"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[MapisM]

TBH I’d be more interested to hear what Ron Holland has to say about it than Giovanni Constantino

It would be interesting to hear from just about everyone and their dog, rather than Costantino (with no 'n' before the 's').
The guy is in fact an investor, whose experience back in the days when Bayesian was built only stretched to furniture industry, before he started collecting bankrupted boatbuilders.

Describing him as "founder of The Italian Sea group, owner of Perini asset", while formally correct, is totally misleading because sort of suggests that he founded also Perini, which couldn't be more far from truth and is almost insulting towards Fabio Perini, the real visionary behind the boats with his own name.
In sharp contrast with TISG, which is just a newco established by Costantino in 2009, to take over Tecnomar first, and other brands later - Perini being the latest addition in 2022, i.e. the day before yesterday, in practice.
To put his nautical technical experience and competence in perspective, in an interview of a few years ago he proudly declared that at TISG they don't see themselves as boatbuilders, but rather as a luxury brand - 'nuff said.

For these and other reasons, I believe that keeping his big mouth shut would have been appropriate and more respectful, regardless of whatever journos could make of it. After all, it's not like Perinis are sold to Daily Wail readers or any other folks who choose a superyacht based on derogatory articles or social media, I reckon.

 

[Mark-1]

If you have just watched that video, someone on sailing anarchy has overlaid it with some lines... and conjecture..

Bottom of the page at the link below..
56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

Thanks found it.

If that guy's analysis is correct it was all way slower than I imagined which totally explains the crew escaping and some guests.

PS: That thread is superb.

 

[h20man]

If you have just watched that video, someone on sailing anarchy has overlaid it with some lines... and conjecture..

Bottom of the page at the link below..
56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

depending on preferences.. you may go to a different post.. this is the sailinganarchy post.. 56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

some knowledgeable people there..

some not so much...

zero moderation....

But that analysis is great...

 

[Mark-1]

depending on preferences.. you may go to a different post.. this is the sailinganarchy post.. 56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

some knowledgeable people there..

some not so much...

zero moderation....

But that analysis is great...

Yeah, stunning. How much time does that guy have.

And I've found this suggesting an obvious opening for ingress:

56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

Terrific thread.

 

[Martin_J]

Whichever page the link takes you to, it was page 12 on the sailing anarchy thread that analysed the mast lights in the video (graphically).

Although as per H2Oman's later post, page 44 now has the video stills but with additional AIS charts...

 

[Steve_N]

And I've found this suggesting an obvious opening for ingress:

56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

This is the jetski launching hatch/landing on Perini 56M 'Selene' (AKA Parsifal IV, Selene (again) and CAOZ14), a sistership. Port side aft.


May or may not be the same detail on Bayesian of course although she has the same hull opening.

 

[mikegunn]

The press seem to persist in blaming the high wind on a tornado or waterspout. Having survived a couple of close encounters with nighttime tornadoes in the Mediterranean, they were both characterised by high winds which boxed the compass over a short time period. Far more threatening in my experience are katabatic winds. I’ve been anchored in several locations in the Mediterranean and experienced their wrath. Typically both the air and sea will be almost motionless. Suddenly a lump of cold air will fall, unseen, from the top of a nearby mountain, cascade down its flanks and spread out seawards along the adjacent coastline. Wind speed close to the shore can rise from zero to more than 70 knots in under twenty seconds and persist in strength and direction for perhaps five minutes or so. Ten minutes later, all will be calm again. On one such occasion my vessel, a 12 M cruising catamaran, was hit beam on by a katabatic wind. Fortunately its anchor dragged allowing the vessel to slip to leeward, otherwise I fear it may well have capsized.
I mention katabatic winds as a possible culprit because the topography of Palermo lends itself to such a phenomenon. A coastal town backed by a relatively high mountain.
Mike

 

[Bajansailor]

The Perini Navi homepage appears to be 'down' - perhaps overloaded with hits?
https://www.perininavi.it/

However this part of the website is working - I could download a copy of their brochure for Bayesian here.
https://www.perininavi.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/bayesian-formerly-salute_brochure.pdf

