dom
Well-known member
JD, you are of course quite correct that extrapolations need to be used carefully. The number of deaths is also not the best thing to choose when trying to judge where we are in the spread of the epidemic, the total number of infections would be much better. But we know that without masses of testing that number is impossible to measure with any accuracy.
Sensible stuff, although bear in mind that there is minimal data on Covid-19 and the testing procedures are rapidly evolving. While the data remains somewhat uncertain, the major UK hospital trusts (and others) are working in the basis that current lab reagents deliver a c.30% false negative rate.
Yet early models of getting the population back to work mostly assume that all test positives are truly positives and that all test negatives are truly negatives. If this is wrong - and it is - then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.
Which yet again illustrates why there is no overreaction going on here: the world'd brightest scientists, doctors, paramedics, epidemiologists, and mathematicians simply need time to collect, analyse, and dispassionately get their heads around the data.
Only then can an informed decision be taken and jumping the gun is not smart. Even Trump now gets this!