Is climate destabilisation making cruising increasingly too risky?

[LittleSister]

Scotland’ weather is still crap and likely to get wetter.

They say if the Gulf Stream [part of AMOC] switches off, our coastline will be ice-bound much of the year!

 

[Supertramp]

They say if the Gulf Stream [part of AMOC] switches off, our coastline will be ice-bound much of the year!

That will work wonders for the residuals of steel and aluminium boats!

And make the springtime voyage north a bit more exciting.

Look forward to "The Inner Isles Rally with Jimmy Cornell".

And some interesting ice anchoring threads.....

 

[RunAgroundHard]

They say if the Gulf Stream [part of AMOC] switches off, our coastline will be ice-bound much of the year!

Indeed! I worked at Russia’s Sakhalin Island, the northern most island of the Japanese island chain, about 46N Yuzhno Sakalinski, compared to Glasgow’s 56N. The sea was frozen solid from December to May just a bit further north, but clear at 46N, although very much brass monkey land. Through a combination of desperation, alcohol and government steam pipe network, it all sort of worked. Rescuing drunk sport fishing people from broken off ice chunks was a regular feature.

The lowest temperatures were around -32 Celsius and we did not have to use arctic grade steel for the structures I worked with. Later I worked inland, well north of Moscow and a cold day was -46 Celsius, but usually -32 Celsius. Even further north it was always below -40 Celsius in the winter and there the rigs were built from an arctic grade of steel.

I hated it, slide the car off the road and loose your heating, you were going to die, slip and knock yourself out or break a leg, on the way back from the pub, dead. It is just shit at these temperatures. In spring time, layers of frozen dog shit would slip out the melting snow.

 

[Sea Change]

You are being very short termist. You are only looking at 'recorded weather' events.

I can't think why the OP though that hurricanes are unexpected as they happen every year. Perhaps unusual in terms of month, but lots of pals were surprised by storm Antonio in August 2023 and had to be reminded about the Fastnet storm many years ago.

When it comes to weather and climate nothing surprises me. I can show you round some lovely glacial features in north Devon and on Dartmoor.

Ok, you can argue that we only have reliable records for a hundred years or so. But those show an absolutely irrefutable trend.

I wish you were right, by the way. But unfortunately you're not.

 

[bushwacka]

Hurricanes happen every year, often several times a year, and have done so for thousands of years. Hardly an unprecedented event.

I just wonder where the northern European summer has gone.

This was an unprecedented hurricane in the sense that it was the earliest recorded cat 5 storm supercharged by unprecedentedly warm waters in the Carribean. So anomalous are these conditions that this enabled a tropical depression to develop into a cat 4 stage in just two days. This is just nuts - unheard of by marine scientists and people living in the region. If you bother to follow the climate data the world has experienced thirteenth consecutive month of record breaking global temperatures with extreme weather events becoming the new norm. The average global temperatures have exceeded 1.5C over the last 12 months - an increase above pre-industrial levels considered by climate scientists to have breached safe limits for humanity. Most of these climate scientists expect to see average global temperatures exceed 2.5C later this century so it follows that the extreme weather events occurring now are only a foretaste of what is in store. Given the growing unpredictablity and severity of weather both on land and at sea it is not unreasonable to speculate if cruising might reach a point in the not too distant future where the risks far outweigh any reward.

World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target

 

[srm]

They say if the Gulf Stream [part of AMOC] switches off, our coastline will be ice-bound much of the year!

Yes, have a look at conditions along the Canadian coastline of Newfoundland and Labrador for a foretaste of the fairly near future. Covers the same range of latitude as the UK. but without the benefit of the warm oceanic current.

 

[LittleSister]

Yes, have a look at conditions along the Canadian coastline of Newfoundland and Labrador for a foretaste of the fairly near future. Covers the same range of latitude as the UK. but without the benefit of the warm oceanic current.

No problem. We'll all move to the Azores.

Or maybe the Canaries.

 

[srm]

No problem. We'll all move to the Azores.

Or maybe the Canaries.

Too late, the marinas are all full and no all weather anchorages.

 

[Sandy]

Looking at the video I am left wondering why boats were parked ashore with the masts up in an area where strong winds could be reasonably expected.

When I lived in Shetland and Orkney no one ever put a boat ashore for the winter with the mast up because we knew it might get windy. We were too far north for hurricanes but around one year in four we could get sustained winds in the 70 to 85 knots range for a few hours.

Another thought. In Bruce's Yard in Faro, Portugal they tie down the boats in their cradles to rings set in concrete. It is the only place I've seen it done, but looks a great idea for any yard.

 

[Sea Change]

Another thought. In Bruce's Yard in Faro, Portugal they tie down the boats in their cradles to rings set in concrete. It is the only place I've seen it done, but looks a great idea for any yard.

The yard in Carriacou does the same thing.

 

[geem]

Another thought. In Bruce's Yard in Faro, Portugal they tie down the boats in their cradles to rings set in concrete. It is the only place I've seen it done, but looks a great idea for any yard.

It's pretty normal in Caribbean boat yards, for obvious reasons

 

[Stemar]

I'm well aware of that, and good for them. All I'm saying is that the boats piled up in marinas and yards should take a far lower priority than saving lives and rebuilding homes

 

[Sea Change]

I'm well aware of that, and good for them. All I'm saying is that the boats piled up in marinas and yards should take a far lower priority than saving lives and rebuilding homes

I believe they are. Certainly our boat is sitting exactly where Beryl left it.

 

[Sandy]

Ok, you can argue that we only have reliable records for a hundred years or so. But those show an absolutely irrefutable trend.

I wish you were right, by the way. But unfortunately you're not.

I said nothing about trends, that is one debate I am not getting into that on this forum, I was just stating that a) the records cover a tiny fraction of geological time and b) human memory is short.

Posted by an engineer who loves geology and weather.

 

[westernman]

According to news reports it already is.

I can't hold it in for the 18h it takes to fly from Singapore to New York. What should I do?

 

[john_morris_uk]

I believe they are. Certainly our boat is sitting exactly where Beryl left it.

I suppose you can console yourself with the thought that it can’t fall any further. So long as water isn’t getting in it presumably won’t come to any more harm.

 

[srm]

I can't hold it in for the 18h it takes to fly from Singapore to New York. What should I do?

As this is a sailing forum I suggest you make a start on your passage plan.

 

[bushwacka]

More footage of this unbelievable carnage.

 

[oldharry]

Long term, reliable weather systems are changing or disappearing, so I think cruising will get more tricky over time - from a 2 week summer cruise being harder to plan to unseasonal storms & gales.

But it's been like thàt ever since I started sailing 70 years ago. I remember about 45 years ago when we never left hàrbour as the wind never dropped below f6 the entire fortnight. As a child holidaying in W Wales wet days añd at least 2 gales were the norm, The memory tends to focus on the good memories , but for me the gales were the most exciting so I remember them.

 

[franksingleton]

IPCC reports have consistently said that there will be an increase in severity of hurricanes but not, necessarily, an increase in overall numbers.
Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate. An average global rise of around 30 cm is expected by 2050. Estimates by 2100 are for, at least, another metre. A major uncertainty is the Thwaite’s glacier. BAS is watching it carefully in a joint U.K./US study. By itself, it could generate a 60 cm rise of 60 cm. However, it is a dam for the whole of the western Antarctic. When it collapses, it will lead to a long term rise of many tens of metres by 2300.