dunedin
Well-known member
Maxine Sorerell now shown as Abandoned in Madeira
Vendee Globe 2024, Brits
- Thread starter John_Silver
- Start date
Ravi
Active member
That is a shame for him. It must be crushing to go through all that preparation for years and then see it all just end after a few days.
He must have had realistic hopes of improviong on last time with this new boat.
John_Silver
Well-known member
Think @flaming 's Jean Le Cam genius wish has been granted ( ^ #98): Le Roi up to P2, on the 22.00 ranking:
Good news for Sam D, up to third. Sam G hanging in there, at the top table, now heading south once more. As the routing roulette wheel spins on.
Good news for Sam D, up to third. Sam G hanging in there, at the top table, now heading south once more. As the routing roulette wheel spins on.
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geoid96
Well-known member
Maybe you both are! At the 23:00 update Jean le Cam is now furthest South and still doing 12.5 knt.
dunedin
Well-known member
Isn’t it always the case though, a boat / skipper that isn’t fast enough to have a chance of winning in a straight race, can take chances in extreme corner bashing. Most often doesn’t work out, but occasionally it does. When it works becomes a “genius”, when it doesn't then nobody notices yet another tail ender who went the wrong way.
A boat / skipper wanting to win a championship - or a longer race - needs to be a bit more conservative and not take too much risk. Keeping a loose cover on all of the key threats in the fast foiling boats is more important for Sam than worrying about a couple of boats taking big risks for potential gain. What he cannot afford is to let any fast boats make a major break and get away into a differnt weather system.
John_Silver
Well-known member
Depends on the conditions, whether Jean Le Cam doesn’t “have a chance of winning.” Very heavy or very light probably favours a daggerboard boat. Potentially more robust too……
….He did stick a 2008 boat on 4th, in the 2020 VG, after all. Against foiling opposition.
An outside chance, I grant you. But who’d write off Le Roi Jean? Certainly wouldn’t see him as “yet another tail ender.”
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Ravi
Active member
Benjamin Ferre is one to watch. He has quietly been around the front of the non-foilers for most of the race and he is nicely positioned. We could have a couple of non-foilers leading the Le Sable D'olonne glamour boys by tomorrow night.
Ravi
Active member
I'm not so sure what we are seeing is a 'Hail Mary' type desperate move from LeCam. If you look at LeCam's track and VMG, (since Finistere), it looks more like a well thought out strategy, rather than corner bashing..
He still may not get through the hole ahead of the young guns in the West but, whatever happens, I think his current position is less about luck than judgement.
Ravi
Active member
0200 Rankings
Jean LeCam
Last 4 hours - speed 10.4 Kts & VMG 10.4 Kts
Last 24 hrs - speed 11.2 & VMG 11.1
Keeping it simple.
Jean LeCam
Last 4 hours - speed 10.4 Kts & VMG 10.4 Kts
Last 24 hrs - speed 11.2 & VMG 11.1
Keeping it simple.
flaming
Well-known member
Way too early to call it success or failure based on the rankings. They will be a bit all over the place until the fleet are in steady breeze south of the equator.
geoid96
Well-known member
Flaming is correct, but what an interesting phase of the race. Will Jean le Cam sail into a hole? Will the western route led by Thomas Ruyant find sufficient wind to counter the extra distance sailed? Will the Giancarlo Pedote group sneak through to the trades first. How accurate are the forecasts? Personally I think Sam G might well come good. At least he is going in the right direction.
capnsensible
Well-known member
Ravi
Active member
A neat synopsis. Yes, it is much more interesting than a drag race.
dunedin
Well-known member
Yes, noted in post #101. But sounds like whilst the boat issues could perhaps have been sorted with a pit stop, it is the ankle injury that was the show stopper. Human bodies, eh?
But this is where the Vendée Globe is like the Olympics, in various sports - 4 years of intense build up and it can all be over in a instant with one bit of bad luck or bad judgment. Why these things are such a tough gig.
dunedin
Well-known member
Yes - with any corner bashing you can’t tell the outcome till come back to cross (or not) the fleet or reach a turning mark.
Must be a stressful nightmare for the previous leaders when boats are spread so widely in such light and variable winds - no way to cover all the options.
capnsensible
Well-known member
Combination? Does say in the link that sorting the main track problems etc is a yard job. Would imagine it will cost a bit in Madera. Lad seems to have been very unlucky in his history of this race. That ankle must hurt and the concern at sea for extended periods is infection. Guess he had no choice.
Ravi
Active member
In the Vendee, more than most races, I think success is very much about knowing your own (and your boat's) capabilities and sailing accordingly, rather than racing the opposition.
Even within the foilers, there is is range of design compromises.
Of course, it is hard to not play the opposition, psychologically, as we saw in the dogfight in the Southern Ocean last time. And, of course, it is reassuring to follow the herd and to not risk making a fool of oneself.
An example of that is Justine Mettraux who originally followed Lunven when he went far West of the TSS on what proved to be the fastest and less physically taxing route. Despite making good speeds, she decided to jibe across and join the other 38 boats to the East. Would she have made the same decision if Dalin, Sam G, Beyou and all the other big names were alongside her, instead of just the unfancied Lunven?
There are a lot of Figaro racers in the fast foilers who will definitely be duelling with each other. I would not be surprised if Dalin and Richomme keep tabs on when the other goes to the shops when they are at home. And perhaps that makes sense with nearly identical boats and capabilities.
But I think that the Vendee is made someone who can curb their competitiveness, have complete faith in their own judgement and focus on their own plan. Like Boris Herman and, of course, LeCam.
Roberto
Well-known member
During a N-S trans-equator route, all numeric routing will send the boats towards the African coast: models (whatever, GFS ECMWF etc) "see" more wind along the coast, but are particularly unable to locate the ITCZ and provide wind forecasts above what is to be actually found (mostly flat calm). The ITCZ extends North/South about 10-15° latitude along the African coast (read 500-1000 miles), only 2-3° latitude at 26-28°longitude, it often disappears westwards of 28°-30W but then it would be more difficult ot negotiate the SE trades while going south. There is somewhere an interesting article from Marcel van Triest (router of I do not know how many RTW racing boats) showing weather routing sending all the boats there (and eventually getting them stuck in place), final advice was never ever do that, even with Ultim and their impressive polars.
Once past the Cape Verde, they ought to get some west, heading SW with NE wind...
We'll see how it turns out this time
Once past the Cape Verde, they ought to get some west, heading SW with NE wind...
We'll see how it turns out this time
Bobc
Well-known member
Sam Davies has dropped to 2kts and it's not due to a gybe.
I do hope she hasn't got a problem.
I do hope she hasn't got a problem.
dunedin
Well-known member
Nicolas Lunven on Holcim PRB currently listed as way back in 26th place on the tracker - but could be well positioned to accelerate away?