"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[Mark-1]

On the AVS, another document is in the public domain - the Bayesian had an ORC certificate and here it is - I didn’t find it, i’ve lifted this from A.N.Other sailing website:

A very different number, but I assume that the swing keel / ballasted centreboard will be locked down for racing as the “centreboard” box shows “NA”.

View attachment 181908

So with keel/board down AVS is 115.5. That sounds way more plausible than 73 and far more in line with what I'd expect.

How the hell do you manage a spinnaker on that scale? It must literally weight a ton if the mainsail weighs a couple of tons.

 

[Wandering Star]

at least they have found the 6th person... some closure for the families anyway

Yes, I was beginning to doubt they would so really, really pleased! As you say, it’ll help to bring closure to the relatives and friends of the guests who died. RIP all of them.

 

[Baggywrinkle]

Both waterspouts and microbursts have a signature visible on radar and both can be devastating when they contact the ground ... also very localised in the damage they cause

Microburst Damage

Wind speeds in microbursts can reach up to 100 mph, or even higher, which is equivalent to an EF-1 tornado! Winds this high can cause major damage to homes and other structures and level hundreds of trees. It is very important that you take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings just as seriously as Tornado Warnings!

The image to the right shows just how much damage can be caused by microburst winds. As you can see, this manufactured home was completely destroyed.​

What is a Microburst?



Tornadoes & Waterspouts On Doppler Weather Radar | LakeErieWX Marine Weather Blog

I would imagine if a waterspout or a mircoburst was present then a weather radar facility in Palermo has it recorded and they will probably come out in the course of the investigation - especially as the Airport in Cinisi has a flight approach just north of where the yacht was anchored.

Here is the historic data from Palermo on Monday ... something definitely happened in the early hours of the morning .... the temperature dropped, the wind veered from SW to N and the wind speed surged .... obviously this was on land at the weather station in Cinisi, Palermo, near the Airport, but what was happening at sea round the corner could have been a lot stronger and also localised. The weather up until 3:50am was pretty benign.



Explore the data for Monday here .... Cinisi, Italy Weather History | Weather Underground

 

[RunAgroundHard]

Claims made from Italian press agency, staid she sank bow first then rolled over to starboard. Also, the divers have performed a remarkable and proficient service in recovering the bodies, and should be recognized for their professionalism and dedication, in my opinion.

Mike Lynch yacht: possibility of manslaughter charges as final body recovered

Adnkronos also reported that investigators believed that the ship sank bow first, and then slowly capsized on to its right side.

 

[Douglas]

This is an appalling tragedy and wit and irony don't really belong here - but I use them to make a point.

Comments on behalf of Perini Navi that their yachts are 'unsinkable' don't really impress, not least as one of them, er, sank. History hasn't been kind to 'unsinkable' vessels, there was that other one, name began with T as I recall. And seven letters.

 

[Gurrig]

Just appeared in Guardian ‘I’ve never seen a vessel this size go down so quickly’: why did the Bayesian sink in 60 seconds?

 

[B27]

I suspect the hull may have failed.
Iwas thinking the dynamic loads on the rig and keel could be immense, if the wind was shaking the rig while holding the boat knocked down.
But if the vessel had little stability at that point, maybe not so.
But a bow-down sinking would be compatible with hull failure in the mast/keel/chains area.

 

[Binnacle]

I suspect the hull may have failed.
Iwas thinking the dynamic loads on the rig and keel could be immense, if the wind was shaking the rig while holding the boat knocked down.
But if the vessel had little stability at that point, maybe not so.
But a bow-down sinking would be compatible with hull failure in the mast/keel/chains area.

None of the reports have mentioned that the hull has "failed". You are guessing.

How could the wind shake the rig if the boat is knocked down ?

Do you understand the difference between static and dynamic loading ?

 

[Baggywrinkle]

Interestingly, this is on the web site from the Sir Robert Baden Powel which was the first responder to the tragedy.

Liebe Freunde der Sir Robert,​

durch kurzfristige Absagen sind zwei Kabinen aktuell verfügbar:
1.- 9. September 2024 Korsika, Westküste Insel der Schönheit Tauch- & Segeltörn mit Holger Pollmann An-/Abreise Olbia, Sardinien​

Willkommen an Bord der Sir Robert Baden Powell!