I took a screen shot of the general arrangement drawing at the end of the brochure - here is a copy :


There is a solid watertight bulkhead between the owners cabin and the engine room - there are absolutely no opening doors or penetrations in this bulkhead.
At the aft end of the engine room there is an access door leading to the 'dock' area - and to what I presume is the engineer's cabin (positioned there for easy access to the engine room if there is an emergency).
I think it is very unlikely that the watertight door in the aft bulkhead of the engine room would have been left open - if it was open, then maybe the engineer was (coincidentally?) going in or out of the engine room at the time when the knock down occurred?
If so, this would be an unfortunate coincidence - especially as there are reports that the side shell door and the transom door might have been left open.
I can see why they might leave the transom door open, but I very much doubt that they would have left the side shell door open.
If both side shell and transom doors were open then sea water would have flooded into the dock area fairly quickly - if she was knocked down to port (I think she was?)

If the W/T door going to the engine room was closed properly then just this aft area would have flooded partially, until an equilibrium stage was reached.
If the W/T door WAS open, then water would have been able to flood into the engine room as well.
If water flooded in to the engine room (due to the W/T door being open) then it will still take some time (relatively) to fill the engine room via the open door.

She would have been built to at least a one compartment standard of subdivision, whereby any one major compartment could be flooded, and she would still stay afloat.
Even if the two aft 'technical area' compartments (outlined in yellow) were to flood, then she would be settling down by the stern - but there would still be a lot of reserve buoyancy forward of the bulkhead separating the engine room from the owners accommodation.
Yet she appears to have been simply knocked down and flooded very rapidly such that she was overwhelmed and sank relatively quickly.

There is probably a watertight door in the bulkhead between the dark blue passenger accommodation, and the pale blue crew accommodation.
The whole of the dark blue area appears to be one compartment, ie there is no further subdivision.
If water came flooding into the passenger accommodation from above, perhaps down the centreline staircase, then if this was the only compartment on the lower deck to be flooded, then I would have thought that the reserve buoyancy in the yellow and pale blue compartments should have kept her afloat.
Yet she sank very quickly.
If the watertight door between the crew accommodation and the passenger accommodation was open (perhaps because the crew were trying to get everybody up?) then water would have been able to flood into the yellow crew area as well - but this would have still taken some time relatively. The compartment would not have 'instantly' filled up.

As others have said, I very much doubt that anybody would have had hull portholes open (if they can open - I doubt it) or deck hatches open for ventilation - the air conditioning system would have been keeping everywhere (apart from the engine room) cool.
The engine room would have intake and exhaust ventilation blowers to supply air to the engines - I presume that these would have been operational to keep the generator(s) happy while at anchor.
Maybe water could have (also) entered via the ventilation intakes / exhausts if they were in the side of the superstructure?

It is all rather baffling

Edit to add this link from the FT - I don't think that Costantino should be gobbing off so happily blaming the crew for everything.
Subscribe to read

Edit again - I saw a photo in the catalogue (when I 'blew it up' to about 300%) of an opening port in one of the guest cabins - there is an obvious hinge on it, and a dogging down screw visible - but even so, I doubt that any of these would have been open.

 

[Portofino]

Thx for this Bajansailor ^ .
They do say in knock downs for the best outcome everybody has to be inside and all doors closed - obviously external hatches and doors windows/ port holes that’s a given .
This is what Costantino is saying .Technically he’s correct

The air vents at the side of the superstructure to engine room probably have flaps to close them in an emergency primary meant for fire ,but nether the less they can be closed. Hope I don’t get flamed for this but even my tiny boat has his feature , a toggle by the helm station . They are spring loaded cocked to snap shut at the pull of this toggle .

But even if the air vents were open I doubt in the 10-15 sec or longer in the knock down , or 30 degree heel ( or what ever ) position enough water if it filled the engine room your yellow space would sink it .Sure it would emerge stern down and the boat need a tug as the machinery would be damaged , but still “ unsinkable “

Flooding and impeding evacuation of the blue guest space only leaves the huge rear patio doors opening and water down flooding the internal stairs .

