GGR 22

[zoidberg]

Abhilash is heading SE close to the Great Circle Track while Kirsten, about 195m ahead, is heading east. Simon continues to plod NE towards a big steak supper and a bottle of Chilean wine.

There's a monster storm coming their way, forecast for around 7th, which will certainly blow some cobwebs away....

 

[zoidberg]

Hmmm. Kirsten has altered SE and is 'cracking on' again - as mentioned in another sailing website with peeps following events.

Michael Guggenberger has sailed into the 'brown doo-doo' below the 47th Parallel. He'll be 'On the Naughty Step' for that, come morning when the Auld Ozzie wakes up.

Edit: It seems the Auld Ozzie didn't notice that G'berger was several miles into the Forbidden Zone before someone 'tipped him the wink'.

 

[zoidberg]

Apropos 'being rolled' and post #331.

Here's a link to a Twitter video-post which shows what happens when one gets beam-on in big breaking seas....
Roll-me Over


Here's a rather better Twitter vid-post ( I hope this edit 'sticks' )

OMG !

 

[Crowblack]

Hmmm. Kirsten has altered SE and is 'cracking on' again - as mentioned in another sailing website with peeps following events.

Michael Guggenberger has sailed into the 'brown doo-doo' below the 47th Parallel. He'll be 'On the Naughty Step' for that, come morning when the Auld Ozzie wakes up.

Edit: It seems the Auld Ozzie didn't notice that G'berger was several miles into the Forbidden Zone before someone 'tipped him the wink'.

Strange - he did warn her off when Kirsten was getting close ?

 

[Frank Holden]

I heard a short time ago in the daily chitchat that a way point that was to be left to port so that people didn't get too close to a Patagonian lee shore has been removed so that the two current front runners can avoid a bit of windy stuff.
Now given that Curwin left it to port and as a result was where he was when he had his knockdown is that really fair?

I can't find any mention of it in the race notes.

 

[zoidberg]

ISTM that much of this - and the previous - GGR is made up 'on the hoof'. That doesn't detract from my respect for the efforts of the competitors.

 

[Crowblack]

Now given that Curwin left it to port and as a result was where he was when he had his knockdown is that really fair?

Nope.

 

[zoidberg]

It appears, on my display of Live Tracker at least, that someone has 'nixed' the display of No-Go Zone, together with the 'Avoid' Marks, shortly after G'berger infringed it then scuttled back north.

It also looks like both Abhilash and Kirsten are heading NE to get out of the way of the worst of the big storm heading their way on 7th. I recall from a Soundcloud voice file that Kirsten was then unable to get wxfax forecasts....

 

[Frank Holden]

The Chilean maritime weather service ( Directemar) is as good as it gets and they broadcast on 4/8/17 mHz from both Valpo and Punta Arenas so I'm not sure what her reception difficulties are.
Low bandwidth list of services
http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/indice/english.htm#Data
List of fax transmissions
Servicio Meteorológico de la Armada de Chile - Horarios y Frecuencias Transmisión de Radiofaxímil
Current synopsis
http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/cartas/carta.jpg
And for them as can't read a weathermap you can find this at 3.-Marine Weather Forcasts - High Seas
http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/PRONOSTICOS/Cenmeteovalp/zone10.txt

They also still do voice for their thousands of small fishing boats.

 

[zoidberg]

"Between the devil and...."

She was outside the coverage of New Zealand's service and the Chilean one was not yet coming in strong and clear enough, as I recall.

Simon, Kirsten and Abhilash both plugging away NE, trying to put some distance between them and the worst of the approaching monster storm, which should be on them by dawn ( their time ) on 7th. That'll be their lot for the next 30 hours or so.

 

[Frank Holden]

Rather them than me.
One to be going on with.
Early May '18, a Norwegian Jenny with a Hanse mainsail. I recall they were on a tight budget.
Working to windward westbound in Canal Ballenero - 54 and a bit south - heading out of Paso Occidental and then up the outside the whole way to Montt without incident.
Sometimes the weather gods are with you - sometimes they aren't.

 

[Frank Holden]

Is anyone else watching the 'grey man'?

While the two leaders are poking off to the NE to avoid this bit of nasty weather Guggs is just plugging away along the limiting latitude. While the leaders are only reducing their distances to go by 25/50 miles a day he is knocking off 90 or so. When he gets to the corner he will not only have reduced their lead considerably he may have a dream run down to the Horn.

Anyone know where I can put a bet on?

 

[zoidberg]

That's a valid comment, Frank, but he has over 1000/1200nm to make up respectively. Still, he may well cut that deficit in half if everything goes his way. Then there is the lottery of the South Atlantic.

It may be that Abhilash will be able to turn SE towards The Horn rather earlier than Kirsten, and knock chunks off her notional 200-odd mile lead. He'll also likely be well-positioned in a good following airstream rather earlier than Kirsten....

