For the Crabby-Ian dwellers. Early hurricane season

[geem]

I spent a few summers in the Carribean and my plan was always to sail away if a direct hit looked likely. The track recored of those that stayed in hurricanes in a direct hit is dismal. No hurricane hole or mangrove will guarantee safety. A perfectly sheltered mangrove will leave you susceptible to ending up on land, bashed to bits by the waves or if still in the water, bashed to bits by the storm surge and waves on the sea bed, or by other boats and 150mph flying missiles from trees and buildings, not to mention the consequences of continual knock downs and flooding risk.

You don’t have to go far at all to escape to a safe level of winds at sea. Less than 100 miles should do it usually, so why escape isn’t the first choice strategy, I just don’t understand.

Totally agree

 

[BobnLesley]

...my plan was always to sail away if a direct hit looked likely. The track record of those that stayed in hurricanes in a direct hit is dismal... You don’t have to go far at all to escape to a safe level of winds at sea. Less than 100 miles should do it usually, so why escape isn’t the first choice strategy, I just don’t understand.

A little more difficult/risky when the storm centre is predicted to come through the southern islands as if a storm changes course late it invariably tracks further north; a substantial number of boats that got twatted in Grenada in 2004 had actually sailed up there from Trinidad to avoid Ivan's predicted course.
I'd certainly agree with regard to storms tracking further north though. We knew a lot of boats who were still in St Martin when Irma was approaching in 2017; it was predicted well in advance and virtually all those yachties who were aboard and afloat headed south with ample time to spare; I know I'm a bit cynical, but I couldn't help but notice that of those that chose to remain, a high proportion were actively or at least passively trying to sell their boats, in a market and location which wouldn't garner them anywhere close to their boats' insured values.

 

[Stingo]

A little more difficult/risky when the storm centre is predicted to come through the southern islands as if a storm changes course late it invariably tracks further north; a substantial number of boats that got twatted in Grenada in 2004 had actually sailed up there from Trinidad to avoid Ivan's predicted course.
I'd certainly agree with regard to storms tracking further north though. We knew a lot of boats who were still in St Martin when Irma was approaching in 2017; it was predicted well in advance and virtually all those yachties who were aboard and afloat headed south with ample time to spare; I know I'm a bit cynical, but I couldn't help but notice that of those that chose to remain, a high proportion were actively or at least passively trying to sell their boats, in a market and location which wouldn't garner them anywhere close to their boats' insured values.

But the devious insurance companies have an exclusion clause along the lines of "not covered in a named storm", ie no insurance cover during Irma.

 

[geem]

But the devious insurance companies have an exclusion clause along the lines of "not covered in a named storm", ie no insurance cover during Irma.

I think getting hurricane insurance now compared to then is very different. There are far fewer insurers in the marine insurance market and few will give named storm cover. If you do get cover, it is at a huge premium.

 

[Zing]

A little more difficult/risky when the storm centre is predicted to come through the southern islands as if a storm changes course late it invariably tracks further north; a substantial number of boats that got twatted in Grenada in 2004 had actually sailed up there from Trinidad to avoid Ivan's predicted course.
I'd certainly agree with regard to storms tracking further north though. We knew a lot of boats who were still in St Martin when Irma was approaching in 2017; it was predicted well in advance and virtually all those yachties who were aboard and afloat headed south with ample time to spare; I know I'm a bit cynical, but I couldn't help but notice that of those that chose to remain, a high proportion were actively or at least passively trying to sell their boats, in a market and location which wouldn't garner them anywhere close to their boats' insured values.

Yes, in Grenada or Trinidad your options are reduced, so your plan will be a bit different, to leave earlier and probably to go to the ABCs or heave to somewhere suitably located and come back after a few days when it’s over.

 

[franksingleton]

Does http://iodlabs.ucsd.edu/raz/OceanWeb/assignments/Hurricanes_Maps.pdf inform this discussion?

 

[geem]

Yes, in Grenada or Trinidad your options are reduced, so your plan will be a bit different, to leave earlier and probably to go to the ABCs or heave to somewhere suitably located and come back after a few days when it’s over.

Christ Parker has his clients often sail out of the northern Caribbean islands, SW. They heave to, then sail back. It won't always work for all hurricane tracks, but is an option

 

[franksingleton]

Christ Parker has his clients often sail out of the northern Caribbean islands, SW. They heave to, then sail back. It won't always work for all hurricane tracks, but is an option

Given the well documented history of hurricane tracks as my #46, that seems pretty obvious in that area tracks are, virtually, invariably a little north of west. An occasional one may be due west for a while. The uncertainty in prediction usually concerns when the start to turn NW, then N and NE.
My direct sailing experience in the area is 9 or 10 charters, obviously not in or near the hurricane season so I have never had to make the kind of decisions faced by you lot.

 

[BobnLesley]

Yes, in Grenada or Trinidad your options are reduced, so your plan will be a bit different, to leave earlier and probably to go to the ABCs or heave to somewhere suitably located and come back after a few days when it’s over.

We sailed to Curacao ahead of Irma; an easy decision, we'd have been going a month or so later anyway; but given the advanced predictions - it was forecast to be a monster from about a week before - I reckon you'd have had to a brave man to have gone to sea and road Irma out hove-to; indeed any named storm - the boat's only a bit of plastic..

 

[Zing]

We sailed to Curacao ahead of Irma; an easy decision, we'd have been going a month or so later anyway; but given the advanced predictions - it was forecast to be a monster from about a week before - I reckon you'd have had to a brave man to have sailed out and road Irma out hove-to; indeed any named storm - the boats only a bit of plastic..

It’s all about how far distant and where you go in relation to the predicted track and the storm size. There’s no single answer.

 

[Bajansailor]

I think getting hurricane insurance now compared to then is very different. There are far fewer insurers in the marine insurance market and few will give named storm cover. If you do get cover, it is at a huge premium.

The Insurers in the Caribbean are perhaps a bit more realistic than Insurers in Europe about hurricanes - these folk will usually offer cover during named storms, with a requirement that the vessel is in a safe port of refuge (or ashore).
Port St Charles and Port Ferdinand marinas in Barbados both qualify in this respect, and if a hurricane threatens us, they are obliged to offer shelter to as many boats as request it.
I think that @john_morris_uk contacted these folk in the link below about coverage for his vessel over the summer after he received very expensive quotes from Insurers in Britain.
CG United - CG United Insurance