Death knell of Sea Schools?

[jac]

"Current panic and hysterical reaction"?
What planet are you living on?
How many deaths have there been, both here & worldwide & you think its "panic & hysteria"?
Are you for real?

Yup.

There is increasing evidence that the mortality rate is much, much lower than originally predicted - i saw some claims today that it could be 0.1%. - Obviously time will tell
Of those - around 90% are those with underlying medical conditions or the elderly.
SO our actions MAY give maybe 100,000 - 150,000 people maybe an extra year of life.

Ironically - it looks as if the lockdown wasn't necessary to achieve this - The peak deaths by date of death was April 8 - suggesting that peak of infection was 14 - 21 days before that. At the latest, that suggests peak infection on the day that the lockdown was announced, i.e. earlier measures were working. Also look at the experience of Sweden.

And the cost?
Oncology doctors have predicted this could cost 10's of thousands of cancer deaths - approximately 2300 cases not being diagnosed per week. These will be spread amongst all ages, not focused on the elderly
I would expect similar vast numbers of deaths from other causes - We have already seen the ONS figures for excess deaths being much higher, even if you exclude covid related deaths.
Domestic violence calls doubled
The vast majority of vulnerable children in danger as they are not in school and number of children referred to childrens services halved
Childrens education disrupted
great mental health problems leading to additional murder and suicide.
And lets not forget the financial cost. Paying the interest on this huge sum borrowed will take from money that could be spent more productively on other things in future.

Then lets look at some of the reaction from the police and the lockdown stasi with people, even nurses being criticised for going to work - health workers being spat at for being virus spreaders or asked to leave their rented accommodation.

So in summary -

Are their deaths - yes - loads.
But many of them are just bringing the date of death forward by a few months and the actions to save maybe 100 to 200,000 are causing significant extra deaths. No one is asking why dying of Covid is unacceptable but dying of cancer is ok.
Then add in the ridiculous behaviour of SOME members of the general public and i think panic and hysteria are appropriate

 

[Sharky34]

You cant learn to sail without going sailing though......

Not sure you can smell the coffee on Utube.

 

[Sharky34]

About the same as in a bad flu season.
But we don't destroy the economy every winter.

Absolute rubbish.

 

[Sharky34]

Yup.

There is increasing evidence that the mortality rate is much, much lower than originally predicted - i saw some claims today that it could be 0.1%. - Obviously time will tell
Of those - around 90% are those with underlying medical conditions or the elderly.
SO our actions MAY give maybe 100,000 - 150,000 people maybe an extra year of life.

Ironically - it looks as if the lockdown wasn't necessary to achieve this - The peak deaths by date of death was April 8 - suggesting that peak of infection was 14 - 21 days before that. At the latest, that suggests peak infection on the day that the lockdown was announced, i.e. earlier measures were working. Also look at the experience of Sweden.

And the cost?
Oncology doctors have predicted this could cost 10's of thousands of cancer deaths - approximately 2300 cases not being diagnosed per week. These will be spread amongst all ages, not focused on the elderly
I would expect similar vast numbers of deaths from other causes - We have already seen the ONS figures for excess deaths being much higher, even if you exclude covid related deaths.
Domestic violence calls doubled
The vast majority of vulnerable children in danger as they are not in school and number of children referred to childrens services halved
Childrens education disrupted
great mental health problems leading to additional murder and suicide.
And lets not forget the financial cost. Paying the interest on this huge sum borrowed will take from money that could be spent more productively on other things in future.

Then lets look at some of the reaction from the police and the lockdown stasi with people, even nurses being criticised for going to work - health workers being spat at for being virus spreaders or asked to leave their rented accommodation.

So in summary -

Are their deaths - yes - loads.
But many of them are just bringing the date of death forward by a few months and the actions to save maybe 100 to 200,000 are causing significant extra deaths. No one is asking why dying of Covid is unacceptable but dying of cancer is ok.
Then add in the ridiculous behaviour of SOME members of the general public and i think panic and hysteria are appropriate

Completely disagree with you, since it is also the view of the Government, NHS frontline & Care Staff, the latter actually dealing with these panic & hysterical deaths.

