Mistroma
Well-known member
The "no deal" terminology is a negotiating soundbite at best, prol food at worst.
In the event there is no deal by Brexit Day, and no extension, then negotiations will cease. This will be immediately met by a raft of emergency measures, followed by more negotiations. Nobody in Whitehall or the European Commission would seriously deny that.
And out of the fog will come a deal, or a series of mini-deals. It is utterly pointless to speculate ex ante what these may be.
You misunderstand my stance, I'm using no deal as shorthand for "no idea what the situation will be at any point in the future but it might be somewhere between little change and the worst outcome for a third party country with no reciprocal agreements".
I don't see it as speculating, more risk assessment. I will study options if I see a risk with high impact and low or unknown probability. Reducing the risk at cost of 2 stamps requires little thought, hence T2L comments.
The 90 day rule is a much more difficult risk to manage. I was simply pointing out that leaving UK for a couple of days would not work if it does happen. Not much speculation there, that is how it works and isn't like resetting the clock on temporary importation.
Of course it might not be an issue and 90 day limit won't apply. However, it is a risk and has reasonable probability of being a big problem for me. I am therefore managing the risk by preparing to obtain an Irish passport. I'll balance the risk and cost with other possible advantages before spending any money.