Brexit

[Tranona]

After Brexit, the reverse will be true, a cut in pensions will be based on "because we left the EU" argument. See Osborne today.

You are very confusing. First you say that it is the EU that would force a cut in pensions (as in Greece), now you are saying osborne will do it. Make up your mind.

The chances of Osborne getting a budget with £30bn in cuts through the current parliament is zero - whatever the outcome of the referendum.

 

[RAI]

Very little tax income except for VAT but in common with other resident boat owners we spend thousands of euros here (those in marinas spend lots more) and that generates employment.

Is that an official figure, thousands of Euros? Do politicians get out of bed for so little?

 

[RAI]

Not the case. We have Brazillian and other South American friends who are working in and have residence in Portugal and come and go freely into the UK. Whether they can work there I don't know but they have free entry.

Brazilians and South Africans can visit the UK without having residence in Portugal too. Do the ones from Portugal get the right to live and work in the UK by being resident in Portugal?

 

[RAI]

Humm, yep so if Osborne cannot hack the UK economy outside the EU then the answer is simple, sack Osborne, for what Osborne is really saying, is that he is useless outside the EU, that's the only reason that our UK cannot recover and leap ahead.

I think what Osborne is trying to say is that if Brexit occurs and the Treasury report on Brexit effects is correct, then any Chancellor would have to bring in a budget to tackle the new situation of having 30 bn less squids to play with. Osborne could well be thrown out and a Brexiteer chosen Chancellor installed. Are you saying that this new one would just jack the deficit by 30 bn? Problem solved?

 

[RAI]

You are very confusing. First you say that it is the EU that would force a cut in pensions (as in Greece), now you are saying osborne will do it. Make up your mind.

Sorry to confuse. What I was trying to say is that, in or out, the EU will be blamed for what ever austerity measures are imposed by which ever chancellor.
Regarding Greece. It was the Greek government that cut pensions. Yes, the troika suggested that as an austerity measure, but they did not move an army in, they withheld further loans; so I put "forced " in inverted commas. Shortage of cash can "force" politicians to do unpopular things. Osborne is saying he might be "forced" to take unpopular measures after Brexit.

 

[GrahamM376]

Easy to see when politicians are lying, their lips are moving. One minute the PM is threatening to leave Europe if he didn't get changes (which in reality will have little if any effect) saying we could manage fine without them, the next minute he's trying to convince us to stay because we're better off

 

[maby]

Brazilians and South Africans can visit the UK without having residence in Portugal too. Do the ones from Portugal get the right to live and work in the UK by being resident in Portugal?

I don't think that residency grants them any rights here, but holding a Portuguese passport would. I don't know much about Portugal, but Spain certainly makes it relatively easy for the nationals of South American countries with long histories of involvement with Spain to obtain Spanish citizenship.

 

[RAI]

I don't think that residency grants them any rights here, but holding a Portuguese passport would. I don't know much about Portugal, but Spain certainly makes it relatively easy for the nationals of South American countries with long histories of involvement with Spain to obtain Spanish citizenship.

I think Spain now applies the same rules as other EU countries, so usually 10 years of residency and working required (or 5 years for some special cases, like EU pensioners). I read the UK gives the most naturalisation in Europe.

 

[colind3782]

That will be the problem for those based in any EC country. IIRC Non EC boats can only stay 18 months with an extension to 2 years if applied for. If we do exit, there will be protracted discussions and agreements as I'm sure many countries wouldn't want to lose the income from thousands of ex pats based there.

I do have dual nationality with an Irish passport but, at present, Ireland has no equivalent to the SSR and small craft are registered as a "ship", although I'm happy to be corrected on that!

 

[RAI]

Easy to see when politicians are lying, their lips are moving. One minute the PM is threatening to leave Europe if he didn't get changes (which in reality will have little if any effect) saying we could manage fine without them, the next minute he's trying to convince us to stay because we're better off

He actually achieved a surprising amount. But the Brexiteers repeat so often that they are worthless, that people who have not read them believe the propaganda.

 

[Tranona]

He actually achieved a surprising amount. But the Brexiteers repeat so often that they are worthless, that people who have not read them believe the propaganda.

What was surprising is that he could actually recommend to stay given how little he achieved in his "negotiations" - both in absolute terms and in comparison with what he claimed he was going after. General consensus (from those who have read and understand) is that the changes he claims are largely worthless.

Note that he NEVER mentions what a good deal he got as a basis for staying. His only approach is to frighten those who show signs of voting leave.

 

[RAI]

General consensus (from those who have read and understand) is that the changes he claims are largely worthless.

I'll go one further, if accepted as such, they put the UK into the permanent second class dog-in-the-manger role. No big change there.

 

[Oldfellah]

It is very strange that when we have the most unusual situation in which most economists, the trade union movement, the IMF, the Bank of England, The Institute of Fiscal Studies, just about every living Ex Prime Minister and Chancellor and the vast majority of business's all stating that to leave the EU will be disastrous for the UK that there are so many laymen that know better ? If you go online and read any serious newspaper, The Economist and articles by so called 'experts' they all agree that staying in the EU, whatever the downside' is by far the best option for the UK and yet there seem to be a host of Leave enthusiasts that know so much more ! Oh for such wisdom.