 

[Ningaloo]

Absolute rubbish.

The link below suggests 17k for flu.

Obviously we are not near the end of this yet but the consequential deaths incurred from the lockdown are likely to match or exceed CV19 deaths.

I'm not suggesting that we should not be doing as anything, just that the cost of the lockdown (as opposed to increased testing and tracing) is unsustainable.

How does the coronavirus death rate compare with flu and how long will the outbreak last?

 

[Sharky34]

The link below suggests 17k for flu.

Obviously we are not near the end of this yet but the consequential deaths incurred from the lockdown are likely to match or exceed CV19 deaths.

I'm not suggesting that we should not be doing as anything, just that the cost of the lockdown (as opposed to increased testing and tracing) is unsustainable.

How does the coronavirus death rate compare with flu and how long will the outbreak last?

How much do you think it costs, both financial & emotional, if someone dies before they need?
Who bloody cares if some factory produces a widget that no-one really needs, life is about people, not their ability to buy trivia.

 

[AntarcticPilot]

Whatever our views, most authorities seem to think that some form of social distancing will have to be in place until there is an effective vaccine. That's very unlikely to be before 2021; developing, producing and testing a vaccine takes that long. They've already jumped some steps in the process (animal testing), but the bugbear is making sure the vaccine is effective. That means waiting until a naive test cohort have been exposed to the virus and demonstrated immunity, which takes time. All this assumes that an effective vaccine is possible - it may not be. Note that just a few days ago the WHO stated categorically that there was no evidence that having had the virus conferred immunity. That doesn't mean it doesn't; it means that we don't know that it does. If no vaccine is possible - a small possibility, but still a possibility - then we'll have to wait until an effective drug is developed so that infections can be cured rapidly. That's a much more difficult job than creating a vaccine, despite Trump's remarks about disinfectant!

By the way, one statistic that has been published shows that the current overall death rate has doubled over the seasonal average. It's on the BBC news web-site somewhere.

 

[Hacker]

If I recall correctly; in the UK we have an average of around 18k flu deaths per annum. The lowest in recent years was 7k, I think, and the highest was 28k when the flu vaccine failed in 2014/15. The ‘all cause‘ ave for the UK is around 2000 per day.

 

[Lucky Duck]

How much do you think it costs, both financial & emotional, if someone dies before they need?
Who bloody cares if some factory produces a widget that no-one really needs, life is about people, not their ability to buy trivia.

They might care if it makes spare parts for, say, an ambulance, a doctor's car or indeed a petrol pump, etc.

 

[Old Harry]

Are people really going to want to spend a week, in close proximety to a load of strangers, doing a practical yachting course when all this is over?

Perhaps folk will learn as many did "in my day" & sail with chums , then buy a small yacht ( sub 20ft ) then progress as one gains experience

 

[Ningaloo]

I think the point is being missed that people are dying of non CV19 causes BECAUSE of the lockdown.

Cancer is a major killer of younger people. Cancer referrals and treatment have been significantly reduced during lockdown. Many other deaths will occur caused by lockdown...

It is facile to believe that government policies do not put a price on a human life and will, a some stage have to restart the economy, accepting that this will cause additional CV19 deaths.

It didn't have to be like this... We seemed to give up on testing and tracing just as it was needed.

Hang goodness we do seem to be reporting lower deaths today an yesterday. I think we can all agree this is an encouraging sign.

Back to the OP and I do hope to be sailing again soon and will be looking for crew. No experience needed for day or weekend sails, some basic experience desirable for longer trips. I enjoy passing on skills to at least day skipper level...

 

[Sharky34]

They might care if it makes spare parts for, say, an ambulance, a doctor's car or indeed a petrol pump, etc.

Well, we'd better hope that the German Car Industry recovers quickly then.

