"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[Mark-1]

Even, you'd expect it to pass over the boat in a few seconds, after which the boat should right, unless it's taken on a great deal of water almost instantly and lost all stability?

Yup, it was knocked down for a short period of time and took on a great deal of water and sank. The only thing that's unclear is how the water entered. Breakage or one or more openings being open.

EDIT: Although interestingly, we haven't heard waterspouts mentioned recently. Has that bit of the account quietly changed?

This was a ship, not a boat, and ships are not generally designed to be blown over and recover.

I'm pretty sure ocean going sailing ships are designed to be blown flat and recover.

 

[Steve_N]

On the keel discussion, Googling around PN 56M sister ships (of which there are a surprising number), brokerage listings, refit details etc. the keel is described as a 'ballasted centreboard'. Control is by a '100 Ton hydraulic cylinder SAF 2205 with ceramic coating and dedicated powerpack' . The only reference to keel weight I could find was '55 tons of lead and aluminium' (although that referred to it as a daggerboard so may be a different keel).

FWIW (not a lot..).

 

[davez5]

An interview to he CEO/founder of The Italian Sea group, owner of Perini assets.

Naufragio Bayesian, Giovanni Costantino di Perini navi: «Una nave inaffondabile ma dall’equipaggio catena infinita di errori»
His reconstruction: the boat anchor drags, the boat drifts, sets abeam to the wind and begins taking on water, possibly from the stern (he mentions a watertight bulkhead beyond the opening on the transom, maybe left open?). This goes on for a few minutes.
Among the various hypothesis, he reckons water ingress caused a power outage: the b/w cctv footage from the nearby villa shows the mast completely lit, and at a certain moment all the spreader lights go off and only the masthead anchor light remains (he says that is powered by a battery). Without power, most equipment (including safety) would stop to function. He says there are doors which, if left open, would allow water ingress at 30° heeling. Perhaps not unexpectedly, he puts most of the responsibility on the crew.

If the builder has a detailed scenario within a few days of the event and long before any professional investigation, the question arises, why didn't you build your boat to mitigate this well-understood scenario?

 

[14K478]

It seems that Giovanni Constantino of Sea Italia favours the Elon Musk approach to running a business. He knows that the crew cannot reply as they are bound by their NDAs.

 

[B27]

...



I'm pretty sure ocean going sailing ships are designed to be blown flat and recover.

Can you back that up though?
Some of the sail training ships are essentially 'freighters in drag' and AIUI, freighters are unlikely to have >90 degrees AVS.
They do tend to have watertight compartments though, so tend to float upside down.

Historically, there have been a number of similar sized vessels sunk by squalls etc.
Pride of Baltimore springs to mind.

I'm curious to know what the design parameters are , and how much wind would it take to flatten the vessel.

 

[Martin_J]

Among the various hypothesis, he reckons water ingress caused a power outage: the b/w cctv footage from the nearby villa shows the mast completely lit, and at a certain moment all the spreader lights go off and only the masthead anchor light remains (he says that is powered by a battery). Without power, most equipment (including safety) would stop to function.

I had noticed that all the spreader lights went off suddenly, leaving just the masthead light lit... but I thought the mast looked upright as that happened.

I had a few nightmares sleeping onboard after the Titan submersible imploded... Let's hope this is put down to extraordinarily/freak weather.. something we can't do much about.

 

[Mark-1]

Can you back that up though?
Some of the sail training ships are essentially 'freighters in drag' and AIUI, freighters are unlikely to have >90 degrees AVS.
They do tend to have watertight compartments though, so tend to float upside down.

Historically, there have been a number of similar sized vessels sunk by squalls etc.
Pride of Baltimore springs to mind.

I'm curious to know what the design parameters are , and how much wind would it take to flatten the vessel.

I can't back it up but Sailing Vessels can get knocked down in normal use regardless of size so I reason they must be able to typically survive it. Clearly there will be a point of no return.

EDIT: I seem to be totally wrong. ChatGPT reckons the AVS of a tea clipper was 50-60 degrees. Freaky, I'd have thought they'd see that 20 times in every voyage!

