"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[Sea Change]

the boat did not fully capsize (it couldn't the mast hit the bottom and stopped it)

At the risk of being pedantic, I've always used 'capsize' to mean the same thing as 'laid on beam ends', and 'inverted' or 'turned turtle' to mean a boat that has gone upside down. I think this is how it's referred to when sailing in dingies anyway. Happy to be corrected if my usage of these terms turns out to have been wrong for several decades.

 

[billskip]

At the risk of being pedantic,

Basically...yes.

Edit..... you could of course clarify the meaning of the word by looking in a dictionary

 

[rogerthebodger]

There has been references to windows breaking and letting water in but it does depend on the exact structure of the windows.

On my boat I went for laminated and toughened glass that would break if hit but due to the lamination would stay intact and not fall out.

The divers also referred to not being able to see through the windows maybe due to the broken taughtened glass with the windows still intact

sliding patio door may be different due to needing of a reduced weight to allow easy opening

 

[pmagowan]

At the risk of being pedantic, I've always used 'capsize' to mean the same thing as 'laid on beam ends', and 'inverted' or 'turned turtle' to mean a boat that has gone upside down. I think this is how it's referred to when sailing in dingies anyway. Happy to be corrected if my usage of these terms turns out to have been wrong for several decades.

I think that is only true of dingy sailing. In most situations like what we are talking about here it means to be on side or further including 'turned turtle' or upside down. For large sailing craft since being greater than 90 degrees is not a stable position it would normally refer to being upside down IMO.

 

[flaming]

There has been references to windows breaking and letting water in but it does depend on the exact structure of the windows.

On my boat I went for laminated and toughened glass that would break if hit but due to the lamination would stay intact and not fall out.

The divers also referred to not being able to see through the windows maybe due to the broken taughtened glass with the windows still intact

sliding patio door may be different due to needing of a reduced weight to allow easy opening

I wouldn't read too much into the diver comments, probably because they are more likely to be trying to directly access the sleeping compartments - all of which would presumably have hull windows as why would you want to go on a superyacht and not have windows - and being generally lower in the boat it's more than possible that those windows are very different in size and construction than the ones higher up in the superstructure.

 

[KimB]

Cutting your feet on glass can occur in many many instances, not just from broken windows. e.g. a bedside lamp falling and then stepping on it, a water glass, a carafe, an ornament; multiplied by a run for safety.
Such a tragedy.

 

[Baggywrinkle]

You beat me to it .
The pivot pin wear leading to a rattling plate within the body is a good spot .As to why they tend to retract them at anchor .
We had a Gibsea 7.6 in the 80 s with a lifting keel and indeed it was a swinging plate which rattled when down @ anchor .

That video is actually in post #13 ... ... we're going round in circles.

 

[pmagowan]

Imagine your, or 99% of yachts, being knocked over like this. It would be chaos. Now imagine it in a superyacht with all the 'extras' they have on board. There would be broken glass everywhere, crockery, vases, furniture, books, ornaments, etc. Boats, for the most part, are not designed to be knocked over. They are designed to sail within reasonable limits of heel. They may be designed to survive a normal knockover but not in comfort and not without complete chaos. This is not a design flaw and having everything stuck down in a situation like this is not only not practical but would destroy the enjoyment of the boat in normal conditions. Nothing is designed to survive waterspouts, volcano's and meteorites because a)they don't happen and b) if they could be designed to this level they would fail at their primary objective. Have a look at the many Youtube videos of cruise ships in storms with failure of engine and stabilizers.

 

[Zing]

Here’s another explanation: The wind hit so fast the momentum of the mass of the boat allowed her to roll so far as to immerse the mast. A 76m mast, now full of water with enough mass x moment arm to counter the keel ballast holds her pinned down allowing water to flood into an opening, either a broken saloon window or a companionway that was not designed or expected to ever get to this angle of downflooding and after a short time the situation is irrecoverable.

