RTI this Saturday

flaming

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I'm supposed to be doing it but watching the forecasts carefully. According to Met office at St Cats we'll have 40 something knot gusts during the early afternoon, that might have put paid to our race.
The various models seem pretty aligned in terms of the basic breeze and direction right now. Gust strength is varying wildly though. 40 on a base of 22 feels somewhat out of kilter with the rest as it stands.
 

Boathook

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The various models seem pretty aligned in terms of the basic breeze and direction right now. Gust strength is varying wildly though. 40 on a base of 22 feels somewhat out of kilter with the rest as it stands.
When I was out a few weeks back, some of the gusts added 15 knots onto the average. Ideally I should have put in a second reef but then I wouldn't have anough sail area for the lulls.
 

Never Grumble

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The various models seem pretty aligned in terms of the basic breeze and direction right now. Gust strength is varying wildly though. 40 on a base of 22 feels somewhat out of kilter with the rest as it stands.
We're certainly going to go to Cowes on Friday monitor and probably start, see how the conditions are for the beat down to the Needles.
 

flaming

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Not saying it can’t happen but right now UKV, the met office’s own model, is the only model pushing gusts into the 40s.
When I was out a few weeks back, some of the gusts added 15 knots onto the average. Ideally I should have put in a second reef but then I wouldn't have anough sail area for the lulls.
 

flaming

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From the RTI website

RACE DAY - Saturday 15th June​

SW 14-18 gusting 25 kts for the start, veering WSW 22-27 gusting 34 kts at the Needles by 1000. By noon it should be strongest, WSW 25-30 gusting 36 kts past St Catherine's . It should ease a little by mid-afternoon, WSW 22-26 gusting 34 kts. By dusk the Solent should have WSW 15-20 gusting 25 kts. Expect a mixture of squall clusters & sunny patches through the day. Some of the squalls will be heavy, but thankfully will pass through quickly. Temperatures should be 14- 16°C on land, with wind chill & spray on the water this will feel like around 10°C, and the sea surface temperature should be 15-16°C. It is summer, after all.

We have an 0630 start, and in that breeze a 7 hour lap is expected, hopefully less. So roughly speaking expecting to be at the needles around 8, St Cats by 9:30, Bembridge by 11, then finish circa 1.

So might actually be back in the Solent before the biggest breeze comes through. Jib choice could be tricky, as the jib I'd want to get off a start line and hold a lane in a big fleet in 14-18, is not the jib I'd want to go out through the needles channel in 25+.
 

Never Grumble

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From the RTI website

RACE DAY - Saturday 15th June​

SW 14-18 gusting 25 kts for the start, veering WSW 22-27 gusting 34 kts at the Needles by 1000. By noon it should be strongest, WSW 25-30 gusting 36 kts past St Catherine's . It should ease a little by mid-afternoon, WSW 22-26 gusting 34 kts. By dusk the Solent should have WSW 15-20 gusting 25 kts. Expect a mixture of squall clusters & sunny patches through the day. Some of the squalls will be heavy, but thankfully will pass through quickly. Temperatures should be 14- 16°C on land, with wind chill & spray on the water this will feel like around 10°C, and the sea surface temperature should be 15-16°C. It is summer, after all.
At Bramble Bank the UK met office were forecasting 26 knot gusts this morning but so far according to Brmablenet they haven't exceeded 19. I'm in a 33 ft cruising yacht so we wont be round in 7 hours and I reckon we would be approaching St Caths when the strongest gusts are due. still to make a decision as to whether we sail or not.
 

st599

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What's the tide doing for the beat to the Needles? Could be a bit sporty if it's ebbing against the breeze!
Starts always seem to be timed so the cruisers arrive at the Needles with maximum wind against tide.

Last time it was this windy, half the RNLI were sat at the Needles, never seen so many upside catamarans in my life.
 

Wandering Star

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All sounds very exciting - never raced in my life but love watching and reading about the RTI. Hope everyone has a great day and there aren’t too many casualties!
 

flaming

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I see the organisers have sent out a message about the string winds cancellations etc.
I'm close to giving it a miss.
With the forecast as it is I suspect significant numbers will give it a miss.

We've been out in some pretty strong winds already this season and acquitted ourselves pretty well, which coupled with the fact that (unusually for RTI) I have a very experienced crew on board is giving me the confidence to think that the forecast is not outside of our capabilities. Outside of the comfort zone maybe, but not outside of what the boat and crew ought to be able to cope with.

The nice sails are staying at home though....
 

Mark-1

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"We will only cancel fleets where there is a significant chance that the majority of the fleet could get into difficulties and risk injury to the crew"


Round the Island Race - Latest news


That's a weird test to apply. I'm all for not cancelling ever and letting individuals decide for themselves but if you're going to make decisions on behalf of competitors I'd have thought you'd want to cancel a fleet well before you reckon the "majority" will be in significant risk of difficulty and risking injury. 49% would already be too many.
 

flaming

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"We will only cancel fleets where there is a significant chance that the majority of the fleet could get into difficulties and risk injury to the crew"


Round the Island Race - Latest news


That's a weird test to apply. I'm all for not cancelling ever and letting individuals decide for themselves but if you're going to make decisions on behalf of competitors I'd have thought you'd want to cancel a fleet well before you reckon the "majority" will be in significant risk of difficulty and risking injury. 49% would already be too many.
I think that's badly worded.

If I was in a sportsboat or J70 etc I'd be making other plans for Saturday given that statement.
 

st599

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"We will only cancel fleets where there is a significant chance that the majority of the fleet could get into difficulties and risk injury to the crew"


Round the Island Race - Latest news


That's a weird test to apply. I'm all for not cancelling ever and letting individuals decide for themselves but if you're going to make decisions on behalf of competitors I'd have thought you'd want to cancel a fleet well before you reckon the "majority" will be in significant risk of difficulty and risking injury. 49% would already be too many.
I don't think you can have a policy of not cancelling ever, even though the Racing Rules of Sailing say it's up to competitors to decide, under UK law there's still a requirement on the organisers.
 

blush2

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Down SW the Eddystone pursuit race on Saturday has been cancelled because of concern over wind against tide effects.
 
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