"Bayesian" s/y sinks in Palermo

[Zing]

WTF is a folding keel?

Otherwise known as an origami keel. Fold it on the dotted lines to make more compact.

 

[Fr J Hackett]

Otherwise known as an origami keel. Fold it on the dotted lines to make more compact.

So in your ignorance you posted some bullshite.

 

[Fr J Hackett]

Wonder how they know that the "portholes" were open.

There seem to be very few portholes in the hull, unless the dark blue colour is masking them.

 

[Portofino]

According to the Mail online (yes, I know...) the builders have already made up their mind where the blame lies.


Why did the Bayesian capsize? Unearthed clip shows what SHOULD happen

Divers report the portholes closed on the up side with the boat on its side on the sea bed though.
Also TBC with a night geny on the AC would be on below . I know there was a lot of posts further up with folks wearing ( quite understandably) small boat mentality hats .
No reason to open the hull port holes …..however if so , what the builders are saying then it quite damming on the crew not to knock everyone up and ensure they were secure in the 10 -15 mins before the high knockdown wind / spout hit the boat .
After all they were all on deck up and awake presumably doing other storm mitigating stuff ?

Edit - In news paper speak might mean “port holes “ interpretation as any hatch , rear patio door or even internal bulkhead door(s) .
Us boaty folk are literally interpreting this as a hull side glass .

Obviously the builder will put out a blame that isn’t on the actual boat design …..if used correctly.

Didn’t SWAN end up in a similar situation fighting for survival ( business wise) after a keel dropped off one of its new large yachts?

The poor builders senior staff will be looking very closely at there indemnity insurance ….more so as this owner was very tenacious , a decade long case winning huge a lawyer up jobbie with Hewlett-Packard .

The reports( s) I fear will not be complimentary to the skipper + crew .

 

[Zing]

So in your ignorance you posted some bullshite.

Humourless is your middle name?

 

[Fr J Hackett]

Humourless is your middle name?

Yup what's a folding keel then? Humour me.

 

[B27]

On the keel up or down:

Up thread a picture of the keel is shown of a similar boat. That’s a folding keel. This boat was described as having a retracting keel. It’s unthinkable and total incompetence, but not impossible obviously that a retracting keel would be up, because total incompetence of those we trust is quite common.

The difference is a folding keel affects stability very little, whereas a retracting keel affects it a lot. I can’t find a picture of the keel, so it could be folding, but badly described. If it is folding being up or down is not going to be a major factor.

I think the images I've seen suggest a centreboard which retracts into a stub keel below the hull body.
I've sailed small yachts with similar. The weight of the centreboard will obviously add stability when down, but when it's 'up', it's still below the CofG so providing some stability.
Unless you know what the ballast ratio is and what fraction of the ballast is in the moving centreboard, you can only guess or use prejudice to speculate on the effect of it being up or down.

It's possible for a boat to capsize more easily with the plate down, because the plate resists leeway.

In the limit, these people could have been killed if they'd been in a house or car or aircraft hit by a tornado.
The power of nature is arguably infinite.

 

[KimB]

I recall reading that the Mother and Baby were sleeping On Deck so thats why they were swept into the sea, to be eventually rescued and used a Life Raft ; My thinks are that She would state/confirm if Deck Windows or Doors were open ? Also what were the Activities aboard the Craft prior to the Capsize ?

Whatever the Designers , Builders , Officials say /state I feel that with a Mast of that height its pushing luck to set sail like that and feel confident
CP

I suspect that she might say something like " I don't know. I was holding onto my baby for dear life".
The captain could very well have issued precise, intelligent instructions, force majeure would have almost certainly taken over from then on.

 

[Zing]

Yup what's a folding keel then? Humour me.

I doubt that’s possible.

A folding keel or folding centreboard will retract an unbalasted keel like a folding penknife blade into a mini ballasted keel and is used in yachts such as Oyster, Perini Navi. A swing keel carries the ballast in its end as used a Pogo or Finot Conq design. A telescopic keel extends like um, a telescope. A retractable keel retracts straight up into the hull, up to the deck often. Cariboni and APM are the specialist makers of these last two types and are used in many superyachts. Better performance, but not safe to be used when up unlike the folding type.

