Always think what if

geem

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After the first few years of ignorant bliss I imagined more and more scenarios and always had something in mind. Trouble is, what actually happened was usually unforeseen.
My experience is that when things go wrong we normally cope but when two things go wrong it can get a bit more hectic. For example, we were motoring out of a harbour and the exhaust elbow failed. Seawater running into the engine room and plenty of smoke. No problem, I thought. Engine off and we will sail back in on the jib. Went to unfurl the jib and the furler jammed. We got the main up and sailed out of the harbour on that whilst we sorted the halyard wrap. Once fixed we hoisted the jib and with the main we tacked back into the harbour and sailed past the numerous anchored boats and re-anchored. Life can throw these little challenges occasionally.
 

zoidberg

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Like some others here, I learned about risk-assessment and decision-making when rock-climbing throughout my teens. One didn't make many mistakes back in the 60s. So, 'what could happen here, and what will I do about it'.

I brought that way of thinking to military flying, which added another layer of 'what if'ing. I survived that.

I brought that developed way of thinking to sailing. So far, some 50 years down the line, I've survived that.

And I have had a mast come down ( suddenly ). I have had someone go overboard ( suddenly ). I have had inconvenient engine failure ( suddenly ).... I have had a mooring part in a gale ( suddenly ).... I have had fire on board ( suddenly).... and I have gone aground ( suddenly, and lied about it! )

:LOL:

What's that ? 'Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement...'
 

AntarcticPilot

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Several people have mentioned that the "what if" that you've considered is never the one that happens! I got caught out entering Whitby harbour, but it wasn't the expected difficulty that was the problem! There's a vicious cross-current at the entrance to the harbour, which I'd read about and took care to counter as I entered. I was just breathing a sigh of relief (it really is quite a nasty cross-current) and looking for the waiting pontoon when there was a bang and the engine stopped! I came up with Plan A and Plan B almost immediately - Plan A being to use the way I had to get to a mooring buoy I'd spotted; Plan B was to get my crew to get the anchor down. Plan A worked, so Plan B wasn't needed. But neither Plan A nor Plan B were anything I'd even considered beforehand; I came up with them in the few seconds after the engine stopped. Under such circumstances, the mind works quickly!
 

Csfisher

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My experience is that when things go wrong we normally cope but when two things go wrong it can get a bit more hectic. For example, we were motoring out of a harbour and the exhaust elbow failed. Seawater running into the engine room and plenty of smoke. No problem, I thought. Engine off and we will sail back in on the jib. Went to unfurl the jib and the furler jammed. We got the main up and sailed out of the harbour on that whilst we sorted the halyard wrap. Once fixed we hoisted the jib and with the main we tacked back into the harbour and sailed past the numerous anchored boats and re-anchored. Life can throw these little challenges occasionally.

Which also highlights the importance of practicing such manoeuvres. Unfortunately most people don't find it fun for some reason to do so, but one day it could save you. I personally find the most enjoyable sailing to be that which challenges me - such as mooring to a buoy under sail!

But my experience crewing for people, is they're always reluctant to do so. For example, on boats with a bow thruster I see them very reluctant to try and berth without it. Even in calm conditions. I then wonder How they would cope if it stopped working.
 

Csfisher

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Several people have mentioned that the "what if" that you've considered is never the one that happens! I got caught out entering Whitby harbour, but it wasn't the expected difficulty that was the problem! There's a vicious cross-current at the entrance to the harbour, which I'd read about and took care to counter as I entered. I was just breathing a sigh of relief (it really is quite a nasty cross-current) and looking for the waiting pontoon when there was a bang and the engine stopped! I came up with Plan A and Plan B almost immediately - Plan A being to use the way I had to get to a mooring buoy I'd spotted; Plan B was to get my crew to get the anchor down. Plan A worked, so Plan B wasn't needed. But neither Plan A nor Plan B were anything I'd even considered beforehand; I came up with them in the few seconds after the engine stopped. Under such circumstances, the mind works quickly!

But the fact you came up with a plan b demonstrates that you were thinking what if plan a doesn't work.

It's good that you were observant enough to notice the mooring buoys which allowed you to react quickly
 

AntarcticPilot

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But the fact you came up with a plan b demonstrates that you were thinking what if plan a doesn't work.

It's good that you were observant enough to notice the mooring buoys which allowed you to react quickly
But the point is that I hadn't thought about it before the engine went bang; Plan A and Plan B were arrived at in seconds! And Plan B arose from the obvious consideration that I wasn't certain I had enough way on to make it to the buoy. Plan B was definitely "only if I have to" because the bottom of a harbour is highly likely to be foul.

People also need to be aware that the immediate psychological response to an unexpected crisis is one of loss of control - there was an instant where I was at a complete loss!
 

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It seems prudent to follow the route that thriller writer Lea Child’s character Jack Reacher adopts ‘ Hope for the best, plan for thé worst’
 

Babylon

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I recently lost the end of a finger - after a quarter of a century safely working with extremely dangerous machines - in the front door of my house!