 

[Portofino]

The centreplate in a boat that size is so heavy it is almost impossible to rattle. They don't rattle in Southerly's where the keels are ballasted but weigh nothing like the board/keel in a 56m yacht.

Everything is scaled up .Principal is the same , the ex engineer said so - they can rattle sometimes . The pivot pin wears eventually.Obviously new and for the first few yrs it doesn’t rattle .
The plate may be large , but so is the hull and corresponding forces as it moves at anchor on the drooped plate / keel .

As others have said all testing for class etc relies on stuff like the plate down , bulkhead doors closed , hatches secure , doors shut etc etc .

A rattling centre plate when down @ anchor , with folks sleeping sounds a plausible reason why it was retracted .

Wether it should have been down is for the investigators to comment on the report(s) .
Bearing in mind it’s wasn’t a shallow anchorage.

The idea ( not wanting to teach grandma’s on sailing how to suck eggs ) of a lifting plate is you can anchor in shallow water , enter a wider range of ports as 9 m when down is limiting in the Med , reduces drag when motoring and running down wind


The captains said it all very succinctly “ we didn’t see it coming “

Had he ( they ) seen it coming then the boat could have been better prepped and survive like the NZ example? ……we can speculate for ever on what ifs like alert the passengers get them on deck in LV s ……as well as start the engines - power up the hydraulics if necessary ? AND drop the keel , batten the thing down and get LRafts ready etc etc .
Like the large yacht nearest them which came to the rescue

He will be judged on what any reasonable Capt would have done , part of which is already mentioned accessing the likely hood of the Balearics storm moving SE to his location .

Further more unlike commercial environments on SYs there can be a delicate relationship between the skipper and owner in terms of the ownner(s) don’t like being told what to do , disturbed in sleep etc .Owners with forceful personalities .
Not saying this is the case here Btw just giving the heads up of why the crew were up and passengers ( except the mum + baby ) were left asleep , and keel up before bed time .

It will all come out in the report(s)

 

[oldharry]

You beat me to it .
The pivot pin wear leading to a rattling plate within the body is a good spot .As to why they tend to retract them at anchor .
We had a Gibsea 7.6 in the 80 s with a lifting keel and indeed it was a swinging plate which rattled when down @ anchor .

I've no idea of the weight of the centreboard on a boat that size, but the engineering must go way beyond a 'pivot pin'. That centreboard must weigh many tons, and any movement other than designed would need to be eliminated, if only to avoid premature wear and damage. I would expect it to be a fairly sophisticated mechanism of bearings and hydraulic rams?

As to things being left open: they were at anchor, so not closed down for seagoing. The tender station for example which would be firmly shut under way, had reportedly been opened for guests to go ashore that evening. I have done anchor watch on a vessel half that size. Seagoing conditions were relaxed by the skipper on the grounds they were not underway. And yes, we too had a violent storm which involved us in scurrying round shutting things to stop the rain soaking the accommodation!

So it boils down to the legal definition of what constitutes being 'at sea'. In a known 'safe' sheltered anchorage even with bad weather forecast, I would expect most skippers to relax the seagoing drill - specially with paying guests aboard!

It will be interesting to see what MAIB make of it, and whether regs will be revised for vessels at anchor outside a port. The odds against such an accident as this ever happening must be astronomical.

 

[dunedin]

It's been reported that there was loads of loose furniture and that yes, it did all slide around.

Having said that I'm questioning that a little. I wonder if there are actually rules about the weight of loose stuff and actually there was very little, but still enough to be reported as a hindrance.