 

[Mark-1]

Wonder how they know that the "portholes" were open.

I don't see how they can know but if they can stand up that claim then I think it's fair to say they are largely blameless.

However, I don't think that absence of blame for the builder means the crew were to blame. It was a freak occurance, they can't be expected to button up the boat to prepare for a knockdown while they're safe at anchor. I bet the local houses aren't Tornado proof. Some contingencies aren't worth preparing for.

 

[pmagowan]

That is not correct. They are designed to survive a knockdown and survive damage. The conditions for that will be stipulated in the stability book and the marine operations manual. The conditions that determine the survive-ability will be stated for various scenarios, equipment status, damage extent, loading. Many ships at anchor e.g. if unloading, implement change controls because the stability barriers are removed e.g. cargo hatches and access doors opened. In this case, if the garage was left open, or the side garage was ajar, if the keel was raised, then the survivabilty may have been reduced. 24 hour manning is required and will have been checked by class. This allows variables to be addressed by crews when compromises happen, e.g. weather watch, doors only open for a short period. The environmental conditions could have been so sudden and huge, that bad luck just arrived. However, fully buttoned up, with keel down, perhaps a different outcome. However the boat is designed to take a battering from very heavy weather.

These super yachts are not designed to the same codes as small commercial vessels or leisure vessels, they fall under significantly different rules.

Try reading my post again as you are responding to something I have not said or an incorrect interpretation of what I have said. I am not talking about structural survivability etc I am clearly talking about use. Take any boat, knock it over, tell me what it looks like inside!

 

[Portofino]

On the “port hole “ open thing on big boats they have sensors and indicators on the bridge show the status open / closed .We will find out in the reports more accurate info if this boat had such .

You know ( us small boaters on here ) bit like your bilge pump lights on the dash . Because they need to know if a port hole or orifice is opened when sailing , like you would like to know if one of bilge pumps turned on .

 

[14K478]

The professional yacht crew code of omertà will apply in addition to the non disclosure agreements that the crew have all signed and beyond that all concerned will be “lawyered up”, the builders, the managers (Camper & Nicholson) the crew via their union, the Classification Society (ABS). So we will have to wait for the MAIB Report.

But anyone who describes his company’s products as “unsinkable” when one of them is lying on the bottom of the sea deserves a special award of some sort.

 

[dunedin]

On the keel up or down:

Up thread a picture of the keel is shown of a similar boat. That’s a folding keel. This boat was described as having a retracting keel. It’s unthinkable and total incompetence, but not impossible obviously that a retracting keel would be up, because total incompetence of those we trust is quite common.

The difference is a folding keel affects stability very little, whereas a retracting keel affects it a lot. I can’t find a picture of the keel, so it could be folding, but badly described. If it is folding being up or down is not going to be a major factor.

You clearly are NOT a naval architect and making many rather dubious statements there.
Clearly there are differences between keels - and centreboards - which retract upwards into a trunk and ones which hinge on a pivot.
There are also differences in the amount of ballast in the moving part and in the hull (think Southerly for example). I have not seen any details of this aspect yet.
It is unthinkable that the boat would hoist sails with the keel up. But without seeing the design callculations and / or ship operating manuals it is a leap to claim “total incompetence” to have the keel up at anchor.
If the boat had been in harbour it would not be any less liable to being blown over.

 

[dunedin]

According to the Mail online (yes, I know...) the builders have already made up their mind where the blame lies.


Why did the Bayesian capsize? Unearthed clip shows what SHOULD happen

If these quotes are true I suspect many will choose not to deal with that shipyard ever again - to immediately and publicly blame the customer and their crew ahead of any proper investigation is quite incredibly bad practice.
Polite silence would have been the correct approach whilst the recovery of bodies is ongoing.

