of options for battle instead of a single plan, saying “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.” Today, “no plan survives contact with the enemy” is the popular reconfiguration of this concept.
Strategic Planning: Moltke the Elder, Dwight Eisenhower, Winston Churchill, and Just a Little Mike Tyson

Another comment, from Eisenhower is "In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable"

It's about a state of mind and general preparedness, not a step one do this, step 2 do that plan. Things never work out like that anyway.

Exactly my thoughts.

 

[zoidberg]

Some of this post may be thought controversial or even 'challenging'. That's deliberate. I don't expect everyone to agrees with the views I'll express, but if a few readers 'reflect' a bit, it'll likely prove worthwhile.

I'd been reading this thread when the latest copy of the MAIB's Safety Digest thumped onto the mat. I've received these - free - for years now, and used selected 'Cases' to encourage my students to discuss, argue, reflect on the problems and solutions. That was a form of 'What If?' which I encouraged. It's remarkable that so many Fatal Accident reports have an element of 'Someone didn't bother to What-If' during their activity....
and among those incidents where the folk survived, how often it was due to someone having prepared for just that occurence.

All the professional bodies - air, land and sea - strongly encourage 'What-Ifing' in a variety of ways. The benefits to life, limb and wallet are indisputable. Pre-flight briefings, cockpit safety briefs, toolbox talks, RORC/RNLI Sea Survival courses, flight and ship handling simulators, STCW training.... $millions are spent annually on training for events.... all of which is a form of 'What-Ifing'.

Commercial pilots train constantly and expensively for 'What If' incidents. So do maritime pilots, police Pursuit Drivers, pro divers, A&E teams, naval ships bridge teams, local authority 'emergency planners', military aircrew... and many others.

The claim that one goes to sea in a leisure craft and therefore has no need for such stuff is bluntly irresponsible. ( Howls of outrage! )
An owner and skipper - or 'person in charge' - of a vessel or waterborne craft has responsibility towards those accompanying her/him and towards others around, for both actions and omissions. That is very well-enshrined in all sorts of law, even when the right bit of law is hard to pin down.

You don't get let off censure, fines and/or risk of imprisonment simply by stating 'I couldn't be bothered' and 'I was only there for fun. I didn't think that applied to me.' Those with you can duck responsibility, but you - the 'person in charge' - simply cannot.

So how do you avoid being arraigned on a charge of manslaughter when you drive your big, planing mobo right through a swarm of schoolkid kayakers in Bournemouth Bay or the Topper Nationals off Stokes Bay? You do 'What-Ifing'.....

'What-Ifing' thinking is at the core of 'Defensive Driving' techniques. With a little practice, it becomes a cheap and cheerful mental habit that becomes as second-nature as clipping on your seatbelt and checking your mirrors. It shoulders the responsibility for 'due care'.

Don't bovver - and in my book you're simply irresponsible. The people with you and around you won't know that until afterwards.......

 

[Graham376]

 

[fisherman]

There are only 12000 fishermen at sea in the UK, and 3.9million who 'participate in some boat leisure activity'.
Fishermen work under an extensive raft of rules and regs, and obviously the hours spent and conditions are very different. Boats are subject to rigorous inspection. I'm not even sure I could legally go for a jolly on a registered boat now, as my certs may be out of date. In spite of all this the death rate over the last 30 years remains obstinately the same, hence the MCA crackdown.
I've seen a news reporter on a vid made aboard a registered boat, the skipper could be flogged for that. In actual fact you get warned and a period of grace to get the certs done.

I think the leisure sector has comparatively low casualty figures and that's what saves you.

 

[Stemar]

View attachment 124667

Or, as somebody put it in another context, you hit rock bottom, then discover that rock bottom has a basement...

Zoidberg, I think we're approaching the same idea but from different directions.

