Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
If the aircraft is in your house there are more pressing issues than what nav kit got it there!!
incoming ! Solar Flare
- Thread starter sarabande
- Start date
KellysEye
Well-Known Member
My understanding is that airliners use a variety of systems for local and long distance navigation so are not reliant on GPS. These are:
-ADF The Automatic Direction Finder resembles a compass with a large arrow in the center. The pilot selects the frequency of a non-directional beacon station, and the needle points to the station.
- VOR A Very High Frequency Omni Directional Range resembles a compass with a bar hanging down the middle. The pilot rotates the bar until the needle is centered, and that will guide the aircraft to the VOR ground station.
- INS The Inertial Navigation System is set by the pilot before taking off. The pilot sets the coordinates of his present position, and using a variety of gyroscopes, the system will keep track of the aircraft's position throughout the flight.
- GPS The Global Positioning System uses a series of satellites that calculate the aircraft's position. The GPS unit provides a display that shows the plane's position on a map.
- Compass The most basic tool is the standard magnetic compass.
-ADF The Automatic Direction Finder resembles a compass with a large arrow in the center. The pilot selects the frequency of a non-directional beacon station, and the needle points to the station.
- VOR A Very High Frequency Omni Directional Range resembles a compass with a bar hanging down the middle. The pilot rotates the bar until the needle is centered, and that will guide the aircraft to the VOR ground station.
- INS The Inertial Navigation System is set by the pilot before taking off. The pilot sets the coordinates of his present position, and using a variety of gyroscopes, the system will keep track of the aircraft's position throughout the flight.
- GPS The Global Positioning System uses a series of satellites that calculate the aircraft's position. The GPS unit provides a display that shows the plane's position on a map.
- Compass The most basic tool is the standard magnetic compass.
D
Deleted member 36384
Guest
Are thermionic valves effected by solar radiation and EMP?
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
Of these, the only one that could be immune to a BIG solar flare is the INS.
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
Yes; it is the signals between devices that are affected, not the devices themselves.
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
Any newish comercial aircraft will have an integrated navigation system offering Area Navigation (RNAV) capability meeting at least some of the ICAO Required Navigation Performance specifications which are currently being implemented globally but on different time scales.
The concept is that the integrated system meets a declared navigation accuracy and you use it on procedures which require no more than your system is capable of.
The more critical procedures require systems which monitor themselves and alert the crew when accuracy is degraded.
The most accurate and therefore critical in terms of terrain clearance type of procedures are promulgated on dual DGPS. Some states require an IRS as a fallback to get away from the terrain in case of GPS failure. Others don't.
If anyone is really interested in the facts about GPS vunrebility to solar flare then pop over here: http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=GPSSOI or have a read of the EGNOS safety of life service document here: http://www.essp-sas.eu/service_definition_documents
The concept is that the integrated system meets a declared navigation accuracy and you use it on procedures which require no more than your system is capable of.
The more critical procedures require systems which monitor themselves and alert the crew when accuracy is degraded.
The most accurate and therefore critical in terms of terrain clearance type of procedures are promulgated on dual DGPS. Some states require an IRS as a fallback to get away from the terrain in case of GPS failure. Others don't.
If anyone is really interested in the facts about GPS vunrebility to solar flare then pop over here: http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=GPSSOI or have a read of the EGNOS safety of life service document here: http://www.essp-sas.eu/service_definition_documents
colingr
Well-Known Member
More worrying, will I still be able to do my daily radio checks with the coastguard in the Solent? 
Buck Turgidson
Well-Known Member
including ring laser giros?
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
I think that the point is that a flare like the Carrington Event would probably even kill systems like "Fly By Wire" - never mind navigational systems. I strongly suspect that the majority of aircraft would be grounded as a precaution in the event of such a massive flare.
Boreades
Well-Known Member
Just in case the worst happened, it's comforting to know we've still got a Strategic Steam Reserve.
oldgit
Well-Known Member
Far more importantly...will it get me that glowing summer tan I missed out on this summer. ?
prv
Well-Known Member
The vast stocks of Ministry Marge etc that really did exist have long since been disposed of, so I'm pretty sure the secret underground rolling stock would have found its way onto eBay by now along with the Green Goddesses if it wasn't the figment of overheated anoraks' imaginations
Pete
sarabande
Well-Known Member
in the MoD sheds at Dunkeswell, till about 5 years ago, there were dozens of Green Goddesses. Now all gone to Withams.
misterg
Well-Known Member
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/lowres-Severe-Space-Weather-FINAL.pdf
There is a follow-up paper (I think by the same authors) which builds on the detection of flares on other 'sun like' stars by the Kepler satellite reported here to make predictions of the likelihood of a 'Carrington' type event. I thought it was to be published in May or June this year, but can't see any sign of it. The gist was that the probability of large CMEs followed the same type of power law as smaller events (this had been postulated previously, but the Kepler observations were used to verify this).