Generally there is lots of light stuff which is loose, but stowed for sea - extra chairs etc. I would be surprised if the heavy stuff didn’t have permanent securings. It wasn’t a motor boat, so designed to heel a bit (albeit clearly went beyond design limits)

 

[RunAgroundHard]

…. Boats, for the most part, are not designed to be knocked over. They are designed to sail within reasonable limits of heel. They may be designed to survive a normal …

That is not correct. They are designed to survive a knockdown and survive damage. The conditions for that will be stipulated in the stability book and the marine operations manual. The conditions that determine the survive-ability will be stated for various scenarios, equipment status, damage extent, loading. Many ships at anchor e.g. if unloading, implement change controls because the stability barriers are removed e.g. cargo hatches and access doors opened. In this case, if the garage was left open, or the side garage was ajar, if the keel was raised, then the survivabilty may have been reduced. 24 hour manning is required and will have been checked by class. This allows variables to be addressed by crews when compromises happen, e.g. weather watch, doors only open for a short period. The environmental conditions could have been so sudden and huge, that bad luck just arrived. However, fully buttoned up, with keel down, perhaps a different outcome. However the boat is designed to take a battering from very heavy weather.

These super yachts are not designed to the same codes as small commercial vessels or leisure vessels, they fall under significantly different rules.

 

[flaming]

According to the Mail online (yes, I know...) the builders have already made up their mind where the blame lies.

Earlier a spokesman for the company told MailOnline 'procedures were not followed' on the luxury vessel and the sinking was down to 'portholes being left open despite bad weather being forecast hours earlier'.

A spokesperson said: 'The Bayesian was built to a very high standards and it would not have sunk if proper procedures had been followed by the crew.

'A storm had been forecast earlier, no fishing boats went out and yet the portholes were not shut, the yacht sank because it was engulfed by a massive amount of water through open portholes.'

The spokesperson added: 'The Bayesian would have remained afloat in any weather, even if it was being swung from left to right in gale force winds but it could never have remained in the water with open port holes.


'The design made the yacht extremely sturdy, but it couldn't stay up because there had been a huge intake of water though open portholes.

'The yacht was built to withstand whatever the conditions were. The mast has nothing to do with what happened, it was built that way when it was launched and it had a refit in 2020 in Spain, the yacht sank because procedures in bad weather were not followed.'

Why did the Bayesian capsize? Unearthed clip shows what SHOULD happen

 

[Capt Popeye]

I recall reading that the Mother and Baby were sleeping On Deck so thats why they were swept into the sea, to be eventually rescued and used a Life Raft ; My thinks are that She would state/confirm if Deck Windows or Doors were open ? Also what were the Activities aboard the Craft prior to the Capsize ?

Whatever the Designers , Builders , Officials say /state I feel that with a Mast of that height its pushing luck to set sail like that and feel confident
CP

 

[Zing]

Everything is scaled up .Principal is the same , the ex engineer said so - they can rattle sometimes . The pivot pin wears eventually.Obviously new and for the first few yrs it doesn’t rattle .
The plate may be large , but so is the hull and corresponding forces as it moves at anchor on the drooped plate / keel .

As others have said all testing for class etc relies on stuff like the plate down , bulkhead doors closed , hatches secure , doors shut etc etc .

A rattling centre plate when down @ anchor , with folks sleeping sounds a plausible reason why it was retracted .

Wether it should have been down is for the investigators to comment on the report(s) .
Bearing in mind it’s wasn’t a shallow anchorage.

The idea ( not wanting to teach grandma’s on sailing how to suck eggs ) of a lifting plate is you can anchor in shallow water , enter a wider range of ports as 9 m when down is limiting in the Med , reduces drag when motoring and running down wind


The captains said it all very succinctly “ we didn’t see it coming “

Had he ( they ) seen it coming then the boat could have been better prepped and survive like the NZ example? ……we can speculate for ever on what ifs like alert the passengers get them on deck in LV s ……as well as start the engines - power up the hydraulics if necessary ? AND drop the keel , batten the thing down and get LRafts ready etc etc .
Like the large yacht nearest them which came to the rescue

He will be judged on what any reasonable Capt would have done , part of which is already mentioned accessing the likely hood of the Balearics storm moving SE to his location .

Further more unlike commercial environments on SYs there can be a delicate relationship between the skipper and owner in terms of the ownner(s) don’t like being told what to do , disturbed in sleep etc .Owners with forceful personalities .
Not saying this is the case here Btw just giving the heads up of why the crew were up and passengers ( except the mum + baby ) were left asleep , and keel up before bed time .