 

[obmij]

There is a huge amount of finger pointing going on in the media. I suppose it is natural to look for someone or something to blame when things go wrong but I really do feel for the crew, and their families, when they read about criminal liability and blame. The have undergone a very traumatic and possibly life changing event, and are now facing various opinionated talking heads speculating that if only they had done something differently then their passengers would be alive.

One of the most strident voices on the first day was an Italian meteorologist who stated that the crew should have had all passengers on deck and in lifejackets due to the 'yellow weather warning'. Imagine if that were to be formalised in procedure. It might be novel the first time as guests paying 200k a week were forced to sweat out the whisky at 4am and 28 degrees, wearing a SOLAS lifejacket and watching out for a potential thunderstorm 30km away. It wouldn't be so funny the next time, or the third or fourth time on a weeks charter. Likewise - sorry we can't pick you up from the beach - there's a yellow warning for lighting in Albania.

The reality is the vessel was at anchor and could not possibly have anticipated what was about to happen. Tender garage open..keel up..hatches open for routine maintenance..all perfectly reasonable actions. As others implied - try and mitigate against every possible event and there would be no such thing as yachting.

They will be working to a safety management system. Both the system itself and its implementation will have been audited both internally and externally on a periodic basis. Sometimes though, things happen and no-one is to blame.

 

[RunAgroundHard]

If these quotes are true I suspect many will choose not to deal with that shipyard ever again - to immediately and publicly blame the customer and their crew ahead of any proper investigation is quite incredibly bad practice.
Polite silence would have been the correct approach whilst the recovery of bodies is ongoing.

Blame gets apportioned rightly or wrongly rather quickly. It may have an impact on future sales, but at the end of the day if the price is right, not likely. It is a fact through class survey, that the boat met the design criteria when compared to standards independently established, otherwise it would not have received and maintained class notation.

If the crew have failed to manage the requirements to maintain what is called a performance standard, to allow a barrier to do its job e.g. keel position and water tight door positions, then the blame could be directed towards them.

My experience of significant incidents in the marine space of my discipline: event happens, accusations are made, lawyers apply the brakes, holding statements get issued, investigations start, claims are then tested in court.

It is also my experience, in many major incidents I have reviewed and taken part in that people controls are very weak and fail quite commonly, especially if procedural. The investigation may identify a weakness in design, and exonerate the crew. Probably a mix of failings, rather than one item.

I wouldn’t read much into the yard trying to blame the crew.

 

[B27]

I thought tornados and suchlike moved fairly quickly, but I read that they can travel as slowly as a few mph?
Even, you'd expect it to pass over the boat in a few seconds, after which the boat should right, unless it's taken on a great deal of water almost instantly and lost all stability?
But then a lot of motor vessels are not self righting beyond 60 or 70 degrees?

This was a ship, not a boat, and ships are not generally designed to be blown over and recover.
The mast was indeed very tall, but lots of sailing ships have had pretty tall masts, and much more windage aloft.
statistically, they sank from time to time.
If it's not designed to self-right, then any open portholes etc only change how long it takes to sink.

It kind of raises the question, how many other vessels would founder in the exact same circumstances?

 

[Mark-1]

There seem to be very few portholes in the hull, unless the dark blue colour is masking them.

I think everyone (including us) is interchangeably using a variety of terms to describe "openings" and portholes is one of them.

 

[Roberto]

An interview to he CEO/founder of The Italian Sea group, owner of Perini assets.

Naufragio Bayesian, Giovanni Costantino di Perini navi: «Una nave inaffondabile ma dall’equipaggio catena infinita di errori»
His reconstruction: the boat anchor drags, the boat drifts, sets abeam to the wind and begins taking on water, possibly from the stern (he mentions a watertight bulkhead beyond the opening on the transom, maybe left open?). This goes on for a few minutes.
Among the various hypothesis, he reckons water ingress caused a power outage: the b/w cctv footage from the nearby villa shows the mast completely lit, and at a certain moment all the spreader lights go off and only the masthead anchor light remains (he says that is powered by a battery). Without power, most equipment (including safety) would stop to function. He says there are doors which, if left open, would allow water ingress at 30° heeling. Perhaps not unexpectedly, he puts most of the responsibility on the crew.