Do we now need an electric boat forum???

[flaming]

Not for a very long time we won't.

You're looking at it thru your Rose Tinted EV windscreen.

To be honest this whole topic, especially where it relates to diesel in boats is more about politics and economic realities than it is about preferences or practicalities.

Ironically of course if (almost) all of the world's cars transition away from fossil fuels over the next 15 years or so, there would then be easily enough fuel left in reserves to enable boats to carry on using it in abandon until someone invents a warp drive or something.

There are only 2 things that will stop that from happening, which are it becoming politically unacceptable to burn fossil fuels in rich men's toys, and it becoming economically unattractive to extract, refine, store and distribute the fuel. I'd say it was a close race as to which will happen first.

 

[kashurst]

Not for a very long time we won't.

You're looking at it thru your Rose Tinted EV windscreen.

see middle of page 3 : www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-oil.pdf

Based on proven reserves, and current worldwide production rates there is enough for 53 years. Sorry no rose tinted glasses, just basic arithmetic.

Fortunately the arrival of wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, trucks and buses, IF widely adopted, will mean oil will be available for longer.
If EVs and renewable energy sources are not widely adopted then the oil reserves will be consumed in about 50 years give or take.

 

[Bouba]

Most supply chains don’t have a lot of slack in them....a couple of days interruption and they cease to be...as fossil fuels are slowly reducing and as momentum picks up...the entire supply chain will cut back...from repair technicians to tanker drivers....till eventually companies will pull out or go bust. Any industry that relies on slim margins on vast volumes is in trouble when volume is reduced.
The government may step in for essential services....military, air and sea transport etc. but supply will simply dry up

 

[Lodestone]

To be honest this whole topic, especially where it relates to diesel in boats is more about politics and economic realities than it is about preferences or practicalities.

Ironically of course if (almost) all of the world's cars transition away from fossil fuels over the next 15 years or so, there would then be easily enough fuel left in reserves to enable boats to carry on using it in abandon until someone invents a warp drive or something.

There are only 2 things that will stop that from happening, which are it becoming politically unacceptable to burn fossil fuels in rich men's toys, and it becoming economically unattractive to extract, refine, store and distribute the fuel. I'd say it was a close race as to which will happen first.

The economic and political reality is that stopping hydrocarbon exploration, currently, is bonkers.
We drill wells for far more than just fuel. We interdict this activity - without providing a very very long list of viable alternatives, not magical thinking IF's and WHEN's - at our societal peril.

Most supply chains don’t have a lot of slack in them....a couple of days interruption and they cease to be...as fossil fuels are slowly reducing and as momentum picks up...the entire supply chain will cut back...from repair technicians to tanker drivers....till eventually companies will pull out or go bust. Any industry that relies on slim margins on vast volumes is in trouble when volume is reduced.
The government may step in for essential services....military, air and sea transport etc. but supply will simply dry up

Global military operations, account for 5.5% of global CO2 emissions, and that's before you look at their whole supporting supply chain. The US military emits more than individual countries like Portugal or Denmark. Drying up isn't going to happen anytime soon. On the other hand politicians are quite happy to put into motion Christmas for us turkeys.

I'm all ears for alternatives but you need your liferafts in place before you knock out the seacocks.

 

[KevinV]

Not really.

In November this year, rape seed oil cost around 962 euros/metric ton.
i.e. about 0.88 euros per litre.
Diesel was about 0.71 euros per litre (and of course a few months back was considerably more expensive).

Both are before tax costs of course.

When I filled up my Citroen CX on rape seed in the 1990's, its retail price was about 10% less than that of diesel. But of course that is largely down to less fuel tax on bio fuel.

So supplying rape seed to run our diesel engines on is not a problem.

We will just starve a few more people than we are currently starving in Africa instead of growing stuff for them to eat.
(starvation is of course because of politics, and is not an ecological problem).

That'll be rapeseed oil produced by subsidised tractors running on red diesel? I'm not saying it isn't a viable alternative fuel - it is - just not very cost-effective if you have to grow more rapeseed to run the tractors that farm the rapeseed, etc.

(and, as you rightly point out, the minor detail that it all takes land out of food production)

 

[Bouba]

The economic and political reality is that stopping hydrocarbon exploration, currently, is bonkers.
We drill wells for far more than just fuel. We interdict this activity - without providing a very very long list of viable alternatives, not magical thinking IF's and WHEN's - at our societal peril.