Here's chatgpt's list. I haven't verified it and can't so big pinch of salt required:

1. HMS Victory (1765)​

• Type: First-rate ship of the line, flagship of Admiral Nelson.
• AVS: Approximately 40 to 50 degrees.
• Notes: This historic ship was designed for battle with a focus on stability in combat conditions.

2. Cutty Sark (1869)​

• Type: Clipper ship known for its speed.
• AVS: Around 50 to 60 degrees.
• Notes: Designed for speed and efficiency, with a narrow beam and a low center of gravity that contributed to a relatively high AVS for its era.

3. USS Constitution (1797)​

• Type: Frigate, also known as "Old Ironsides."
• AVS: Approximately 40 to 50 degrees.
• Notes: Built to be robust and stable for naval engagements.

4. HMS Bounty (1960 replica)​

• Type: Replica of the 18th-century Bounty.
• AVS: Around 40 degrees.
• Notes: The replica was built with modern materials and standards, but it is modeled after the design of the original vessel.

 

[Mark-1]

I had noticed that all the spreader lights went off suddenly, leaving just the masthead light lit... but I thought the mast looked upright as that happened.

So if water ingress killed the power that means it started to sink on a more or less even keel, that would totally explain why the entire crew got out and half the passengers. It would also explain how the wife seemingly just walked out.

Maybe the idea of the Waterspout needs to be revisited. Did it half fill with water on an even keel and then tip on its side? That would be a very different sort of tragedy.

I'm skeptical about all of that, I wonder if there's simply another reason the spreader lights went off.

EDIT: Apparently the generator can flick off at relatively low levels of heel. So possible that the generator went off, but not due to flooding.

 

[John_Silver]

That 30° downflooding angle, were an access door left open ( referred to by the CEO of Perini Navi and reported in @Roberto ’s post, #360) seems like an important consideration here. 30° would be a low angle of heel, to compromise the vessel, IF that door were to be open…..

 

[Portofino]

If the builder has a detailed scenario within a few days of the event and long before any professional investigation, the question arises, why didn't you build your boat to mitigate this well-understood scenario?

He did add the proviso that the inner water tight door to the engine room / machinery spaces should have been closed .

He pointed out if only the “ tail door “ was open it wasn’t enough, big enough space if flooded to prevent the boat upright ing in a knockdown .
He said the divers told him the tail door was open .But at the time of this interview he didn’t know if the inner door was open .He assumed the geny machinery flooded causing a power out from the shore vid that shows a sudden switching off of the mast lights except the battery powered mast head .

——————/—————
On another matter there will be bloods and toxicology tests for alcohol + “substance “ on the crew .

Probably the passengers ?

The results of which on the crew will be added into potential prosecution decisions.

 

[Mark L]

I'm skeptical about all of that, I wonder if there's simply another reason the spreader lights went off.

Could just as easily be configuring the lights for getting underway given she was dragging prior to the sinking. That could also explain the crew (minus the chef) being on deck. Similarly passenger survival is probably no more complicated than whether you were in an uphill or downhill cabin. Approximately half of the passengers were killed and in most cases those that died were couples. The one exception was a mother and baby (who it is suggested may have been out of her cabin).

 

[Baggywrinkle]

Wouldn't be the first time doors on a superyacht were left open ....

 

[Portofino]

So if water ingress killed the power that means it started to sink on a more or less even keel, that would totally explain why the entire crew got out and half the passengers. It would also explain how the wife seemingly just walked out.

Maybe the idea of the Waterspout needs to be revisited. Did it half fill with water on an even keel and then tip on its side? That would be a very different sort of tragedy.

I'm skeptical about all of that, I wonder if there's simply another reason the spreader lights went off.

The survivors do say it tipped up and they were thrown overboard .

There’s obviously been a huge breach somewhere and the factory guys implying it was this tail section space to engine room bulkhead .Also he says the fwd tender garage saying as it is now on the seabed the pressure might have closed an open flap as it went down = implying it was open during the incident and this was another breach ? If I understood Google translation of the interview script ? Investigation will reveal if it was latched ?