It will all come out in the report(s)

On the keel up or down:

Up thread a picture of the keel is shown of a similar boat. That’s a folding keel. This boat was described as having a retracting keel. It’s unthinkable and total incompetence, but not impossible obviously that a retracting keel would be up, because total incompetence of those we trust is quite common.

The difference is a folding keel affects stability very little, whereas a retracting keel affects it a lot. I can’t find a picture of the keel, so it could be folding, but badly described. If it is folding being up or down is not going to be a major factor.

 

[Fr J Hackett]

On the keel up or down:

Up thread a picture of the keel is shown of a similar boat. That’s a folding keel. This boat was described as having a retracting keel. It’s unthinkable and total incompetence, but not impossible obviously that a retracting keel would be up, because total incompetence of those we trust is quite common.

The difference is a folding keel affects stability very little, whereas a retracting keel affects it a lot. I can’t find a picture of the keel, so it could be folding, but badly described. If it is folding being up or down is not going to be a major factor.

WTF is a folding keel?

 

[Capt Popeye]

The mast was soooo tall. Maybe too tall?

How would he know? There will have been people escaping from all over, all sorts of openings could have been left open. Apparently some of the openings are automated, maybe they opened themselves in some way.

I find the broken windows theory very compelling, but against that we've been told the windows were intact and it seems unlikely that the regulations around construction would allow for windows that couldn't stand up to being submerged. It was an ocean going vessel, they'd expect waves to hit the windows mid ocean.

On that basis it seems more likely that there were openings open. Either because that was standard procedure at anchor or in the chaos.

Again, I'm sure a grand piano in free fall would break a window, but that doesn't explain how the wife's feet got cut.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Imagine your, or 99% of yachts, being knocked over like this. It would be chaos. Now imagine it in a superyacht with all the 'extras' they have on board. There would be broken glass everywhere, crockery, vases, furniture, books, ornaments, etc. Boats, for the most part, are not designed to be knocked over. They are designed to sail within reasonable limits of heel. They may be designed to survive a normal knockover but not in comfort and not without complete chaos. This is not a design flaw and having everything stuck down in a situation like this is not only not practical but would destroy the enjoyment of the boat in normal conditions. Nothing is designed to survive waterspouts, volcano's and meteorites because a)they don't happen and b) if they could be designed to this level they would fail at their primary objective. Have a look at the many Youtube videos of cruise ships in storms with failure of engine and stabilizers.

On one of our Retirement Cruise onboard a Ship , I attended one of the 'talks' provided by the Company ; To my supprise Iunderstood that these Large Cruise Ships are in constant communication with Head Office Weather ; Persons to make really sure that these Ships do not get subjected to Severe Weather whilst out on voyage; It was made quite plain that there are maximum weather conditions where the Cruise Ship MUST avoid at all costs ; Also there are many Videos showing the Seating , furniture , pianos etc being thrown about on a Cruise Ship thats experiencing very advese Weather conditions ; Passengers being hit by these objects

So my experince of Cruise Ships that they are all right if operationg within their Design and calculated limits , if out of that , they are dangerous to be aboard

 

[E39mad]

On the keel up or down:

Up thread a picture of the keel is shown of a similar boat. That’s a folding keel. This boat was described as having a retracting keel. It’s unthinkable and total incompetence, but not impossible obviously that a retracting keel would be up, because total incompetence of those we trust is quite common.

The difference is a folding keel affects stability very little, whereas a retracting keel affects it a lot. I can’t find a picture of the keel, so it could be folding, but badly described. If it is folding being up or down is not going to be a major factor.

The picture I put up was of "Salute" which was renamed Bayesian so shows the long ballasted keel box into which the centreplate retracts

 

[E39mad]

According to the Mail online (yes, I know...) the builders have already made up their mind where the blame lies.


Why did the Bayesian capsize? Unearthed clip shows what SHOULD happen

Wonder how they know that the "portholes" were open.