Global military operations, account for 5.5% of global CO2 emissions, and that's before you look at their whole supporting supply chain. The US military emits more than individual countries like Portugal or Denmark. Drying up isn't going to happen anytime soon. On the other hand politicians are quite happy to put into motion Christmas for us turkeys.

I'm all ears for alternatives but you need your liferafts in place before you knock out the seacocks.

Most political realities consist of picking the low hanging fruit....as the electrification of road transport picks up a pace....they won’t care if the commercial supply of fuel shrinks

 

[westernman]

That'll be rapeseed oil produced by subsidised tractors running on red diesel? I'm not saying it isn't a viable alternative fuel - it is - just not very cost-effective if you have to grow more rapeseed to run the tractors that farm the rapeseed, etc.

(and, as you rightly point out, the minor detail that it all takes land out of food production)

The price I gave is the selling price. At that price it is viable as an alternative fuel.

Those tractors would be running on rape seed oil as well - as it is probably cheaper to use the locally produced fuel rather than transport red diesel to the farm.

It is cost effective enough.

Today, diesel at the refinery is marginally cheaper. But not by enough to make other options non-viable.

If there was no fuel duty on rape seed oil, just VAT at the standard rate, then rape seed oil would be substantially cheaper than diesel at the pump.

EVs don't pay fuel duty on electricity either.

Aircraft will run on something similar in the future - except it has a fancy name - Sustainable Aviation Fuel. It will be made from oil from seeds such as rape seed and corn. And some other green washing recycled stuff.

So IMHO it is cost effective enough. And can easily be made very attractive to consumers by tinkering with the fuel duty rate.

 

[Lodestone]

Most political realities consist of picking the low hanging fruit....as the electrification of road transport picks up a pace....they won’t care if the commercial supply of fuel shrinks

Yes they will care if this happens - where do you think they buy their fuel from. The cost of the fuel they use will go through the roof. Then you will care because they'll tax you - and that's on top of all the other new taxes they will have to invent to balance the books in the post-oil nirvana.

Everybody seems to think that 'just stopping oil' is simple and "oh well it'll come to an end" - it's deeply deeply complex. We've all had a recent lesson as to what happens when you interfere with hydrocarbon supply and this was for fertiliser and it had a knock on effect in global commodity markets. We're knocking everything off balance - and at a pace - for blinkered politics yet have nothing to offer as alternatives in the short to medium term. Everybody seems to either be blinkered or queuing up for this. It really does beggar belief.

 

[Ribtecer]

see middle of page 3 : www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-oil.pdf

Based on proven reserves, and current worldwide production rates there is enough for 53 years. Sorry no rose tinted glasses, just basic arithmetic.

Fortunately the arrival of wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, trucks and buses, IF widely adopted, will mean oil will be available for longer.
If EVs and renewable energy sources are not widely adopted then the oil reserves will be consumed in about 50 years give or take.

How can you use basic arithmetic to estimate how much they haven't found yet.

Of course it's Rose Tinited Windscreens. It's nature, which can't be worked out on a calculator.

 

[kashurst]

How can you use basic arithmetic to estimate how much they haven't found yet.

Of course it's Rose Tinited Windscreens. It's nature, which can't be worked out on a calculator.

So lets assume the oil companies manage to find say 50% more oil buried somewhere. That takes us to 75 years.
Then what will you do?
hope? pray?

Fortunately the oil companies are expecting demand to start falling off as we invest in more EVs and renewables.

 

[Lodestone]

So lets assume the oil companies manage to find say 50% more oil buried somewhere. That takes us to 75 years.
Then what will you do?
hope? pray?

75 years is a reasonable time to find alternatives, to bet the world's production of most 20th C benefits on 5-10 years is stupid

Do we have 75 years? Best get our skates on inventing solutions rather than cutting our noses off to spite our faces.

 

[kashurst]

75 years is a reasonable time to find alternatives, to bet the world's production of most 20th C benefits on 5-10 years is stupid

Do we have 75 years? Best get our skates on inventing solutions rather than cutting our noses off to spite our faces.

75 years? maybe maybe not. The chances of the oil companies finding 50% more oil than what is already known seems improbable.
So yes use alternatives which is exactly what is happening and oil will last a long time - as long as most people use the alternatives.

 

[Ribtecer]

So lets assume the oil companies manage to find say 50% more oil buried somewhere. That takes us to 75 years.
Then what will you do?
hope? pray?

Fortunately the oil companies are expecting demand to start falling off as we invest in more EVs and renewables.

