Is climate destabilisation making cruising increasingly too risky?

[seansea]

I read somewhere that the tropics won’t be inhabitable in 20 years anyway due to extreme heat (constant 50 degrees plus) so it may not be an issue for cruising for long.

Presume you mean 'won't be habitable'.

 

[lustyd]

Presume you mean 'won't be habitable'.

Either is correct.

 

[webcraft]

Scotland always was wet - is it measurably different in terms of rainfall amount and days with sunshine? I recall summers with few or no sunny days. I sense, but cannot prove, that Western UK winds in recent years have been more volatile with a greater difference between average and gust wind strengths.

It is no longer reasonable to passage plan using the 'steady' windspeeds on Windy or PredictWind , it is essential to use the gust forecast as it seems to blow at this strength for at least 50% of the time now. Just back from a very wet, windy and terminated early cruise of the NW.

- W

 

[RunAgroundHard]

This year in Scotland may not be representative of MMGW. It could be an Elnino event.

 

[srm]

This year in Scotland may not be representative of MMGW. It could be an Elnino event.

But El Nino events have become far more frequent:

"The frequency of extreme El Niños doubles from about one event every 20 years (101 events in 2,000 years) in the control, to one every 10 years (212 events in 2,000 years) in the climate change period"
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming - Nature Climate Change

"The new study shows that, historically, there was a strong link between changes in solar output and the onset of El Niño, but now El Niño is more heavily influenced by human-caused warming".
Climate Change Now a Major Factor in Formation of El Niño

 

[franksingleton]

The chickens are coming home to roost. IPCC reports have always been clear that increased heating of the atmosphere would lead to changes in our climate. Models have always been best endeavours particularly as ocean modelling is, at least, an order of magnitude more difficult. This has made it easier for the industry, politicians and doubters to ignore and ridicule the warnings.
Mankind has sat on its hands for far too long. Whether it will be possible even to slow the flywheel down must be doubtful, never mind reverse it,

 

[RunAgroundHard]

Maybe buying the next size up anchor for humble coastal cruisers is not such a bad idea now.

 

[lustyd]

Well now you've said the magic words. Neeves will be along to explain anchor sizes shortly...

 

[Bristolfashion]

Well now you've said the magic words. Neeves will be along to explain anchor sizes shortly...

Noooooooooooo!

 

[franksingleton]

I read somewhere that the tropics won’t be inhabitable in 20 years anyway due to extreme heat (constant 50 degrees plus) so it may not be an issue for cruising for long.

Temperature is not the killer. It is wet-bulb temperature. At values higher than about 35 degC. The body cannot regulate itself by perspiration. Even healthy, fit people will die. These conditions have occurred in parts of Florida for short spells as well as in parts of the Indian Sub-continent.

 

[srm]

I read somewhere that the tropics won’t be inhabitable in 20 years anyway due to extreme heat (constant 50 degrees plus) so it may not be an issue for cruising for long.

During MN firefighting training we were working in temps of around 100C, using full BA sets. Admittedly only for around an hour and then rehydrated with a salt solution. In the days of coal fired steam ships stokers probably worked in similar conditions for their full shift.

 

[lustyd]

During MN firefighting training we were working in temps of around 100C, using full BA sets. Admittedly only for around an hour and then rehydrated with a salt solution. In the days of coal fired steam ships stokers probably worked in similar conditions for their full shift.

Not really what I'd hall habitable though. Probably better to just move somewhere less extreme.