Is climate destabilisation making cruising increasingly too risky?

[bushwacka]

Take a look at this carnage after hurricane Beryl passed through Carriacou Grenada. An unprecedented event nobody was expecting.

 

[Sandy]

Hurricanes happen every year, often several times a year, and have done so for thousands of years. Hardly an unprecedented event.

I just wonder where the northern European summer has gone.

 

[fredrussell]

I worry when the say sea levels may rise by up to two feet. Thats more than the freeboard of my boat. To combat this I intend to install waterproof bulwarks at least two feet high, and I suggest you do the same.

 

[lustyd]

I read somewhere that the tropics won’t be inhabitable in 20 years anyway due to extreme heat (constant 50 degrees plus) so it may not be an issue for cruising for long.

 

[Bristolfashion]

Long term, reliable weather systems are changing or disappearing, so I think cruising will get more tricky over time - from a 2 week summer cruise being harder to plan to unseasonal storms & gales.

 

[Sea Change]

Hurricanes happen every year, often several times a year, and have done so for thousands of years. Hardly an unprecedented event.

I just wonder where the northern European summer has gone.

Beryl was only the second cat 5 hurricane ever recorded in July, and the earliest by a full two weeks. The sea temperatures which feed this are currently at the levels normally seen in September, after a whole summer of heating.

Carriacou has never been hit by this strength of hurricane before. They were impacted by Ivan in 2004, but that was only a cat 3.

Currently, Sahara dust is blowing across the Atlantic causing a cooling effect and preventing further hurricanes from developing, but that is only a temporary respite. It's going to be the most active session ever recorded.

 

[Sea Change]

Oh and by the way, my boat is clearly seen in that video, about eight seconds in.

 

[veshengro]

It's a dreadful shame about the damage and losses in the Boat Yards but hopefully any suitable mobile yard cranes, forklifts and man power is used to work on the Island infrastructure and getting the people housed, before they bother with foreigner's boats.

 

[LittleSister]

No, climate destabilisation (good illuminating term, by the way) is not making cruising increasingly too risky.

I suggest that only an extremely few individuals will currently take that view. (The level of risk being in the view of the beholder, not something inherent in the weather itself.) Most will continue regardless, a few will adjust their plans in the light of emerging patterns (e.g. extended hurricane seasons).

It certainly is the case that climate destabilisation is making cruising and much else, including life itself in some places, increasingly risky.

On current trends the technologies and economies that produce boats and much else needed for cruising could eventually be at risk (well beyond our lifetimes, hopefully), in which case weather to sail could be the least of our problems.

 

[LittleSister]

It's a dreadful shame about the damage and losses in the Boat Yards but hopefully any suitable mobile yard cranes, forklifts and man power is used to work on the Island infrastructure and getting the people housed, before they bother with foreigner's boats.

One would hope so, but typically such resources will follow the money.

 

[LittleSister]

I worry when the say sea levels may rise by up to two feet. Thats more than the freeboard of my boat. To combat this I intend to install waterproof bulwarks at least two feet high, and I suggest you do the same.

That'll be a good start, but I read if all the polar ice and glaciers melted we'd be looking at a sea level rise just short of 60 metres. Watch out for windage problems as you continue upwards!

 

[veshengro]

" One would hope so, but typically such resources will follow the money."

Yes, prioritise the boat yards to earn the money to rebuild the essentials. I'm glad it's not my decision as to how to deal with the problem.

 

[geem]

....

Take a look at this carnage after hurricane Beryl passed through Carriacou Grenada. An unprecedented event nobody was expecting.

It occurred in hurricane season. June 1st to end of November has been the hurricane season for many years, as far as the insurance industry is concerned. The meteorologist have been predicting an active hurricane season for months. The sea temperature is sky high and has been all winter.
I am not sure is would be described as unprecedented. Thr only aspect is that it occurred earlier than ever before, but it was still in hurricane season. I guess the meteorologist who issued advisories earlier this year would say, I told you so

 

[john_morris_uk]

Currently, Sahara dust is blowing across the Atlantic causing a cooling effect and preventing further hurricanes from developing, but that is only a temporary respite. It's going to be the most active session ever recorded.

I know it’s too late for you but I hope you’ll not mind me saying long may that Sahara dust continue to cool the seas etc. As you know we’re laid up ashore a bit further N and perhaps more in the likely hurricane path. Fortunately many tropical storms track even further N than us but I’m watching the forecast every day. (Not that I can do anything about it!)

 

[RupertW]

It's a dreadful shame about the damage and losses in the Boat Yards but hopefully any suitable mobile yard cranes, forklifts and man power is used to work on the Island infrastructure and getting the people housed, before they bother with foreigner's boats.

That’s a very snide comment. The owners of those boats have got together and most of them agreed to allow locals to take what they need from the boats - there’s a lot of bottled water and tinned/dried foods on them plus tools etc. Many other foreigners have been buying and collecting donations and bringing them up in their boats from Grenada. Those of use who keep their boats there are made to feel very much part of the community in good times so it makes sense being part of the community where possible in bad times too.

 

[Stemar]

I wouldn't call it snide. Saving lives and homes absolutely should have a higher priority than saving rich foreigners' toys.

Yes, I know some of those boats are peoples' homes, but how many is that, and how many are actually homeless? I know there are some, and it would be great to help them but, when equipment and manpower is limited, you have to work on 'greatest good for greatest number', which must surely be in towns and villages.

 

[veshengro]

" That’s a very snide comment. "

No mate. Just logical thinking about the best use of scarce resources.

 

[Stemar]

I worry when the say sea levels may rise by up to two feet. Thats more than the freeboard of my boat. To combat this I intend to install waterproof bulwarks at least two feet high, and I suggest you do the same.

It's a bit more than Jazzcat's freeboard, but I rather hope that, after the sea level has risen by two feet, Jazzcat's deck will still be much the same.

Brendan, once of this parish, posted a link to a map that showed the effect of a 40m rise in sea level. It wasn't all bad. The upside was that I'd be able to park the boat at the bottom of my drive. The downside was that I'd have to use it to get to Sainsbury's

 

[geem]

The boatyards are businesses. They have been severely impacted by the hurricane. The boatyards employ local labour. Those individuals have lost their homes. They need income to survive and rebuild there homes. They will only get income from working or donations from others. The yards and the workers all need to get back on their feet. Houses won't be rebuilt until building materials and equipment arrive on the island. It's blazing hot and there is little shade. Temporary roof coverings water and power will be the initial priority. The businesses will be looking to get back on their feet ASAP, including boatyards. I suspect the boatyards will not get priority for heavy lifting equipment as there really isn't any on Carriacou.
For those that have insurance, there will be a stream of income for the boatyards if they can get lifting equipment to put boats back upright. Most of the income on Carriacou is associated with tourism of which cruisers play a major part. That is where most of the island income comes from in one way or another. I really don't think there is a conflict of instrests. Thr locals and the cruising community there are quite intertwined and supportive of each other in my experience

 

[RunAgroundHard]

Risks due to weather severity as a result of climate change may end up with increased insurance premiums or no insurance for certain areas. That could ring the death knell. However, cruisers will move onwards. It was not so long ago that the NW passage and other remote areas were hardly visited. Now it is relatively common. So, in a way, I think the cruising areas may change in response to MMGW.

Scotland’ weather is still crap and likely to get wetter.