The “ tail door “ as Costantino refers to was reported open by the divers and according to him should have coped with flooding on its own , but he did say in his interview the ER bulkhead door should be closed and wasn’t sure if it was .Used the light vid from shore and the apparent power out to support his superstition it was open when water entered that tail door compartment.

When the boats lifted it will have been disturbed by the divers during the recovery , so the investigation will centre around what doors / hatches were open and unlatched when the divers first arrived paying partially attention to the latching as they may have swung closed while sinking and settling on the bottom .

Don’t know what the crew culture was onboard, but like the rest of us they must have had various degrees of foul weather experience inc at anchor being woken up and bugging out gone to bed with a plan B in the back of the mind ……who hasn’t sailing in the Med ?

 

[Portofino]

The press seem to persist in blaming the high wind on a tornado or waterspout. Having survived a couple of close encounters with nighttime tornadoes in the Mediterranean, they were both characterised by high winds which boxed the compass over a short time period. Far more threatening in my experience are katabatic winds. I’ve been anchored in several locations in the Mediterranean and experienced their wrath. Typically both the air and sea will be almost motionless. Suddenly a lump of cold air will fall, unseen, from the top of a nearby mountain, cascade down its flanks and spread out seawards along the adjacent coastline. Wind speed close to the shore can rise from zero to more than 70 knots in under twenty seconds and persist in strength and direction for perhaps five minutes or so. Ten minutes later, all will be calm again. On one such occasion my vessel, a 12 M cruising catamaran, was hit beam on by a katabatic wind. Fortunately its anchor dragged allowing the vessel to slip to leeward, otherwise I fear it may well have capsized.
I mention katabatic winds as a possible culprit because the topography of Palermo lends itself to such a phenomenon. A coastal town backed by a relatively high mountain.
Mike

Arn’t katabatics a day time phenomenon? Sun heats mountain rocks so by the afternoon………

The met was predictable a local yellow was issued and the fishing fleet port bound .
The “black swan “ was bad luck , unpredictable sure but survivable on a boat that large imho

It all depends on wether the “black swan “ blew open the rear patio doors causing the huge breach into the blue area ,and wether the internal WT door to the fwd crew was open and the fwd hatch / stairs to the crew area was open .

The crew will be measured on what most reasonable crew / skipper would have done in the circumstances.

From ALL the info thus far the sinking s swinging away from a act of god towards “ human error “ imho .

 

[38mess]

We got hit by a storm on our first charter in Corfu in the middle of the channel between the mainland and the island. I could see it over the hills, black clouds and lightning Within 5 minutes it hit us,Waves lightning and over 60knts of wind according to the instruments. Our Bav 49 was heeled over until the outboard on the rail was semi submerged, this on bare poles, as skipper I got everyone below and turned into the wind and waves. It lasted about 20 minutes. I had a feeling it could have knocked us flat. That was a learning curve.

 

[Mark L]

Arn’t katabatics a day time phenomenon? Sun heats mountain rocks so by the afternoon………

Opposite. Anabatic winds are a daytime phenomenon (as the sun heats the slopes) and generates warm air which rises, drawing air up the slope. Katabatic winds are generally a night-time / early morning phenomenon, as the higher ground cools faster than the surrounding plains/ seas. If you have ever sailed in Garda you will know the Pelèr which sets in after midnight and gives good sailing through the early morning. However, as you say, the met reports are fairly clear that this was not a Katabatic wind.

 

[westernman]

Can you back that up though?
Some of the sail training ships are essentially 'freighters in drag' and AIUI, freighters are unlikely to have >90 degrees AVS.
They do tend to have watertight compartments though, so tend to float upside down.

Historically, there have been a number of similar sized vessels sunk by squalls etc.
Pride of Baltimore springs to mind.

I'm curious to know what the design parameters are , and how much wind would it take to flatten the vessel.

I remember seeing somewhere that some one was giving a lecture about his theories of AVS and presenting a graph of different ships including their AVS. This was after another sail training ship had sunk with loss of life.

He showed that most of the ships which had sunk through being knocked down had a low AVS.

The Pride of Baltimore was a bit close to his limit but he was saying that it was probably OK. What he did not know was at the time of his lecture the Pride of Baltimore had just sunk.

