"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[Roberto]

Describing him as "founder of The Italian Sea group, owner of Perini asset", while formally correct, is totally misleading because sort of suggests that he founded also Perini, which couldn't be more far from truth and is almost insulting towards Fabio Perini, the real visionary behind the boats with his own name.

To be clear, I used the wording of the article, I personnally could not care less who he really is or what it does.
Maybe it goes along with other newspaper interviews of "experienced skippers" saying one should not anchor when bad weather is forecast, "experienced surveyors" talking about 20cm thick steel masts (sic), "experienced maritime lawyers" saying the captain should sink with the ship, or other similar amenities the press has provided during these days.

 

[Portofino]

I'm confused by references to the tail/transom door being a source of flooding; in the attached sistership picture the 'door' opens onto to a set of steps and isn't an opening into the vessel's interior. The plans posted above by Bajansailor also seem to depict this arrangement, the toys' dock area being accessed via the side door.

View attachment 181902

That’s just a fancy bathing platform .It’s not really a door as such .

The “tail door “ I was referring to was from a translation of Cosintinos interview which I took as the side door .
Because he said from that compartment there was a WT door to the ER ….which all makes sense .
Boat is laying on its side on the seabed the port side door visible to divers as reported open .As post # .338 .

Flooding this compartment ONLY when allegedly left open apparently shouldn’t lead to a catastrophic sinking according to him .
Looking at the schematics I think he has a valid point .

 

[E39mad]

Thank you for this photo - that explains a lot.
I was trying to figure out from the GA plan how they could have access from the stern door to the aft compartment, but your photo confirms that the only access is via the shell door on the port side.

Interesting - I'd be highly surprised if the shell door was left open overnight, not only for weather but for security reasons. It is standard practice for crew to put everything (tenders, toys etc) away at the end of the day/evening.

 

[Seven Spades]

This is by far and away the best analysis of what is likely to have happened.

It seems that it is normal practice to only lower the keel when sailing because they make a noise if left in the down position when at anchor and that disturbs the guests.

Reading between the lines the yacht designer is suggesting that there needs to be legislation that will force a design change. The pressure on designers is to make the "biggest" "fastest" "prettiest" and most expensive super-yachts for bragging rights of the owners. he suggests that this is compromising safety. The video of the yacht at anchor in New Zealand being knocked flat at anchor and immediatly righting itself speaks volumes and in the future these yachts probably need to have long keels not deep retractable keels.

The video debunks the nonsense put out by The Italian Yacht Group, who were responsible for the design of the yacht.

 

[Mark-1]

What I hadn't realized when this all kicked off is the AVS is something like 73 with the board up and there are all manner of openings that would have hallowed large amounts of water in long before that.

So I came to this assuming there was a knockdown which should have been survivable on the basis that the yacht in the other video popped right back upright.

Sounds like that's not the case. It's entirely possible it was knocked down and capsized to the point where the mast touched the bottom and sank in that attitude. Something I assumed wasn't possible.

We don't even know if there really was a waterspout, some other rare event or just a 'normal' strong wind. Not sure it will ever be possible to determine that.

 

[Mark-1]

. The video of the yacht at anchor in New Zealand being knocked flat at anchor and immediatly righting itself speaks volumes

Was that yacht prevented from going beyond its AVS by the mast hitting something solid?

From what I've seen these big yachts don't have the AVS I had hitherto expected and don't just bob up from a knockdown like 'normal' yachts.

 

[PowerYachtBlog]

I'm confused by references to the tail/transom door being a source of flooding; in the attached sistership picture the 'door' opens onto to a set of steps and isn't an opening into the vessel's interior. The plans posted above by Bajansailor also seem to depict this arrangement, the toys' dock area being accessed via the side door.

View attachment 181902

These boats build of alumimium or steel are very custom in these details.
It could have been a different layout, were the side garage forms part of a beach room/club and into the aft bathing platform.

Also the layout might have been customized from original, in one of the refits.

I doubt they would have left the garage door open and both engine room open at night.
The Admiral 47m m/y Ethos which nearly sank in Greece at 31 July, was explained that once the garage is open, a mechanism locks the the engine room door and cannot be opened.
That feature actually saved the yacht from sinking. The engine room can be open once the side garage closed. Probably this fool proof safety feature is Class mandated but I am not sure of this.

 

[E39mad]

Until we have the data and the testimonies from the crew I am not sure we can compare this with the New Zealand knock down.

We don't know what the comparative wind speeds were and how long the gust held for. For instance the NZ boat pops straight back up but is that because the gust has blown through and is "momentary" whereas IF the severe gust (possibly tornado/waterspout) is for a pronounced period, say 20 or 30 seconds then it would pinned down allowing water to get in especially through the sliding doors!

 

[14K478]

Costantino is going to regret his comments, but for now, pending the MAIB preliminary report, he is the source for the 73 degrees angle of vanishing stability.

Is this for the arrival condition or the departure condition? He may have picked the departure condition to get a better number.

Both numbers are shockingly low.

 

[Steve_N]

These boats build of alumimium or steel are very custom in these details.
It could have been a different layout, were the side garage forms part of a beach room/club and into the aft bathing platform.

Also the layout might have been customized from original, in one of the refits.

She was certainly built with the stern steps arrangement as this photo of her prior to being renamed shows. But yes, as you say, it is possible that this could have been changed at a subsequent refit.

 

[Mark-1]

Costantino is going to regret his comments, but for now, pending the MAIB preliminary report, he is the source for the 73 degrees angle of vanishing stability.

Is this for the arrival condition or the departure condition? He may have picked the departure condition to get a better number.

Both numbers are shockingly low.

Thanks. I hadn't realised that was the source.

All the interest in conjecture has disappeared now I realise just how much we don't know and how many ways there were for this to happen.

 

[Portofino]

Those glass rear doors ! I suspected those from the offset .Report will see after investigation if they failed .


Mother + baby was up there so I suspect they weren’t “ dogged “ if that’s the correct expression shut .


They are going to raise it and the Italians are starting a man’s slaughter case this AM .

 

[obmij]

So now it is officially a manslaughter investigation. There is certainly a hunger to apportion blame.

 

[Seven Spades]

My feeling is that the crew are not culpable in any way and that this is the result of poor design coupled with an event that was not foreseen by the designers. I thoroughly detest the blame culture that exists today with the press wanting to “stick it” on someone.

 

[Mister E]

One thing in my mind non of the over vessels experienced thi plus there has been no reported damage on land.
Why so localised?

 

[14K478]

On the AVS, another document is in the public domain - the Bayesian had an ORC certificate and here it is - I didn’t find it, i’ve lifted this from A.N.Other sailing website:

A very different number, but I assume that the swing keel / ballasted centreboard will be locked down for racing as the “centreboard” box shows “NA”.

 

[KevinV]

So now it is officially a manslaughter investigation. There is certainly a hunger to apportion blame.

I wouldn't read anything into that - six people are dead, the man in charge of their safety is alive, simple.

 

[Mark-1]

One thing in my mind non of the over vessels experienced thi plus there has been no reported damage on land.
Why so localised?

If it was a waterspout then that's exactly what you'd expect.

If it wasn't, then yeah, that's relevant.

 

[RivalRedwing]

at least they have found the 6th person... some closure for the families anyway

 

[SaltIre]

My feeling is that the crew are not culpable in any way and that this is the result of poor design coupled with an event that was not foreseen by the designers. I thoroughly detest the blame culture that exists today with the press wanting to “stick it” on someone.

So why have you "stuck it" on the designer(s)? Is it not better to keep your mouth shut?