Your time is up when your guardian angel decides it is, so why spend years ruining your enjoyment of sailing by neurotically considering every last fateful contingency on a passage from your mooring to the fuel pontoon?
 

TiggerToo

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Even for the atheists or agnostics, the saying "There but for the Grace of God I go" has a value. And I would always couple that with the OP title. They go together, like twins. And, IMOO, they should sit there on a balanced beam.

(ps I had two lovely aunts called Grace; sometimes I wonder if the god who does not exist is actually called Grace)
 

geem

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Which also highlights the importance of practicing such manoeuvres. Unfortunately most people don't find it fun for some reason to do so, but one day it could save you. I personally find the most enjoyable sailing to be that which challenges me - such as mooring to a buoy under sail!

But my experience crewing for people, is they're always reluctant to do so. For example, on boats with a bow thruster I see them very reluctant to try and berth without it. Even in calm conditions. I then wonder How they would cope if it stopped working.
Haha, we dont have a bow thruster. We make do with lots of prop walk and practise.
We enjoy sailing on and off the anchor. It hones the skills.
 

bitbaltic

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Engine failure when motoring is always a possibility, and unless a long way away from hazards, dropping the anchor to give you time to solve the problem has always been my immediate plan.

Agree with that, and I always have the anchor ready to go (it can’t really be otherwise as we have a simple rode and anchor in a locker without a windlass) but I might take issue with the degree of possibility represented by engine failure. As always, preventative maintenance will reduce the risk, and the best possible maintenance of the engine (with associated costs) is the best way to reduce the risk. I’ve always been immensely focussed on the idea that the engine must simply always work and it’s maintained annually by an engineer whose brief is to do their best to ensure this no expense spared. It’s 20 years old, works perfectly, and is expected to always do so.

Being totally on top of engine and start batteries is key for me as an insurance that every time we go out we will get back. It’s prob the easiest preventive thing you can do as so many RNLI shouts to yachts are for their engines.

Doesn’t mean it won’t happen but does mean I’ll not worry that it’s anything less than incredibly unlikely.
 

AntarcticPilot

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Agree with that, and I always have the anchor ready to go (it can’t really be otherwise as we have a simple rode and anchor in a locker without a windlass) but I might take issue with the degree of possibility represented by engine failure. As always, preventative maintenance will reduce the risk, and the best possible maintenance of the engine (with associated costs) is the best way to reduce the risk. I’ve always been immensely focussed on the idea that the engine must simply always work and it’s maintained annually by an engineer whose brief is to do their best to ensure this no expense spared. It’s 20 years old, works perfectly, and is expected to always do so.

Being totally on top of engine and start batteries is key for me as an insurance that every time we go out we will get back. It’s prob the easiest preventive thing you can do as so many RNLI shouts to yachts are for their engines.

Doesn’t mean it won’t happen but does mean I’ll not worry that it’s anything less than incredibly unlikely.
When it happened to me, it was nothing to do with the engine - a tree branch got into the propeller. No maintenance on earth would have stopped that.
 

zoidberg

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....I’ve always been immensely focussed on the idea that the engine must simply always work and it’s maintained annually..... an insurance that every time we go out we will get back. It’s prob the easiest preventive thing you can do as so many RNLI shouts to yachts are for their engines.

I won't argue with that.

My 'insurance' = having crewed/skippered/ rode 'shotgun' on lots of OPBs - is making pretty damn sure the sails will work. I cannot count the times I've sharpened my skills sailing OPBs onto moorings, pontoon fingers, harbour walls..... and onto anchor.

;) Just as whenever I sail on someone else's OPB, I have my own chart, HBC, h/h GPS and pencils hidden in my bag......etc.
 

Stemar

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But neither Plan A nor Plan B were anything I'd even considered beforehand;
Sometimes, the things we plan for do happen, but I think the best planning is like a passage plan to go from Portsmouth to Lymington. Few of us would write anything down, but we have an awareness of tide and weather, and the alternatives if something doesn't work out. It isn't a conscious plan, but it's a state of mind, which one can only have when one has been sailing long enough to realise the depths of one's ignorance
 

geem

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Agree with that, and I always have the anchor ready to go (it can’t really be otherwise as we have a simple rode and anchor in a locker without a windlass) but I might take issue with the degree of possibility represented by engine failure. As always, preventative maintenance will reduce the risk, and the best possible maintenance of the engine (with associated costs) is the best way to reduce the risk. I’ve always been immensely focussed on the idea that the engine must simply always work and it’s maintained annually by an engineer whose brief is to do their best to ensure this no expense spared. It’s 20 years old, works perfectly, and is expected to always do so.

Being totally on top of engine and start batteries is key for me as an insurance that every time we go out we will get back. It’s prob the easiest preventive thing you can do as so many RNLI shouts to yachts are for their engines.

Doesn’t mean it won’t happen but does mean I’ll not worry that it’s anything less than incredibly unlikely.
Absolutely- but of course not a reason not to make engine maintenance a priority.
Engine maintenance isn't a priority, it's a given. Nothing is neglected. Just in the same way as we do a rig inspection before an ocean passage and after.
 
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