That combination ensured that AVS (at a higher number) became part of the sail boat certification rules in the USA and UK.

 

[Portofino]

Opposite. Anabatic winds are a daytime phenomenon (as the sun heats the slopes) and generates warm air which rises, drawing air up the slope. Katabatic winds are generally a night-time / early morning phenomenon, as the higher ground cools faster than the surrounding plains/ seas. If you have ever sailed in Garda you will know the Pelèr which sets in after midnight and gives good sailing through the early morning. However, as you say, the met reports are fairly clear that this was not a Katabatic wind.

Thx for the clarity.

 

[AntarcticPilot]

Opposite. Anabatic winds are a daytime phenomenon (as the sun heats the slopes) and generates warm air which rises, drawing air up the slope. Katabatic winds are generally a night-time / early morning phenomenon, as the higher ground cools faster than the surrounding plains/ seas. If you have ever sailed in Garda you will know the Pelèr which sets in after midnight and gives good sailing through the early morning. However, as you say, the met reports are fairly clear that this was not a Katabatic wind.

True katabatic winds arise when air is chilled at a higher altitude ( for example, by a glacier or ice sheet) and is thus denser than air at sea level, so it flows rapidly down slope. It's entirely a density effect, and results in some of the highest sustained windspeed on earth; these occur on the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, where the density flow occurs over thousands of kilometres and is funnelled by the topography. Sustained (for many days or even weeks) wind speeds of well over 100kt have been recorded. They are, of course, a notorious danger in the Straits of Magellan.

The term is often used of orographic winds, but that's incorrect.

 

[Chiara’s slave]

True katabatic winds arise when air is chilled at a higher altitude ( for example, by a glacier or ice sheet) and is thus denser than air at sea level, so it flows rapidly down slope. It's entirely a density effect, and results in some of the highest sustained windspeed on earth; these occur on the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, where the density flow occurs over thousands of kilometres and is funnelled by the topography. Sustained (for many days or even weeks) wind speeds of well over 100kt have been recorded. They are, of course, a notorious danger in the Straits of Magellan.

The term is often used of orographic winds, but that's incorrect.

South Georgia too, I am told. But I can’t imagine the temperature gradient required for it in Palermo.

 

[Steve_N]

I'm confused by references to the tail/transom door being a source of flooding; in the attached sistership picture the 'door' opens onto to a set of steps and isn't an opening into the vessel's interior. The plans posted above by Bajansailor also seem to depict this arrangement, the toys' dock area being accessed via the side door.

 

[Roberto]

True katabatic winds arise when air is chilled at a higher altitude ( for example, by a glacier or ice sheet) and is thus denser than air at sea level, so it flows rapidly down slope. It's entirely a density effect, and results in some of the highest sustained windspeed on earth; these occur on the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, where the density flow occurs over thousands of kilometres and is funnelled by the topography. Sustained (for many days or even weeks) wind speeds of well over 100kt have been recorded. They are, of course, a notorious danger in the Straits of Magellan.

Much nearer to us, Bora wind in the Northern Adriatic; accumulation of cold air on the Karst plateau 1-2k m high which then spills downslope. I have a distant personal story with that wind, even gave the name to one of my daughters.

 

[Bajansailor]

I'm confused by references to the tail/transom door being a source of flooding; in the attached sistership picture the 'door' opens onto to a set of steps and isn't an opening into the vessel's interior. The plans posted above by Bajansailor also seem to depict this arrangement, the toys' dock area being accessed via the side door to the aft compartment,

View attachment 181902

Thank you for this photo - that explains a lot.
I was trying to figure out from the GA plan how they could have access from the stern door to the aft compartment, but your photo confirms that the only access is via the shell door on the port side.

 

[AntarcticPilot]

South Georgia too, I am told. But I can’t imagine the temperature gradient required for it in Palermo.

Anywhere with glaciers at high elevation and a clear path to sea level will experience them. Although you are perfectly correct about South Georgia, it isn't something that is usually remarked on. I managed the project that created www.sggis.gov.gs, and have two papers on the glaciology of South Georgia.