Try reading this - http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21700592-brexit-briefs

 

[GrahamM376]

I think Spain now applies the same rules as other EU countries, so usually 10 years of residency and working required (or 5 years for some special cases, like EU pensioners). I read the UK gives the most naturalisation in Europe.

In Portugal, I've a feeling the period was extended last year but up to then, IIRC, Brazilians used to get a 1 year residence permit which could be extended at the end of that for 2 years if they could produce a contract of employment and the same again at the end of the 2 year period. Then after the 5 years, they could apply for permanent residence. With something like 4 women to every man in Brazil and many of the men gay, many come here looking for husbands.

 

[Tranona]

and yet there seem to be a host of Leave enthusiasts that know so much more ! Oh for such wisdom.

That is because, as all the main Brexit proponents say, the referendum is on a matter of principle rather than just on economics - as it always has been. Dave and his mates concentrate on the economic aspects (in a negative way) because they don't have a case on any of the other issues. You can see this in the polls that identify the issues that concern remainers and leavers. The former major on the economic aspects and the leavers on sovereignty, control etc.

Note also that all the economic arguments are about guesses as to how much worse it would be in the short term after Brexit rather than whether the UK would do well (or better) in the long term in the EU. Given the poor (and worsening) state of most of the EU economies it is difficult to have confidence about the economy in the future if remain wins.

 

[maxi77]

That is because, as all the main Brexit proponents say, the referendum is on a matter of principle rather than just on economics - as it always has been. Dave and his mates concentrate on the economic aspects (in a negative way) because they don't have a case on any of the other issues. You can see this in the polls that identify the issues that concern remainers and leavers. The former major on the economic aspects and the leavers on sovereignty, control etc.

Note also that all the economic arguments are about guesses as to how much worse it would be in the short term after Brexit rather than whether the UK would do well (or better) in the long term in the EU. Given the poor (and worsening) state of most of the EU economies it is difficult to have confidence about the economy in the future if remain wins.

From what I can see many Brexit supporters prefer to believe the magic economics of Boris that the established experts and believe that on the instant of Brexit a new golden age of prosperity will happen. I heard one though base his support for Brexit on a dislike of Cameron and Geldorf.

I suppose in the end we will get the result we deserve.

 

[Tranona]

From what I can see many Brexit supporters prefer to believe the magic economics of Boris that the established experts and believe that on the instant of Brexit a new golden age of prosperity will happen. I heard one though base his support for Brexit on a dislike of Cameron and Geldorf.

I suppose in the end we will get the result we deserve.

Not sure that is the case. If you look at the history of the core eurosceptic/brexit arguments it has always been on the principles, not the economics and as I suggested earlier all the polls on those committed to leave show their concerns are not primarily economic.

 

[prv]

all the polls on those committed to leave show their concerns are not primarily economic.

And that's what scares the bejesus out of me.

I recently resigned from the UK branch of a huge multinational corporation to go work at a smaller, younger, more dynamic high-tech engineering firm based in Portsmouth. I start in two weeks. The UK-only market probably isn't enormous, we'll need to sell all across the developed world. Quite a lot of which is still Europe.

The previous place was more or less insulated from what happened in the UK; I was physically here but my work was sold by the company all around the world, all the operations and policies were pretty much globalised and it has cash reserves in the billions. Moving to a small UK company suddenly starts to seem like a real risk when so much of the population is seemingly willing to trash the economy just so that they can be ignored by unelected Whitehall bureaucrats instead of unelected Brussels bureaucrats

Pete

 

[RAI]

In Portugal, I've a feeling the period was extended last year but up to then, IIRC, Brazilians used to get a 1 year residence permit which could be extended at the end of that for 2 years if they could produce a contract of employment and the same again at the end of the 2 year period. Then after the 5 years, they could apply for permanent residence. With something like 4 women to every man in Brazil and many of the men gay, many come here looking for husbands.

I suppose the Portuguese treat the Brazilians the same way as the UK treats Common Wealth citizens, which is the same as EU citizens when it comes to residence in the UK. However, the Brexiteers argue that it is the EU citizens that are free to come here (shock horror) the Commonwealth citizens with the same rights are not regarded as a threat.
https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration/eu-eea-commonwealth

 

[GrahamM376]

I suppose the Portuguese treat the Brazilians the same way as the UK treats Common Wealth citizens, which is the same as EU citizens when it comes to residence in the UK. However, the Brexiteers argue that it is the EU citizens that are free to come here (shock horror) the Commonwealth citizens with the same rights are not regarded as a threat.
https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration/eu-eea-commonwealth

Problem is, those of us who want out are all lumped into the same bucket whereas reasons vary greatly. My wife of 46 years is an immigrant but despite that I'm not against immigration, just want to have some control of who we allow in and be able to rid ourselves of undesirables without being told we can't. However, as far as I'm concerned, immigration is only one part of the discussion which is far too complex to discuss here.