incoming ! Solar Flare
- Thread starter sarabande
- Start date
Sultans_Kapitein
RIP
Well according to Dr Helen Mason on Midweek this morning, we are okay as it is not coming our way, she is a solar physicist at the University of Cambridge, so I think she is a reliable source
Mal
sarabande
Well-Known Member
from this site
http://spaceweather.com/
"This is the 4th significant flare from AR1598 since it emerged over the southeastern limb only three days ago. This means more flares are probably in the offing, and they will become increasingly Earth-directed as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. "
and the Space Weather Prediction Centre
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
"his region is still several days away from directly facing Earth from center disk. Nonetheless, the potential for continued activity remains, so stay tuned for updates as Region 1598 makes its way across the visible disk."
What I didn't know prior to reading more deeply into AR1598 is that CMEs normally leave the sun's surface at 90degrees, which is why it's only when in the centre of the sun's face that techies become jittery about their satellites and start turning them off and rotating them sideways.
The lady is correct: at the moment it is facing away from Earth.
http://spaceweather.com/
"This is the 4th significant flare from AR1598 since it emerged over the southeastern limb only three days ago. This means more flares are probably in the offing, and they will become increasingly Earth-directed as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. "
and the Space Weather Prediction Centre
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
"his region is still several days away from directly facing Earth from center disk. Nonetheless, the potential for continued activity remains, so stay tuned for updates as Region 1598 makes its way across the visible disk."
What I didn't know prior to reading more deeply into AR1598 is that CMEs normally leave the sun's surface at 90degrees, which is why it's only when in the centre of the sun's face that techies become jittery about their satellites and start turning them off and rotating them sideways.
The lady is correct: at the moment it is facing away from Earth.
rob2
Well-Known Member
It may be a good thing that the occasional solar flare renders GPS inoperative - it reinforces the advice (so often ignored) that paper charts should always be carried and the skills and tools neccessary to use them. I certainly have the charts on hand, but as most of my sailing is pilotage around the Solent using Mk 1 eyeball, I admit I should get some practice in plotting at an acceptable speed - otherwise I'll just about be in time to name the rock we've just hit!
Rob.
Rob.
D
Deleted member 36384
Guest
THIS is IT the BUILD up is began and will ALL BE SORRY and will laugh at YOUR DESPAIR because it was for nothing ur DOUBTS and LIES!!!!!!!! IT is as 4told the DARK of winter solstis WILL BE never ENDING!!!!!!!!
CreakyDecks
Well-Known Member
I hope it won't be as disastrous as that millennium bug.
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
The Millennium Bug was a damp squib precisely because people took it seriously, and fixed problems before the relevant date. This took a great deal of time and effort and expense. For example, the entire accounting system where I worked had to be replaced, as the existing bespoke system couldn't cope with 4 digit years. Not fixing it wasn't an option; it would have resulted in the software thinking bills for next year were due 100 years ago! Unfortunately, the press hype did suggest problems with systems (like engine control software) that couldn't possibly be affected.
The companies most affected tended to be the early adopters, who started using software int he bad old days when memory and disc space were at a premium, so you avoided using any more space than you had to - using a 2 digit year saved a lot of space if you were storing millions of records. I did a lot of my early computing on a large University main-frame - users were permitted to use a whole 400 kilobytes of memory! And that was an IBM 3081Q; a vast machine by the standards of the time. I also used a Cray inthe late 80s; even that had memory that you'd turn your nose up at if a PC was offered to you with that little these days.
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
So all the thousands of commercial aircraft flying around on GPS primary with paperless cockpits are about to get lost are they?
I'll look out for it in news.
I'll look out for it in news.
Mad Pad
Well-Known Member
It's all fine,they all have a bubble sextant and sight reduction tables as a back up.......Don't they?
I have a sextant and NP 401(FROM MEMORY)as a back up.
At least THEY can follow the railway lines!
I have a sextant and NP 401(FROM MEMORY)as a back up.
At least THEY can follow the railway lines!
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
Pye_End
Well-Known Member
Presume they still have ADF, VOR, inertial systems etc - ie pre-gps navigational equipment?
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
IRS for long rage but ADF and VOR are a bit scarce over the ocean! I haven't read a case in my airline of loss of GPS primary in the last 10 years.
We're at the stage of precision approaches based only on DGPS with no other system required. known as RNP AR APRCH. In Europe EGNOS now offers safety of life service for aviation.
Pye_End
Well-Known Member
I take it this means they do still have electronic backup instrumentation in case of GPS failure on board?
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
Yes the latest systems are an integration of IRS (laser) and GPS however GPS is the primary nav source and systems will only revert if GPS is lost, which it isn't.
The best IRS are certified for 2nm drift per hour. Which is why no one uses them as a primary nav source anymore.
ADF is almost extinct and VOR is heading the same way.
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
The point is that a MAJOR flare - and there was a truly enormous one in the 19th century - would certainly knock out the GPS signal, and quite possibly kill at least some of the satellites.
GrahamD
Well-Known Member
Would it burn holes in my paper chart?
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
Bit of a shame that most of the emergency services will be relying on it then!!!
Tidewaiter2
Well-Known Member
Fenris is coming then
Ah, RAGNAROK, At Last
I'll get my axe and hammer, 'Trollbane'
Ah, RAGNAROK, At Last
I'll get my axe and hammer, 'Trollbane'
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
Bit of a shame that most of the emergency services will be relying on it then!!!
As it is hardly news that a) very big flares are on record and b) that all satellite infrastructure is vulnerable, then I hope thay have a contingency plan.
Seriously, this is a well known issue in the space business; I would hope that GPS is not a "single point of failure" for any situation where human life is at risk. As standard risk management methods try and remove single points of failure, then I would expect airlcraft and emergency services to have alternative means of navigation.
BTW, your chart won't scorch, but your compass will be unreliable.
alant
Well-Known Member
Arn't solar flares able to knock out sensitive electronics (other than GPS & comms satellites) then?