I know some one ^ said the yard should be silent , families in tragedy , crew under none disclosure agreements etc etc , so can’t fight back .
But stand in his shoes for a moment ….paparazzi swarming all over the yard and his home , the media speculation eg mast snapped and it sank - we know better but Joe public and seemingly most journos know nothing about boats .
Other boat near survived .

As we have deduced the boats been through testing , classifications, etc etc and one apparently has survived a knock down …the guy even referred to the NZ example in his statement.
So really with trigger happy Italian media , equally trigger happy public prosecutors he stuck between a rock and hard place .
You can’t blame the yard for coming out all guns blazing .

Silence would only inflame the situation and suggest guilt .

Also this volcano , meteorite , tornado , black swan thing = bad luck nothing could have prevent the tragedy argument banded about ^ doesn’t stack up .

The yard will say it’s unsinkable if used correctly, the guy says should have closed everything, engines on , anchor up or indeed he says cut free and the boat motored into the wind and waves .As it was at anchor he says it ended up beam on and with doors open ……he even goes on the say the met was predictable, pointing out the local fishing fleet was port bound that evening .They knew a storm was coming .

I mean look at the other boat that survived they did all this .

He dismissed the “ black swan “ saying his boats have been through a lot worse citing Caribbean hurricanes of force 5 magnitude and never sunk and has evidence to back that up .

 

[Frogmogman]

It seems that Giovanni Constantino of Sea Italia favours the Elon Musk approach to running a business. He knows that the crew cannot reply as they are bound by their NDAs.

TBH I’d be more interested to hear what Ron Holland has to say about it than Giovanni Constantino, who as you say seems to be in full-on Elon Musk mode.

I expect Ron Holland will be keeping his own counsel, as he will no doubt be required to give evidence.

 

[14K478]

So if water ingress killed the power that means it started to sink on a more or less even keel, that would totally explain why the entire crew got out and half the passengers. It would also explain how the wife seemingly just walked out.

Maybe the idea of the Waterspout needs to be revisited. Did it half fill with water on an even keel and then tip on its side? That would be a very different sort of tragedy.

I'm skeptical about all of that, I wonder if there's simply another reason the spreader lights went off.

EDIT: Apparently the generator can flick off at relatively low levels of heel. So possible that the generator went off, but not due to flooding.

1. If there were water ingress whilst the boat was upright the free surface effect would reduce her stability.

2. If the spreader lights were powered by a generator but the masthead red were on battery then the spreader lights would go out once the generator(s) tripped out due to heel (pretty much any time after 30 degrees of heel and the low oil pressure alarm will trip) but the red would stay on (as it seems it does in the CCTV footage).

 

[14K478]

Unfortunately for Constantino, the “Sir Robert Baden-Powell” is afaik a converted tug originally built in East Germany in the 1950s. Her stability “ought” to be far worse than that of the “Bayesian”

 

[SaltIre]

Could just as easily be configuring the lights for getting underway given she was dragging prior to the sinking. That could also explain the crew (minus the chef) being on deck. Similarly passenger survival is probably no more complicated than whether you were in an uphill or downhill cabin. Approximately half of the passengers were killed and in most cases those that died were couples. The one exception was a mother and baby (who it is suggested may have been out of her cabin).

YBW's report says both parents survived. Do they not count as a "couple"?

Those onboard were assisted by other sailing vessels in the harbour, as well as emergency services, and 15 were rescued, including a one-year-old child and their parents.

Breaking news: One dead, six missing after sailing superyacht sinks off Sicily - Yachting World

 

[Mark L]

YBW's report says both parents survived. Do they not count as a "couple"?

Thanks for the correction. I had thought that her partner was one of the missing.

 

[Mark-1]

I've watched the video of the mast lights "going out" again. The lights go out just as the visibility drops to zero and the boat looks upright to me. The anchor light disappears shortly after.

I'm really not convinced that's evidence of swamping at an angle of over 30 degrees. I have a feeling the mast lights are just less bright than the anchor light and we lose them first when the viz closes in.

 

[Martin_J]

If you have just watched that video, someone on sailing anarchy has overlaid it with some lines... and conjecture..

Bottom of the page at the link below..
56m luxury sailing yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing