Over reaction to current situation

[dom]

JD, you are of course quite correct that extrapolations need to be used carefully. The number of deaths is also not the best thing to choose when trying to judge where we are in the spread of the epidemic, the total number of infections would be much better. But we know that without masses of testing that number is impossible to measure with any accuracy.

Sensible stuff, although bear in mind that there is minimal data on Covid-19 and the testing procedures are rapidly evolving. While the data remains somewhat uncertain, the major UK hospital trusts (and others) are working in the basis that current lab reagents deliver a c.30% false negative rate.

Yet early models of getting the population back to work mostly assume that all test positives are truly positives and that all test negatives are truly negatives. If this is wrong - and it is - then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.

Which yet again illustrates why there is no overreaction going on here: the world'd brightest scientists, doctors, paramedics, epidemiologists, and mathematicians simply need time to collect, analyse, and dispassionately get their heads around the data.

Only then can an informed decision be taken and jumping the gun is not smart. Even Trump now gets this!

 

[bedouin]

Sensible stuff, although bear in mind that there is minimal data on Covid-19 and the testing procedures are rapidly evolving. While the data remains somewhat uncertain, the major UK hospital trusts (and others) are working in the basis that current lab reagents deliver a c.30% false negative rate.

A test that misses 30% of cases is worse than useless, either for "Contact Tracing" or for giving you convidence that a sick worker can return to the front line.

 

[pvb]

Alright, let's say to avoid increasing taxes in future.

No, it was, as I said, suppressed because it would alarm people.

“There has been a reluctance to put Cygnus out in the public domain because frankly it would terrify people,” said the former senior government source yesterday.

This is a quote from the Telegraph's report on how Cygnus was ignored.

Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government

 

[dom]

A test that misses 30% of cases is worse than useless, either for "Contact Tracing" or for giving you convidence that a sick worker can return to the front line.

Absolutely, which is why the clinical advice is to keep treating for Covid-19 where symptoms are inconsistent with a negative test result. Apparently, the tests become more accurate as the illness progresses and antigens build up, but once again the data just isn't there yet to allow accurate modelling.

BTW, the Government has been particularly poor in recognising these statistical problems.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Italy has averaged 750 CV-19 deaths per day for the last 2 weeks and has 4000 people in critical condition - double the normal daily death rate.

Not that I am doubting you, but do you have a source for that "double the normal daily death rate"? I have seen reports from Italy that most of those who died were terminally ill or very old, so many of these will not be in addition to the expected rate. Italy recorded about 14,000 CV deaths in March and normally has about 70,000 deaths per month; I haven't seen any overall figure for March 2020.

 

[Poignard]

No, it was, as I said, suppressed because it would alarm people.

“There has been a reluctance to put Cygnus out in the public domain because frankly it would terrify people,” said the former senior government source yesterday.

This is a quote from the Telegraph's report on how Cygnus was ignored.

Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government

.

And here's another quote from the article you cite:

'These exercises are supposed to prepare government for something like this - but it appears they were aware of the problem but didn’t do much about it.

“We’ve been quite surprised at the lack of coherent planning for a pandemic on this scale. It’s basically a lack of attention to what would be needed to prevent a disease like this from overwhelming the system. All the flexibility has been pared away so it’s difficult to react quickly. Nothing is ready to go.”'

If you read on, it becomes clear that far from a deliberate decision being taken not to alarm the public, the Government simply chose not to act upon the inconvenient findings of the Cygnus test; to brush it under the carpet instead.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Germany has an excellent healthcare system .... but it will break in the next few weeks too. I'm sitting in the middle of it, just outside Bavarias capital, and Germany is following the same grim death-curve as every other european country, just lagging a bit.

A mathematician writes ...

It is very important to remember that there is only one exponential curve which can be fitted to any other by scaling either axis or both. It is therefore not possible, simply on the basis of an exponential curve, to distinguish a lag from a slower growth.

 

[JumbleDuck]

A test that misses 30% of cases is worse than useless, either for "Contact Tracing" or for giving you convidence that a sick worker can return to the front line.

It is, however, fine for estimating the number of cases in a population - the crucial figure which we simply don't have - because you can test people at random and then bump the positive rate up by 43%.

 

[matt1]

According to Tom Cunliffe's latest video on seasickness he is self isolating as we can't go sailing and have to take this thing seriously. Enough said in my view ;-)

 

[JumbleDuck]

This is a quote from the Telegraph's report on how Cygnus was ignored.

Can you imagine how the Telegraph would have screamed had it been suggested that public money be used to prepare for a potential future crisis?

 

[pvb]

Can you imagine how the Telegraph would have screamed had it been suggested that public money be used to prepare for a potential future crisis?

Don't be ridiculous, countries do that all the time.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Can you imagine how the Telegraph would have screamed had it been suggested that public money be used to prepare for a potential future crisis?

Don't be ridiculous, countries do that all the time.

You're suggesting that we do the same as ... foreigners? That'll go down a treat in Tunbridge Wells.