No amount of what-iffing will get your mobo pilot wiping out the kids off a manslaughter charge; an expensive lawyer might, but shouldn't. Pilots are trained in simulators so that the correct reaction to all the common Ohshits are conditioned reflexes, but it's the defensive driving/flying/sailing state of mind that will keep you and yours alive when you reach the ultimate excreta/fan interface, because you can only prepare for the obvious stuff - MOB, engine failure, etc. Useful as it is for dealing with the predicted unpredictables, a pure checklist mentality will let you down when an unpredictable unpredictable bites.

 

[fisherman]

Interesting watching the Film 'Sully', about the plane ditching in the Hudson river. Enquiry anxious to blame the pilot, showed a simulation where the plane made it back to the runway. Capt Sully asks, "How many practice runs did they do?" Answer, 17.
In the sim the pilots responded with an instant turn back, no discussion, no radio comms, no restart attempts.
"So, put in the human factor, add 35 seconds, plane crashes.

 

[zoidberg]

I'd suggest that Stemar - when he suggests that a mindless 'checklist mentality' or 'conditioned reflexes' are the objective - hasn't quite got the whole idea.

Let me try again.

Education/learning professionals call the process 'cognitive rehearsal'. I've used it all my life, far longer than I had a name for it. The concept and practice gives one 'A Track To Run On', to get started dealing with the problem while the thinking and adapting to the ambient situation goes on.

That's what Emergency Flight Reference Cards are for, regardless of the fact that pilots memorise and know their contents like dogma, then do 'What-Ifing' with that knowledge. It means your hand knows where the Fire Extinguisher Push Button is located - you don't have to search for it in the dark.

The Emergency Radio Transmission Card that the RNLI distribute freely, for example, to be pinned above your VHF/DSC radio, has much the same purpose. It is a 'Track To Run On'.

The First Aiders/Responders pnemonics DR ABC and DRSABCD are another example.

All include the objective of aiding you get started on effective action, rather than be overwhelmed by panic 'cos you don't know what to do.

As for the movie 'Sully', we were shown the two pilots identifying the initial and developing problems, going through the 'Initial Actions' and then the supplementary checklist, all the while Captain Sully was thinking and assessing. That let him decide to switch on the Auxiliary Power Unit ( APU ) immediately, out of sequence. He/they were not frozen into inaction by having no 'Track To Run On'..... that's the benefit of doing your own 'What-Ifing'....

Try it - it's free!

 

[Graham376]

I don't think commercial flying and leisure sailing can be compared in most ways, particularly as little flying time is actually hand flying these days. Muscle memory does come into sailing for situations such as collision avoidance where quick decisions are sometimes needed but few occasions I can think of where check lists would be beneficial. Obvious similarities between flight plans and passage plans and maybe approach plates with pilotage notes but I can't think of much else.

 

[penberth3]

Interesting watching the Film 'Sully', about the plane ditching in the Hudson river. Enquiry anxious to blame the pilot, showed a simulation where the plane made it back to the runway. Capt Sully asks, "How many practice runs did they do?" Answer, 17.
In the sim the pilots responded with an instant turn back, no discussion, no radio comms, no restart attempts.
"So, put in the human factor, add 35 seconds, plane crashes.

And of course, they already knew what was going to happen.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Don't get sucked in to only considering one extremely rare event.

The "What if" concept is just a simple quick mental exercise and not a mantra to live or die by. It may well be that today there is nothing to trigger an analysis and all the major "What ifs" have some mitigation already in place. But it could be something as simple as the wind being from a non familiar direction, a much larger boat than normal moored opposite, a replacement line being used for the first time.

All small changes that may in combination with some permanent threat (Engine stops, boat doesn't go into reverse.....etc..), which if you have taken just a moment to consider could change how you respond. In taking that moment to identify the unusual and consider what extra threat it may create you have already given yourself a much better chance of a successful outcome.

No one is advocating checklists and memory items. Just a little forethought is enough to make a big difference in outcomes.

I cycle, I carry a spare tube and pump, and some money for a bus in case I get two flats. I don't need an emergency tyre failure checklist. But if I had never considered the threat I would have had some very long walks home.

 

[laika]

I'd suggest that Stemar - when he suggests that a mindless 'checklist mentality' or 'conditioned reflexes' are the objective - hasn't quite got the whole idea.

