RTI this Saturday

[Boathook]

I see the organisers have sent out a message about the string winds cancellations etc.
I'm close to giving it a miss.

I think that if the organisers cancel certain classes, then those boats should have their entry fee refunded.

 

[Mark-1]

If I was in a sportsboat or J70 etc I'd be making other plans for Saturday given that statement.

I'm sure I recall them doing that in the past. (To much grumbling.) Even that doesn't meet the test they've published, but as you say probably a brain fart from the writer rather than the actual test.

 

[Never Grumble]

We've been out in some pretty strong winds already this season and acquitted ourselves pretty well, which coupled with the fact that (unusually for RTI) I have a very experienced crew on board is giving me the confidence to think that the forecast is not outside of our capabilities. Outside of the comfort zone maybe, but not outside of what the boat and crew ought to be able to cope with.

My crew is reasonably experienced but only sailed once together and we're a cruising boat with no real race aspirations. We're doing it for fun hence me moving towards the decision not to bother. Good luck sounds like you should have a fast race.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

The wind here this evening is a Beaufort force above the ECMWF forecast. And the ISC seem to be using a forecast model less pessimistic than that for Saturday. Anyway, anyone who takes part has my fullest support, we’ll be watching at Sconce Point, then a dash home to watch from our bedroom if it’s raining, the balcony if dry. Any distinguishing marks, Flaming? We’ll wave. You’ll spot my wife’s pink HH jacket.

 

[st599]

I think that if the organisers cancel certain classes, then those boats should have their entry fee refunded.

You'd lose quite a few races that way, it's a complicated legal position in the UK. If you follow the RRS and something goes badly wrong, you'll be in court defending your decision to start the race.

 

[flaming]

Models seem to be coming together. And have stopped talking about gusts into the 40s. Which is nice…

 

[Chiara’s slave]

Models seem to be coming together. And have stopped talking about gusts into the 40s. Which is nice…

Hmmm. BBC south were still saying that at 7pm. The others are round about the 37 mark though.

 

[flaming]

 

[Never Grumble]

why if I look on the Met Office App does it show a different forecast windspeed to that on Predict Wind?

 

[Chiara’s slave]

why if I look on the Met Office App does it show a different forecast windspeed to that on Predict Wind?

Are you looking at the land forecast? That is always less, and it’s in mph not knots.

This morning, as last night, the actual wind at Hurst, and at Lymington platform, is substantially above the forecast. And subjectively, it’s probably topping 30kn in Freshwater bay. I can tell cos the windows start whistling.

 

[Never Grumble]

Are you looking at the land forecast? That is always less, and it’s in mph not knots.

This morning, as last night, the actual wind at Hurst, and at Lymington platform, is substantially above the forecast. And subjectively, it’s probably topping 30kn in Freshwater bay. I can tell cos the windows start whistling.

Selected St Catherines in both but of course realise that largely depends on grid squares being used and whether covers land or not. I suppose I am looking for a positive but all the forecasts are showing the average wind speed to ramp up tomorrow.

 

[Mark-1]

This morning, as last night, the actual wind at Hurst, and at Lymington platform, is substantially above the forecast.

I've noticed that a lot this year. I'm used to forecasts over estimating wind, but this year over and over again it's been right at the top of, or over, the expected range. I though it might be a feature of all the Northerly's we'd have this season but northerlies aren't exactly a rarity in spring and I've never noticed it before.

Of course it's very subjective so who knows.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

I've noticed that a lot this year. I'm used to forecasts over estimating wind, but this year over and over again it's been right at the top or over the expected range. I though it might be a feature of all Northerley's we'd have this season but northerlies aren't exactly a rarity in spring and I've never noticed it before.

Of course it's very subjective so who knows.

Chaos theory in action. It’s just a forecast, it’s actually rare that the wind does exactly what the best model says it should. It's still the best model though, and they’re rarely out by as much as last night and this morning. Lets hope it goes the other way tomorrow, and it’s 20-25kn.

 

[flaming]

Windycator v2 - Live weather reports from coastal stations and offshore buoys

St Cats seems to be lining up with the forecasts about now. Needles over, but it always is in a SW as the funneling effect isn't picked up.

 

[Mark-1]

Chaos theory in action. It’s just a forecast, it’s actually rare that the wind does exactly what the best model says it should. It's still the best model though, and they’re rarely out by as much as last night and this morning. Lets hope it goes the other way tomorrow, and it’s 20-25kn.

FWIW my theory has been that, back when forecasting was poor, they always used to add one to the wind strength to be on the safe side. Now forecasting has got pretty good, they stopped doing that so it's far more likely to get wind right at the top of the range.

That is pure guesswork with no basis in fact whatsoever. But I feel it's true so people should respect that.

 

[DoubleEnder]

I went round last year on a heavy old gaff cutter. It was fresh, I thought, and the sea was quite disturbed on the south of the island, but we were ok just a bit fed up (long story not relevant). However, I was surprised at the amount of distress calls and damage, and a very large catamaran inverted. Tomorrow’s forecast looks to be stronger than the wind in 2023. It must be worrying for the organisers if things could get to the point where there are too many casualties for the RNLI and other rescue services to cope.

 

[Mark-1]

It must be worrying for the organisers if things could get to the point where there are too many casualties for the RNLI and other rescue services to cope.

That's certainly true, but with 1000 boats about competiors ought to be able to go some way to rescuing each other.

I do wonder that the implications for the RNLI RIBS are. Asking RIB crews to sit in big chop at low speeds waiting for a shouts seems completely unreasonable to me, it will be worse for them than competitors from a 'comfort' POV.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

Windycator v2 - Live weather reports from coastal stations and offshore buoys

St Cats seems to be lining up with the forecasts about now. Needles over, but it always is in a SW as the funneling effect isn't picked up.

With the size grid they use, it just isn’t possible, is it. Racing in the western Solent, we find Lymington platform to be the best guide. Hurst is always noticeably higher, no matter what the wind direction. The Needles coastwatch is almost always higher again. At our home, we usually have about 2/3 of that, we are protected from the SW by Tennyson Down. Unless there’s too much south in it.

 

[flaming]

It will not surprise me at all if the multis get canceled given that they run at roughly one flipped per windy RTI.... And this is the windiest since at least 2011.

Clearly the sportsboats will be cancelled. What else is cancelled by the organisers, and what they leave up to the skippers will be interesting.

 

[st599]

I went round last year on a heavy old gaff cutter. It was fresh, I thought, and the sea was quite disturbed on the south of the island, but we were ok just a bit fed up (long story not relevant). However, I was surprised at the amount of distress calls and damage, and a very large catamaran inverted. Tomorrow’s forecast looks to be stronger than the wind in 2023. It must be worrying for the organisers if things could get to the point where there are too many casualties for the RNLI and other rescue services to cope.

In 2011, there were 10s of MOB at the Needles turn, but the forecast for the weekend is 10 knots lower than that year. It was very odd racing down the Solent hearing multiple Maydays being worked.

It will not surprise me at all if the multis get canceled given that they run at roughly one flipped per windy RTI.... And this is the windiest since at least 2011.

There were at least 4 in 2011