"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[obmij]

Does anyone know how much pressure (in terms of wind strength) would be needed to knock a vessel of that displacement onto her spreaders and keep her there for a sustained period?

There were no other typical triggers to capsize such as large breaking waves, vertical / confused heavy swells etc and by any reasonable measure, the sea was flat. She is also designed to stand up to 30000 sq ft of canvas and of course was not carrying any.

Given the above, the wind strength must have been phenomenal..and then some.

 

[14K478]

^ Yes, and when we consider that the “Sir Robert Baden-Powell” was steaming to her anchors and still dragged, we get another measure of how strong that squall must have been.

 

[madabouttheboat]

'Black box' lays bare last 16 minutes aboard doomed sinking superyacht

A bit of a timeline emerging.

I'm guessing the discrepancy between the yacht sinking at 4am and the eye witnesses saying 5am is just down to time difference? Does the AIS work on GMT, BST or Local time?

 

[Biggles Wader]

I'm guessing the discrepancy between the yacht sinking at 4am and the eye witnesses saying 5am is just down to time difference? Does the AIS work on GMT, BST or Local time?

I assume so but there is much more in that link-----The vessel started bucking around 15 minutes before she sank and dragged anchor at much the same time. The crew must have been up dealing with the developing emergency, possibly opening several hatches as they turned to and came on deck, while the passengers might have woken but stayed below out of the way. It's becoming clearer why the crew mainly survived and those below didnt.

 

[dunedin]

….….

From the latest video I note the reference to the keel bulb that could have been in the region of 200 tonnes. Sounds huge but proportionally the same size as my boats and that of many others. It’s there for a reason I’m sure.
Steveeasy

That suggestion of a keel bulb of 200 tons seems strikes me as very unlikely - and reduces the credibility of the “designer” who posted the comments. A bulb weighing over 40% of the boats displacement would be extremely high, outside of a very racy day boat.

 

[14K478]

I assume so but there is much more in that link-----The vessel started bucking around 15 minutes before she sank and dragged anchor at much the same time. The crew must have been up dealing with the developing emergency, possibly opening several hatches as they turned to and came on deck, while the passengers might have woken but stayed below out of the way. It's becoming clearer why the crew mainly survived and those below didnt.

Very likely.

To speculate - did someone leave the starboard wheelhouse to deck weather tight door latched open? Guessing that the injured skipper may have been in the wheelhouse and needing to communicate with the crew…

 

[Time Out]

'Black box' lays bare last 16 minutes aboard doomed sinking superyacht

A bit of a timeline emerging.

AIS is not a black box …

 

[steveeasy]

That suggestion of a keel bulb of 200 tons seems strikes me as very unlikely - and reduces the credibility of the “designer” who posted the comments. A bulb weighing over 40% of the boats displacement would be extremely high, outside of a very racy day boat.

I agree. However the lead keel in my boat is 50% of the boats displacement weight.

Steveeasy

 

[billskip]

suggestion of a keel bulb of 200 tons seems strikes me as very unlikely -

I think that would be in the size range of 20/25 cubic meters....it wouldn't fit up the box slot for the pivot keel.

 

[Mark-1]

That suggestion of a keel bulb of 200 tons seems strikes me as very unlikely - and reduces the credibility of the “designer” who posted the comments. A bulb weighing over 40% of the boats displacement would be extremely high, outside of a very racy day boboat.

It's completely untrue. There is no bulb.

 

[chriss999]

^ Yes, and when we consider that the “Sir Robert Baden-Powell” was steaming to her anchors and still dragged, we get another measure of how strong that squall must have been.

And other forces than wind may well have been at work. If the boat was turning whilst it heeled the tall mast may have pulled it down. Or if drifting broadside on to the wind it could have tripped over the keel. Or if the anchor dragged then caught, that’s another possible force.
I’ve no knowledge of what happened. I imagine that once she was out of control, there may have been a lot going on.

 

[lusitano]

^ Yes, and when we consider that the “Sir Robert Baden-Powell” was steaming to her anchors and still dragged, we get another measure of how strong that squall must have been.

Would be interesting to know how much chain Bayesian had out. Hell of a lot I suppose, 200- 250mts » ?

 

[Capt Popeye]

Well I read an account of Her experiences by the Mother who saver her Baby , she as reported stated that She Mother and Baby were on Deck when disaster struck , so they were both thrown into the Sea together , therfore did not have to escape from the Cabins at all , luckily a inflataing Life Raft became in reach , so they clambered on board it .

 

[Capt Popeye]

Well me never having Sailed a Boat in the Mediteranian , ever , I have had experience of being aboad Cruise Ships , in the Mediteranian ; Well the first Cruise Ship was quite enough for me (us) of the Meditaranian ; WE were sent ashore on first morning for light Breakfasts and small lunches , with instructions to be back on Board by Noon ; WE were instructed that there were going to be Embarkation Ques with Tenders to transport us back aboard , we MUST NOT miss them : well a locat STORM occured and the first Tender very nearly dropped the first person into the Sea, the Captain declared that no further Tenders could be deployed and the Ship was on its way to a safer Port , so the Ship was preparing to sail without us for a few miles and arrange its short berthing there ; We eventually got back on board some 6 hours later on , tired , hungary , pissed off : well that Mediteraian can be a real BGR

 

[Mark-1]

[Deleted quoted content removed]

Pretty sure that's not the case.

 

[obmij]

[Deleted quoted content removed]

That is a very strong statement. Do you have any evidence that there was ample warning of any storm?

My understanding is that a 'yellow weather warning' was issued - this would indicate a fairly moderate impact and one most likely to affect smaller vessels. The inshore fishing fleet returned to port - which makes sense given that they are generally potters or small long-liners.

 

[Sticky Fingers]

I’m seriously concerned at the general level of guesswork and accusations being levelled here.

 

[SaltIre]

[Deleted quoted content removed]

 

[Sticky Fingers]

Quite.

 

[E39mad]

Very likely.

To speculate - did someone leave the starboard wheelhouse to deck weather tight door latched open? Guessing that the injured skipper may have been in the wheelhouse and needing to communicate with the crew…

On a boat that size the crew usually have some sort of coms with the skipper - you can't hear them 100 feet away yet alone in a storm without coms.