 

[Sharky34]

Perhaps folk will learn as many did "in my day" & sail with chums , then buy a small yacht ( sub 20ft ) then progress as one gains experience

That might satisfy the "in my day" sailors, but in my experience the 'snowflake' generation expect to learn how to sail, much like they would become acquainted with a new app on their phone. They want instant gratification.

 

[Sharky34]

I think the point is being missed that people are dying of non CV19 causes BECAUSE of the lockdown.

Cancer is a major killer of younger people. Cancer referrals and treatment have been significantly reduced during lockdown. Many other deaths will occur caused by lockdown...

It is facile to believe that government policies do not put a price on a human life and will, a some stage have to restart the economy, accepting that this will cause additional CV19 deaths.

It didn't have to be like this... We seemed to give up on testing and tracing just as it was needed.

Hang goodness we do seem to be reporting lower deaths today an yesterday. I think we can all agree this is an encouraging sign.

Back to the OP and I do hope to be sailing again soon and will be looking for crew. No experience needed for day or weekend sails, some basic experience desirable for longer trips. I enjoy passing on skills to at least day skipper level...

The lowering of reported deaths was explained on the daily briefing.
They are figures compiled from the weekend, when reporting is not up to date & figures later will reflect this defacit.
Ref crew, hope you have a big boat, a 2m+ cockpit.

 

[Old Harry]

That might satisfy the "in my day" sailors, but in my experience the 'snowflake' generation expect to learn how to sail, much like they would become acquainted with a new app on their phone. They want instant gratification.

No first time x channel, with just a log-compass & depth sounder then

 

[Sharky34]

No first time x channel, with just a log-compass & depth sounder then

I think you can usually see/smell France well before you need a depth sounder.
PS, did Rommel spot you?

 

[PhillM]

I think ''one man boat RTC'' will be more flexible at surviving the crisis, assuming debt is managed. A few of the schools that I am aquainted with in the Scottish scene are run by folks who have very low overheads. I am not suggesting this is normal but I do wonder if many of the smaller schools will be more robust and can restart relatively easily. Of course the whole social distancing thing is the big spanner in the works if that remains in place for a long time.

Some will make it and some won’t, but while the business may fail the people will still be there afterwards. Social distancing will pass and when it does the businesses that failed will come back into the market or new ones will be setup.

 

[FlyingGoose]

That might satisfy the "in my day" sailors, but in my experience the 'snowflake' generation expect to learn how to sail, much like they would become acquainted with a new app on their phone. They want instant gratification.

Do you have proof , plenty of sea cadets around my Coast, the local Loch has sailing schools for all the youngsters always busy before lock down , plenty of young adult's following it up , was a dinghy instructor in my early 20.s all my friends went to Outdoor Education courses, who were all young adults at the time ,
so were are you basing the younger generation as snowflakes and who want the 50 ft boat now
Please do you have evidence of this .or is your belly rumbling again, and anyone over 65 is the Oracle of Knowledge of the younger Generation as you tap away on your modern device on a forum in Hyper space.
It seems that it is 40 to 65 middle aged men who want the boat or motor bike or fast car and the young blonde to satisfy their manliness.
Sharky for the love of the wee man Have I found you out

 

[pvb]

Some will make it and some won’t, but while the business may fail the people will still be there afterwards. Social distancing will pass and when it does the businesses that failed will come back into the market or new ones will be setup.

I feel sorry for the sad employees of these small, poorly-funded sailing schools, of which there are many. Their lives will never be the same again.

 

[LONG_KEELER]

For better or worse, the virus has taken attention away from the obesity epidemic, type 2 diabetes epidemic , and hypertension epidemic plus many Cancers. All largely avoidable .

I wonder what the odds of expiring are from CV compared to the above.

There is also strong science suggesting that the industrialisation of farm animals in the West is a major factor of infections that can jump from animals to humans. Up until now, the world has never the effect of this. You have to wonder that poultry and pigs are probably the most heavily crowded.