Vendee Globe 2024, Brits

[Buck Turgidson]

During a N-S trans-equator route, all numeric routing will send the boats towards the African coast: models (whatever, GFS ECMWF etc) "see" more wind along the coast, but are particularly unable to locate the ITCZ and provide wind forecasts above what is to be actually found (mostly flat calm). The ITCZ extends North/South about 10-15° latitude along the African coast (read 500-1000 miles), only 2-3° latitude at 26-28°longitude, it often disappears westwards of 28°-30W but then it would be more difficult ot negotiate the SE trades while going south. There is somewhere an interesting article from Marcel van Triest (router of I do not know how many RTW racing boats) showing weather routing sending all the boats there (and eventually getting them stuck in place), final advice was never ever do that, even with Ultim and their impressive polars.
Once past the Cape Verde, they ought to get some west, heading SW with NE wind...
We'll see how it turns out this time

Yes, 30W is usually the target at the equator and I think it will be the same again this year.

 

[Ravi]

Yes, 30W is usually the target at the equator and I think it will be the same again this year.

I wonder to what degree established racing strategies will need to be revised as climate change accelerates and intensifies.

In recent years' races there has been chat about weather systems not behaving as they should. Perhaps it has always been so but, when marine insurance companies adjust the limits for hurricane cover, it suggests that macro system changes are real.

 

[Ravi]

Nicolas Lunven on Holcim PRB currently listed as way back in 26th place on the tracker - but could be well positioned to accelerate away?

Ironic that he went all that way to the East to join the pack only to end up as the West most boat again.

 

[John_Silver]

Sam Davies has dropped to 2kts and it's not due to a gybe.

I do hope she hasn't got a problem.

Sam D on the move again (22.00 update). 'Tout va bien.' And she's even found time for a shower plus a spot of bricolage (if I've understood correctly):

Pip investing in westing, like Sam G, by the looks of things. Whilst Jean Le Cam steers resolutely south.

 

[Ravi]

Ferre, in second place, seems to have slipped under everyone's radar. His strategy seems to be to work his way, 300 NM, through the windhole to Cape Verde in his non-foiler on the rhumb line. Not dissimilar to Le Cam's plan, but he would be much better positioned. I hope he can whistle.

Also, on the latest tracker, Boris Herman seems to have turned SSE. I wonder what is going on there. A radical change of plan or something more mundane?

 

[Sea Change]

Is Weöres, the current tail end Charlie, heading for retirement? He looks like he's heading straight for Gran Canaria.

 

[Ravi]

Is Weöres, the current tail end Charlie, heading for retirement? He looks like he's heading straight for Gran Canaria.

He is going there to find shelter to fix some damage.i He has a shredded sail wrapped around his rigging and a huge tear in his main.

It was too windy in Madeira for him to make the repairs there, so he is looking for an anchorage.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

This Saturday, November 16 at 2200hrs UTC when he was sailing in the leading group of the western option Louis Burton informed his shore team and the Vendée Globe race management that he had just heard a very worrying noise: a "big crack" on board the IMOCA Bureau Vallée.

After taking all the necessary precautions and carrying out a series of checks, he realised there were cracks on the deck of the boat (at the level of the Gennaker spreader), which may risk affecting the structural integrity of the boat.
Burton is continuing the investigations. The skipper of the IMOCA Bureau Vallée remains in the race.

Sounds pretty terminal to me.

 

[Ravi]

..... there were cracks on the deck of the boat .

Sounds pretty terminal to me.

It is strange that this should happen in such a benign sea state with not much wind about.

Shame for the lad.

 

[Sea Change]

Sam Goodchild looking in a good position again- 13.5kt vs Le Cam's 3kt way to the east. And the two Team Vulnerable boats look too be converging on a similar route now.

 

[John_Silver]

Yes. Jean Le Cam looks to pick up breeze (on the projection, at least), over next 12 hours. BUT then has to get well west to cross the 'pot au noir.' Sam G (and the westerly boats) looking better set to straight line it, across the narrowest part. Sam G is sailing a blinder. Comes across, on the clips, as being completely in tune with his situation. 'Zen,' as Andi Robertson puts it.

 

[John_Silver]

It is strange that this should happen in such a benign sea state with not much wind about.

Shame for the lad.

Good news, @Buck Turgidson : Apparently (from Andi Robertson's live today), after a daylight inspection, the problem was that the 'jockey pole speared into the side of the boat.' So, not the major structural deck failure first feared. Which, as Ravi says, would be especially unexpected in flat seas at low speed.

 

[John_Silver]

Pix (of the damage) from Louis Burton here (28 secs in):

 

[Buck Turgidson]

And Sam looking well placed again. The doldrums look ok but the may end up a long way west.

 

[Allan]

I've just looked at 1400 UTC rankings and Jean Le Cam is well placed right now. I think he'll have a healthy lead by this time tomorrow. He just needs a good route through the doldrums to open up.
Allan

 

[John_Silver]

He just needs a good route through the doldrums to open up.
Allan

That may be prove to be the fly in his ointment! If he has to go a long way west to find it. But if anyone can make the easterly route work, Jean Le Cam will. Its certainly going to make for edge of the seat viewing. As is whether Sam G can pull off The Great Escape; Or will he be swallowed up by the main westerly fleet?

 

[Allan]

The fast boats in the westerly fleet are bearing down on Sam G and the light winds he's in now. I think the fleet will compress and slow while Jean heads southwest on the wind off the African coast. He looks to have enough wind to get across to the outward red line on the tracker. An interesting couple of days coming up.
Allan

 

[Birdseye]

Sam Goodchild looking in a good position again- 13.5kt vs Le Cam's 3kt way to the east. And the two Team Vulnerable boats look too be converging on a similar route now.

as of now, reversed. And looking at thw current wind he can catch up fairly quickly. About to enter a patch of 14kn winds with Sam stuck in F2 at best.

 

[John_Silver]

Bricolage, for Louis Burton. Wonder if he can make the repair strong enough, to regain use of his port reaching pole? And whether the structure around the starboard one needs beefing up? From what Will Harris said, on today's 'Live,' it sounds as if he can't carry his big gennaker, without the poles. And in these light conditions, that's just the sail he needs.

 

[flaming]

Bricolage, for Louis Burton. Wonder if he can make the repair strong enough, to regain use of his port reaching pole? And whether the structure around the starboard one needs beefing up? From what Will Harris said, on today's 'Live,' it sounds as if he can't carry his big gennaker, without the poles. And in these light conditions, that's just the sail he needs.

He can absolutely carry it, just not as efficiently.

I’m more concerned if they can tie the 2 skins together sufficiently to deal with southern ocean wave action.