'The show is not over until.....'

 

[zoidberg]

Around 0000hrs UTC Tuesday 7 Feb, Simon looked to be about 120nm west of the large gulf to the south of the verdant island of Chiloe, and still apparently heading NE, for now. The Windy.ty online weather feed suggest he is unlikely to suffer the storm winds that will shortly overtake Kirsten and Abhilash, but he still has a distance to go before making a landfall.... and

I'm wondering about his plan. Might he be making for the town of Quellon, inside the shelter of the gulf? Or perhaps the village of Guitecas inside the southern corner? Is he positioning himself a bit to windward of the 20-mile wide entrance, with a low-lying 10-mile wide island in the middle or, like the coast of NW Spain, will the land be obscured by orographic cloud until he is only a mile or two off? He needs a good fix of position; certainly, a clear Latitude to run down.... to make a confident landfall.
.

 

[Frank Holden]

According to his latest satellite phone call he is heading for Montt and it looks like it will be via Chacao.

I've never been aware of the coast being obscured by cloud , the biggest issue is the tide. It really moves and the ebb is felt a long way offshore which results in rather nasty standing - and breaking waves. It is also springs. I usually slip out through Paso Chocoi and over Banco Alto del Peru. The one time I came straight in from the ocean it was 'interesting'.

Latest coastal wx -

ZONE SIX (P.MONTT TO F.SAN PEDRO):
BROKEN TO OVERCAST, VIS 10 KM, WIND N/NW 5/15 KT INCREASING 20/30 KT TO SOUTH OF AREA, SEA STATE MODERATE TO ROUGH (2.0/3.0 M) IN OCEANIC AREA.

Latest high sea wx - SW area' applies

WEATHER BULLETIN AND SEA STATE ZONE X VALID 070700/071900 UTC.
1.-SEVERE WEATHER WARNING:
CENTRAL WEST AREA (LAT 30 TO 45 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 95 TO 120 DGS WEST):
WIND W/NW 10/15 KT GUST 25 KT INCREASING TO SOUTH OF AREA 25/35 KT GUST 45 KT, SEA STATE MODERATE TO ROUGH (2.5/4.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF AREA.

CENTRAL EAST AREA (LAT 30 TO 45 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 78 TO 95 DGS WEST):
WIND S/SE 10/15 KT GUST 25 KT SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST OF AREA N/NW 25/35 KT GUST 45 KT, SEA STATE MODERATE (1.5/2.5 M), VIS AVERAGE, PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF AREA.

SOUTHWEST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 95 TO 120 DGS WEST):
WIND W/SW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (5.0/8.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHEAST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 81 TO 95 DGS WEST):
WIND N/NW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE VERY ROUGH (4.0/6.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

 

[Frank Holden]

Latest wx

'
WEATHER BULLETIN AND SEA STATE ZONE X VALID 071900/080700 UTC.
1.-SEVERE WEATHER WARNING:

SOUTHWEST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 95 TO 120 DGS WEST):
WIND W/SW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE ROUGH TO HIGH (5.0/8.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHEAST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 81 TO 95 DGS WEST):
WIND N/NW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (5.0/8.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

Unconfirmed word on the street, Abhilash has had a knockdown after the passing of the front.

 

[zoidberg]

Unconfirmed word on the street, Abhilash has had a knockdown after the passing of the front.

He won't like that!

And it's likely to get worse, for him, before it gets better.

They're both still running off ESE-ish at midnight UTC and just about dawn there. The seascape in daylight must be..... horrendous! I hope they're both strapped-in and with eyes tight shut.

Ancun as an anchorage for Simon? Doesn't look very sheltered, or salubrious. It looks the sort of place one might find a Chilean 'Steinbeck', writing about the odd characters one finds in a rundown small fishing port. It is, however, clean - and Google Street View shows a street-sweeper collecting a very few oddments of litter along the seafront.

 

[Frank Holden]

Ancud is OK if not all that well sheltered but under Punta Corona is better.
If he is waiting for the flood tide to get away he is better off waiting out beyond the pilot boarding ground while making sure the ebb doesn't set him down on Punta Huechucuicui - it runs at up to 9 knots.

I'd be entering in daylight and if I couldn't make Montt in daylight I'd anchor under Isla Abtao and go up the next day. If through Chacao in the early morning he could make Montt in the day.

Abtao is of course best known for the naval engagement there in 1866.

 

[Frank Holden]

Simon should be through Chacao today. Looking at his present position he should be well placed when the flood gets away at 0918.
http://www.shoa.cl/php/index.php
That is based on a bold assumption that the tide turns at high and low water.

 

[zoidberg]

'Nine knots!' Phew! Ay caramba.... as Bart S. used to say.

That'd be hairy enough, but with big ocean swells rolling in from two directions....