You seem to take the intellectual high ground (and that normally comes with EV owners), which I find rich but never the less, how can you be so sure when by your own admission, its all based on assumptions?

 

[kashurst]

You seem to take the intellectual high ground (and that normally comes with EV owners), which I find rich but never the less, how can you be so sure when by your own admission, its all based on assumptions?

It would be unwise to plan a future on what you don't know. That is just being pragmatic. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. We may discover more we may not.
The oil reserves are considered proven by the oil company's geologists. They are not an assumption. If you don't like the answer go and look yourself.

What intellectual high ground? digging out some real evaluated information and reading it. It's not difficult is it????

 

[Lodestone]

75 years? maybe maybe not. The chances of the oil companies finding 50% more oil than what is already known seems improbable.
So yes use alternatives which is exactly what is happening and oil will last a long time - as long as most people use the alternatives.

in a vast majority of cases there are as yet no alternatives

Going back to the EV/eBoat discussion all we have are some interesting creations which just don't work for the vast majority of people. Those are not solutions, they are illusions.

 

[Bouba]

in a vast majority of cases there are as yet no alternatives

Going back to the EV/eBoat discussion all we have are some interesting creations which just don't work for the vast majority of people. Those are not solutions, they are illusions.

It’s early days for electric boat development.....in the car world, it was only the input from Elon Musk that started the electric car revolution...without him, the electric car would be at the same stage as electric boats are now....impractical, short range, expensive. It’s unlikely that some wealthy entrepreneurial genius is going to put his fortune into boat building...so boating can only piggyback off automobile advancements. And electric large trucks are even further behind than cars....and without successful, inexpensive big truck electric drivetrains....we won’t get effective big electric boats

 

[westernman]

It’s early days for electric boat development.....in the car world, it was only the input from Elon Musk that started the electric car revolution...without him, the electric car would be at the same stage as electric boats are now....impractical, short range, expensive. It’s unlikely that some wealthy entrepreneurial genius is going to put his fortune into boat building...so boating can only piggyback off automobile advancements. And electric large trucks are even further behind than cars....and without successful, inexpensive big truck electric drivetrains....we won’t get effective big electric boats

You will be seeing more of these soon:-

Electric BYD ETH8 19 Tonne Truck Designed For Logistics And Waste Collection At The Hannover IAA Transportation Motor Show. Editorial Photo - Image of freight, electrical: 262634951

19 ton electric truck
Common place in China.

 

[dunedin]

in a vast majority of cases there are as yet no alternatives

Going back to the EV/eBoat discussion all we have are some interesting creations which just don't work for the vast majority of people. Those are not solutions, they are illusions.

I guess the other way of looking at this might be, taking a long term view, some of the things we do today may need to change radically or will not be acceptable (permitted) in future.
Pushing 20+ tons of GRP along at 30 knots may be deemed socially unacceptable? Displacement speed cruising may be more viable?

 

[Ribtecer]

It would be unwise to plan a future on what you don't know. That is just being pragmatic. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. We may discover more we may not.

Nobody would ever achieve anything with an attitude like that.

England was built on the backs of people that thought the exact opposite of that sort of clap trap.

What a mess we are in, whilst the East rub their hands with qlee.

 

[kashurst]

in a vast majority of cases there are as yet no alternatives

Going back to the EV/eBoat discussion all we have are some interesting creations which just don't work for the vast majority of people. Those are not solutions, they are illusions.

so far we have electric/battery:
bikes, scooters, motorbikes, cars, vans, buses, 40 ton trucks,
small boats, jet skis, hydroplaning 30 foot speed boats
helicopters, small short range planes
earth moving machinery, mining machines, 400 ton mining trucks
forklift trucks, go carts, small tractors - big ones on the way
Norway has a fleet of battery powered car ferries, Sweden has an electric ship moving gravel
Battery energy density has gone from 150 Wh/kg to over 500 Wh/kg

these all work for the majority of people if they so choose

power generation:
450 feet high wind turbines, solar panels with 30% efficiency, nuclear powerstations, tidal systems
UK Power generation has averaged 65% non fossil fuel power this year.
long wave length infra red heaters, reverse cycle air conditioners for cooling AND very good heating. heatpumps - in a well insulated house
massive heatpump systems for hospitals, shopping centres, factories and communities
200mph electric trains
huge mines now run on electricity alone

this all works for industry and domestic purposes

we don't have 20 ton fast electric planing boats - and probably never will. The vast majority of people have never even been on one, let alone owned one.