After finishing his presentation of this paper, the presenter was asked in a rather 'tongue-in-cheek' manner what he would do if such a flare was imminent. He laughed, then very seriously said "well I certainly wouldn't fly..."
Won't be long now....
Andy
There is a follow-up paper (I think by the same authors) which builds on the detection of flares on other 'sun like' stars by the Kepler satellite reported here to make predictions of the likelihood of a 'Carrington' type event. I thought it was to be published in May or June this year, but can't see any sign of it. The gist was that the probability of large CMEs followed the same type of power law as smaller events (this had been postulated previously, but the Kepler observations were used to verify this).
After finishing his presentation of this paper, the presenter was asked in a rather 'tongue-in-cheek' manner what he would do if such a flare was imminent. He laughed, then very seriously said "well I certainly wouldn't fly..."
Won't be long now....
Andy
prv
Well-Known Member
I understand a lot of them went to Africa. Very sensible - simple, robust, maintainable, and good off road.
Pete
Billjratt
Well-Known Member
If it kills 'fly by wire', there's going to be chaos on the roads as well.
When did you last drive a car with an accelerator cable attached to the pedal?
Tidewaiter2
Well-Known Member
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
Quite likely! But such events don't last long; we're looking at a day or two at the outside.
Long cable runs will be more susceptible than short ones.
Seriously, if such an event happens, there will be about 12-24 hours warning, and there will be a longer period when it is known to be a possibility. A lot of times when there is a possibility will be false alarms, because the event itself depends on there being an unusually active region on the Sun (which is what would give early warning) and it firing off a flare when it is pointed at the Earth - which is the unpredictable bit. We will know when we're in the firing line - that's what gives the 12-24 hours warning. That should be enough to make safe most systems - and that may well include giving advice to stay at home and to disconnect electrical equipment. Pretty much all power-distribution and communications would be vulnerable, and I'd guess that a lot of systems would have to be shut down to protect them.
I should emphasize that these are rare events; from ice-core data we know they happen about once in 500 years. But they DO happen; we are fortunate enough to have one recorded during a period when enough measurements could be made to understand what happened, and to link it with other observations.
Incidentally, a yacht might experience strange electrical effects, up to getting shocks from the rigging!
The real worry would be long-haul flights across the Pacific, where a plane may not be able to land during the warning period.
MASH
N/A
People seem to be missing a number of important points here.
Aeroplanes and cars operate inside the ionosphere. Not much gets through that, even in a big solar event.
Aeroplanes and cars are pretty effective faraday cages, not much of that small amount of radiation will get through.
Aeroplane designers will (surprise!) have thought of this and designed against it. FBW effects are certainly not something that the manufacturers even bother to mention to their pilots so one can assume the risk is as close to zero as makes no difference (as opposed to temporary loss of GPS which could be a mild annoyance in the airways, and possibly as much as a nuisance if you wanted to land off a GPS only approach and no other aids were available, which is about as likely at the moment as it interfering with the FBW because there are so few such approaches.
Nowhere else on the internet can I find any mention of a current solar flare that is more severe than usual, certainly there is no concern whatsoever out there.
Methinks this is all a solar storm in a vacuum tube...
Aeroplanes and cars operate inside the ionosphere. Not much gets through that, even in a big solar event.
Aeroplanes and cars are pretty effective faraday cages, not much of that small amount of radiation will get through.
Aeroplane designers will (surprise!) have thought of this and designed against it. FBW effects are certainly not something that the manufacturers even bother to mention to their pilots so one can assume the risk is as close to zero as makes no difference (as opposed to temporary loss of GPS which could be a mild annoyance in the airways, and possibly as much as a nuisance if you wanted to land off a GPS only approach and no other aids were available, which is about as likely at the moment as it interfering with the FBW because there are so few such approaches.
Nowhere else on the internet can I find any mention of a current solar flare that is more severe than usual, certainly there is no concern whatsoever out there.
Methinks this is all a solar storm in a vacuum tube...
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
There is one such extreme event recorded: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859. There is evidence of earlier ones from nitrate deposition in ice cores from the Arctic and Antarctic, which allows us to make statements about their frequency.
This page (from NASA!) gives evidence of the capacity of large solar flares to cuase ground-level damage.
For normal solar activity you are correct. I am talking about very rare extreme events, where the effects certainly DO make it down to sea-level, to the extent that telegraphers in the 19th century were getting electrical shock from their equipment during the only such event that has been observed to date.
The ground-level effects in this case are mainly caused by disturbance of the geomagnetic field, and are equivalent to the EMP of a nuclear weapon. These disturbances induce large currents in conductors, which is why communications and power distribution are the main worries at ground-level.
Of course, satellites would be subject to extreme radiation fluxes, far beyond the usual design maxima.
I stress again that I am NOT talking about the usual sort of solar flare; I am talking about rare extreme events.
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