Storm Ciaran

[wonkywinch]

Looking at Windy.com, windguru, and metcheck it is apparent that they don't really have a grip on this one. Anything from 40kts to 96mph.

To add to the other replies, take a look at the synoptic chart - Surface Pressure Charts

Click through (I find the black and white one easier plus it has a geostrophic wind scale at the top). You can see the Atlantic low rapidly deepening from 989 fruit pastels (midnight tonight) to 975 noon Wed to 953 midnight Wed/Thurs am then traversing the southern part of the UK and filling as it crosses the country. The isobars are most tightly packed on the south side of the low so winds will be strongest in that area. It's the track prediction that affects where will suffer those strongest winds as even 50 miles north or south of the occluded front will make a huge difference to the surface winds.

The geostrophic scale shows winds above the surface at 80+ knots around 50-51N on Thursday.

 

[johnalison]

is forecast to go over the S UK...

Where is Michael Fish when we need him?

 

[wombat88]

Met office have down graded F10s early Thursday to F9 for PO19 postcode

 

[zoidberg]

Met office have down graded F10s early Thursday to F9 for PO19 postcode

"They would say that, wouldn't they....?"

 

[Biggles Wader]

Where is Michael Fish when we need him?

"There won't be a hurricane"
Actually the poor old sod was right from a meteorologists POV but the popular press were not going to let the truth get in the way of a great bit of character assassination.
Nothing changes!

 

[zoidberg]

Is this what they call 'Explosive Deepening'....?

Where's that almost-housetrained MetOffice manager when he's needed?

Oh, and there's another one whirling along right behind! ( Let's call it 'Debi'... ) Looks like Biscay, and the Portsmouth-Santander ferry run will be unusually challenging....

 

[UK-WOOZY]

is it advisable to put down the spray hood and drop the furled genoa in the conditions? boats at gillingham marina?

 

[Wansworth]

Cancelled viewing of yacht in Coruña

 

[BobnLesley]

"There won't be a hurricane"
Actually the poor old sod was right from a meteorologists POV...

Are you sure? It only needs to blow at 75mph (64 knots) to qualify as a hurricane

 

[bikedaft]

Are you sure? It only needs to blow at 75mph (64 knots) to qualify as a hurricane

Sustained, not just gusts

 

[BobnLesley]

Sustained, not just gusts

Agreed, but i thought the 87 storm was.

 

[bikedaft]

Agreed, but i thought the 87 storm was.

I thought it wasn't no idea how to find out

 

[johnalison]

Sustained, not just gusts

It is not a distinction that has ever bothered me. I can easily accommodate the idea of a hurricane as an entity but as hurricane-force winds as defined by the Beaufort scale as something different.

 

[Stemar]

Agreed, but i thought the 87 storm was.

Hurricane force winds, but not a hurricane, 'cos they only happen in the tropics.

I thought it wasn't no idea how to find out

Wikipedia is your friend

Great storm of 1987 - Wikipedia

 

[wonkywinch]

The 1987 event also subject of a documentary on Channel 5 via the app/online.

The great storm of 87

 

[Chiara’s slave]

After a particularly entertaining, if breezy, hospital fete some time ago, F6 description in our house now reads ‘wrap skirts worn with difficulty’ as opposed to umbrellas.

pretty exposed here in Freshwater bay. We’re not too bad if it’s SW, it’s the southeasterly start that looks worrying.

 

[fisherman]

All the forecasts are back pedalling a little, as usual.

 

[Roberto]

Brittany bracing for a heavy blow, most marinas have sent warnings to berth holders.
Ensemble forecasts for wind speed off Lorient give 95% likelihood of sustained winds between 40 to 50knots.

 

[Wansworth]

Here in Galicia very strong winds and rain forecast tomottow

 

[Sandy]

Is this what they call 'Explosive Deepening'....?


Where's that almost-housetrained MetOffice manager when he's needed?

Oh, and there's another one whirling along right behind! ( Let's call it 'Debi'... ) Looks like Biscay, and the Portsmouth-Santander ferry run will be unusually challenging....

Pifffff, that is nothing, the more worrying thing is the ile de Batz foot ferry has been canceled!

The lovely people along the road in Fitzroy Road, are suggesting that a F12 in Le Manche is likely.