,,, which basically says that two cabins are available from 1st-9th September due to sudden cancellations .... I wonder why?

Not mentioned on the English version of the web site.

 

[14K478]

Like very many yachts, the Bayesian was a bit fatter aft than forward, and if knocked down would naturally adopt a slight bows-down attitude. If you don’t fancy trying it yourself in your own boat, look at a few pictures of racing boats in the middle of spinnaker wipe outs.

That may have been enough to put the starboard wheelhouse to deck weathertight door under, and if it were open, as it might very well have been…

 

[RunAgroundHard]

None of the reports have mentioned that the hull has "failed". You are guessing.

How could the wind shake the rig if the boat is knocked down ?

Do you understand the difference between static and dynamic loading ?

No shit Sherlock! I think it is certain that everyone on here is guessing.

 

[steveeasy]

Does not matter how small or big a sailboat is. The same principles apply to stability and safety.
Think we should be thinking of the families who have lost loved ones and the poor young girl.

Steveeasy

 

[Frogmogman]

How the hell do you manage a spinnaker on that scale? It must literally weight a ton if the mainsail weighs a couple of tons.

I would guess with a top-down furler. I have one for the asymmetric spinnaker on my boat; it makes deploying and recovering the kite a total doddle.

 

[Biggles Wader]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world...kCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

A bit of a timeline emerging.

 

[steveeasy]

My feeling is that the crew are not culpable in any way and that this is the result of poor design coupled with an event that was not foreseen by the designers. I thoroughly detest the blame culture that exists today with the press wanting to “stick it” on someone.

So why have you "stuck it" on the designer(s)? Is it not better to keep your mouth shut?

I agree. We all have our own thoughts. I tend to disagree with your views. I’m not going to air mine other than saying what I’ve posted earlier.
The same principles apply to small and large sailboats regarding safety and stability.

We should not apportion blame to anyone now and wait for the findings of any investigations.

From the latest video I note the reference to the keel bulb that could have been in the region of 200 tonnes. Sounds huge but proportionally the same size as my boats and that of many others. It’s there for a reason I’m sure.
Steveeasy

 

[14K478]

I agree. We all have our own thoughts. I tend to disagree with your views. I’m not going to air mine other than saying what I’ve posted earlier.
The same principles apply to small and large sailboats regarding safety and stability.

We should not apportion blame to anyone now and wait for the findings of any investigations.

From the latest video I note the reference to the keel bulb that could have been in the region of 200 tonnes. Sounds huge but proportionally the same size as my boats and that of many others. It’s there for a reason I’m sure.
Steveeasy

This is the only picture that I have seen which shows the underwater profile.

Think centreboard Sonata!

The ballasted centreboard retracts into and houses in the external keel I’ve seen a figure of ninety tons quoted.

 

[Steve_N]

The ballasted centreboard retracts into and houses in the external keel I’ve seen a figure of ninety tons quoted.

Already posted earlier but this yard state the weight of the retractable centreboard of 'a' Perini 56M as 55T.

Works on iconic 56m Perini Navi sailing yacht close to completion at Amsterdam Yacht Service | Amsterdam Yacht Service

 

[14K478]

For anyone who may be wondering, here’s a snap of the yacht anchored near to the “Bayesian” and whose Master rescued the survivors from their raft.

She was, I am told, originally an East German harbour tug.

 

[14K478]

Already posted earlier but this yard state the weight of the retractable centreboard of 'a' Perini 56M as 55T.

Works on iconic 56m Perini Navi sailing yacht close to completion at Amsterdam Yacht Service | Amsterdam Yacht Service

Thanks!

I have read somewhere that Perini “specially considered” the righting moment needed for the unique sloop rig and altered the ballast arrangements, so we might both be right!

Edited to add:

Found it!

Perini Navi launches 56 metre cutter Salute

 

[Roberto]

Already posted earlier but this yard state the weight of the retractable centreboard of 'a' Perini 56M as 55T.

Works on iconic 56m Perini Navi sailing yacht close to completion at Amsterdam Yacht Service | Amsterdam Yacht Service

Quick and rough calculation, say 50t swinging keel and 500t displacement, VCG of lowered keel say 7m below WL (?), VCG of raised keel say 4m below WL (?), difference is 3m x 50t = 150t.m, 150/500 = about 35cm upward movement of boat VCG. Hardly noticeable in a boat that size, imho.