 

[Triassic]

Can you imagine how the Telegraph would have screamed had it been suggested that public money be used to prepare for a potential future crisis?

Sod the Telegraph, just imagine how the population would have reacted...... Even now with everything we know about a real crisis there are people refusing to do what's needed to deal with it.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Sod the Telegraph, just imagine how the population would have reacted...... Even now with everything we know about a real crisis there are people refusing to do what's needed to deal with it.

Good point. Basically, every country is getting the pandemic it voted for.

 

[Baggywrinkle]

Not that I am doubting you, but do you have a source for that "double the normal daily death rate"? I have seen reports from Italy that most of those who died were terminally ill or very old, so many of these will not be in addition to the expected rate. Italy recorded about 14,000 CV deaths in March and normally has about 70,000 deaths per month; I haven't seen any overall figure for March 2020.

Italy has a death rate of approx 10 people per 1000 per year. So with a population of 60M that makes, on average 1800 per day. The link to death rates is below. When I said double, I meant those currently in critical condition (In ICUs and requiring intensive medical intervention) - currently 4000 people - is double the normal daily death rate of approx 2000 people.

Italy Death Rate 1950-2020

Italy Coronavirus: 115,242 Cases and 13,915 Deaths - Worldometer

Even if the people dying are ill or old, they would normally be spread out over a year as death rates are quoted per year, we would not expect all the terminally ill and old people who would normally die in a year to die in 2-3 weeks, and they would not be concentrated in a few regions either.

I guess you are arguing that the cause of death is simply being switched from pneumonia, dementia, cancer or whatever, to CV-19 and roughly the same number of people are dying? ... but if this was the case, why would the crematoriums be overflowing and the ICU numbers woefully inadequate?

Patients that survive the infection are spending an average of 15 days in intensive care (ICU), and at least 10 days in each case.

This makes sobering reading ...

Analysis of COVID-19 data on numbers in intensive care from Italy: European Society of Anaesthesiology (ESA) - ESA HQ

 

[FlyingGoose]

A mathematician writes ...

It is very important to remember that there is only one exponential curve which can be fitted to any other by scaling either axis or both. It is therefore not possible, simply on the basis of an exponential curve, to distinguish a lag from a slower growth.

For anyone who cares:

Yes so the exponential of the Y to the T is equal in all variations of the linear curve of the axis , which will create an associative property linked to binomial coefficients
which gives you an outcome of I have no F8888ing Idea

 

[jordanbasset]

Germany seems to manage to have many times the number of ICU beds than the UK, and they are very careful with their money.

The NHS was warned it needed to plan for a pandemic, but ignored the warnings.

The NHS isn't underfunded, it's badly run. But no government has the balls to actually tackle the problem; it's easier just to keep throwing money at it.

We spend substantially less than Germany per head of population
How does UK healthcare spending compare with other countries? - Office for National Statistics
In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare ... of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)

So Germany spend around 25% more per person for their health care system. If we are throwing money at the health service then Germany must be drowning in it
In cash terms, for England alone, we would need to spend around £32 billion each and every year extra to get level with Germany.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Italy has a death rate of approx 10 people per 1000 per year. So with a population of 60M that makes, on average 1800 per day. The link to death rates is below. When I said double, I meant those currently in critical condition (In ICUs and requiring intensive medical intervention) - currently 4000 people - is double the normal daily death rate of approx 2000 people.

Without wanting to be argumentative, why compare people in ICu with death rate? Wouldn't it be better to compare deaths with death rate?

I guess you are arguing that the cause of death is simply being switched from pneumonia, dementia, cancer or whatever, to CV-19 and roughly the same number of people are dying? ... but if this was the case, why would the crematoriums be overflowing and the ICU numbers woefully inadequate?

Clearly more people are dying than usual, and in restricted areas so far, which is why neither ICUs nor crematoriums can cope there. However, it really isn't clear what the long term effect is going to be, or even the medium term one. I have seen reports (BBC, I think) that the overwhelming majority of people dying with cv are either terminally ill or very old ... which if true may mean that despite the current crisis the population in a year's time may be more-or-less the same people as they would have been without cv.

That's not to downplay any death, of course, just to say that at this stage it really is very difficult to tell what the overall effect is going to be.

 

[AndrewfromFal]

Sweden seems to have found a happy middle way. Yes, they have deaths but are managing those.

I am the only one that thinks a flattened curve delays (expected) death rather than saving lives?

We all (a least the healthy) need to get exposed to this at some time if we do not want accept permanent lockdown.

Originally the government's policy was centred around 'herd immunity' and 'taking the pain' up front; - it wasn't a sudden realisation that the number of deaths was too high that led them to change tack; it was that they cottoned on to the fact that if you take such an approach the NHS ends up as collateral damage.

 

[pvb]

We spend substantially less than Germany per head of population
How does UK healthcare spending compare with other countries? - Office for National Statistics
In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare ... of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736)

One reason Germany spends more is that, compared with the UK, it has a larger percentage of its population aged over 65, plus a larger percentage with multiple chronic conditions.