Perhaps I haven't understood Stemar or perhaps you haven't.

When I started reading this thread I was unsure whether the OP was stating the very obvious or advocating the practice of running continuous mental emergency drills while out sailing. Yes of course I have my bungs by my seacocks, know where my epoxy putty is, hang fenders on the "other" side when coming into a berth, and try to maintain my status of not completely incompetent with boat handling under sail. Thinking about novel problem scenarios as they occur to you or you see them discussed and how you'd respond to them isn't some occult practice of the cognoscenti: not being prone to exceptionalism I assume most of us do this and over time arm ourselves with a mental toolkit of strategies.

What *I* think we're discussing here (because the above is the obvious so why would be discussing it?) is whether every trip out is a continuous stream of mental drills. I'm not doing this stuff for work. If my engine fails I don't fall out of the sky. I'm out to have fun. It took me a good ten years to (mostly) stop continually worrying and actually enjoy sailing while being skipper. That doesn't mean I, and I believe Stemar (unless it is indeed me who has misunderstood) and most of the rest of us haven't taken a lot of time to compile a bunch of strategies which can be deployed as the need arises and are continually adding to those as we consider new scenarios.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Perhaps I haven't understood Stemar or perhaps you haven't.

When I started reading this thread I was unsure whether the OP was stating the blindingly obvious or advocating the practice of running continuous mental emergency drills while out sailing. Yes of course I have my bungs by my seacocks, know where my epoxy putty is, hang fenders on the "other" side when coming into a berth, and try to maintain my status of not completely incompetent with boat handling under sail. Thinking about novel problem scenarios as they occur to you or you see them discussed and how you'd respond to them isn't some occult practice of the cognoscenti: not being prone to exceptionalism I assume most of us do this and over time arm ourselves with a mental toolkit of strategies.

What *I* think we're discussing here (because the above is the blindingly obvious so why would be discussing it?) is whether every trip out is a continuous stream of mental drills. I'm not doing this stuff for work. If my engine fails I don't fall out of the sky. I'm out to have fun. It took me a good ten years to (mostly) stop continually worrying and actually enjoy sailing while being skipper. That doesn't mean I, and I believe Stemar (unless it is indeed me who has misunderstood) and most of the rest of us haven't taken a lot of time to compile a bunch of strategies which can be deployed as the need arises and are continually adding to those as we consider new scenarios.

The last time I arrived back at my home port I spent 20 minutes outside the marina waiting while the local coastguard towed in and placed at the fuel dock a Yacht who's crew were clearly not blessed with your level of competence as they obviously hadn't thought "What if we don't have enough fuel to do that?" before their previous departure.

 

[laika]

they obviously hadn't thought "What if we don't have enough fuel to do that?" before their previous departure.

The question I’m asking here is are we talking about obvious safety consciousness or literally spending our whole time out sailing running disaster scenarios in our heads? The former I doubt anyone will question. The latter I see the case for if you’re out in a professional capacity. But for Weekend drift to cowes and back? Call me irresponsible but if a pod of dolphins is playing round the bow as I’m crossing Lyme bay I’m going to stick the autopilot on and go up to the pointy end, not map out the steps to take if they’ve learn from their cousins and take out my rudder.

 

[ProDave]

So how do you avoid being arraigned on a charge of manslaughter when you drive your big, planing mobo right through a swarm of schoolkid kayakers in Bournemouth Bay or the Topper Nationals off Stokes Bay? You do 'What-Ifing'.....

'What-Ifing' thinking is at the core of 'Defensive Driving' techniques. With a little practice, it becomes a cheap and cheerful mental habit that becomes as second-nature as clipping on your seatbelt and checking your mirrors. It shoulders the responsibility for 'due care'.

You avoid driving your big mobo into a crowd of other water users by keeping a watch of where you are going.

You are not going to be let off that charge if you had it written in your passage plan "keep a watch for and avoid other water users" in fact that would probably make the charge worse because you failed to implement your plan.

If you want to call keeping a watch "what-iffing" that's fine by me, as long as you keep that watch.