Death knell of Sea Schools?

[Sharky34]

If you don't know you would be well advised to find out. Ignorance is only a little better than stupidity.

Meaningless.

 

[laika]

Same questions to Warsash and Hamble School of Yachting currently awaiting a reply but I suspect it'll be the same.

As expected, previously non-online courses not currently being re-engineered to be partially online, simply on hold for the time being

I don't think anyone has yet noted that there will be an element of 'pent-up demand' for courses and the like once restrictions are lifted.

...particularly for courses which are applicable to commercial qualification (e.g. are part of a master's ticket). I'm guessing Warsash for example will be booked solid from when they re-start.

 

[jac]

Sharky the 177,000 confirmed cases though are only those where test has been done. Until very recently few have been eligible for tests so the otherwise healthy person with a nasty cough will sit at home and wait it out but not be diagnosed. So whilst your numerator is correct, the denominator is much too small as it ignores all those with mild cases who haven't gone for tests. The UK results though reflect the fact that until recently the only people that were guaranteed to get a test were those in hospital where the doctors suspected Covid so look really bad just due to an biassed sample being used

Some estimates originally put the death rate at 1 per thousand cases or 0.1 % which looks optimistic - A Los Angeles study suggested 0.18, helsink 0.19% Boston 0.31% , Gangelt in Germany 0.37% , Santa Clara 0.12% etc. We'll probably end up a figure somewhere in that range but of course a lot depends on the ability of the NHS to cope - if it can;t death rates will climb.

 

[Uricanejack]

I've just spent the past two weeks (on and off) working through my RYA Day Skipper theory course with a local company (Splash Sea School) that offer the course completely online. Fantastic way to learn - especially during these troubling times. I've come away with my RYA Day Skipper Theory Qualification but now desperate to get the practical booked. It sounds like it could be some time before that happens which would be a great shame.

Good for you, now you are well prepared for when the opportunity returns. Things appear to be getting a little better here with restrictions easing a bit. Hopefully it might not be to long.

 

[Sharky34]

Sharky the 177,000 confirmed cases though are only those where test has been done. Until very recently few have been eligible for tests so the otherwise healthy person with a nasty cough will sit at home and wait it out but not be diagnosed. So whilst your numerator is correct, the denominator is much too small as it ignores all those with mild cases who haven't gone for tests. The UK results though reflect the fact that until recently the only people that were guaranteed to get a test were those in hospital where the doctors suspected Covid so look really bad just due to an biassed sample being used

Some estimates originally put the death rate at 1 per thousand cases or 0.1 % which looks optimistic - A Los Angeles study suggested 0.18, helsink 0.19% Boston 0.31% , Gangelt in Germany 0.37% , Santa Clara 0.12% etc. We'll probably end up a figure somewhere in that range but of course a lot depends on the ability of the NHS to cope - if it can;t death rates will climb.

Not all the deaths are being associated with the virus, even if that was the cause.
An expert on R4 suggested that the true figure, was the number of 'excess' deaths when compared to the 'norm'.
As can be seen in the below example, the percentage is high.

• "The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.
• Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13."

 

[NotBirdseye]

In terms of excess mortality the UK is doing shockingly bad... almost as bad as America. There has definitely been a move away from the scientists to get away form the R rate at the moment to Excess Mortality. Definitely seems like a more reliable number to use right now.

What will be interesting is if we see fewer deaths in the next five to ten years...

 

[JumbleDuck]

What will be interesting is if we see fewer deaths in the next five to ten years...

Or even the next few months. Research from BUPA and the LSE showed that the median life expectancy for someone entering a care home was 462 days, so a significant proportion of those who have died in care would have died over the next few months anyway. Which is not to dismiss the sadness of their deaths, of course.

 

[Hacker]

I once analysed all admissions to our hospital for those over 70 against their date of death. The median was 346 days following their index admission. So CV will lead to bringing some deaths forward but that will likely be followed by a drop Before it returns to expected levels.

 

[Uricanejack]

I was wondering what the median age of the forum is? Well up there I presume. Though most of us are still active and not in care homes.
I expect quite a few of us have compromised heath or immunity for numerous reasons, which have not yet seriously impacted our quality of life. Which still leave us more vulnerable than average.
The death toll here has been predominantly involving residents of care homes. Even so it has effected and hit younger people
much harder than the flue. Not all deaths would have occurred anyway. Most perhaps, which is why this lockdown stuff has been implemented. Fortunately it was implemented early here, so the toll is low.
South of the border the toll is much higher. Not just isolated to care homes, although care homes have hit particularly hard.
Our east coast it has been much worse, later lock down and a lot of people who, traveled at spring break.

Will sailing or sailing course make a difference, not much, it doesn’t take much, The problem is travel and contact, and extends to hundreds of leisure activities. It only takes 1 non compliance to start a hot spot. The sooner it’s under control the sooner we can get back to enjoying some of our activities.
It is frustrating not being able to go sailing as I had planned. Even though I believe my crew and I could self isolate quite easily while sailing. It upsets other people and anywhere I planed to go is closed.

I will go back to sailing when the restrictions are lifted, I would go back to a sailing school, when the restrictions are lifted.
if it still exists, I may even take up an offer to re certify as an instructor.

 

[gilesashton]

Good for you, now you are well prepared for when the opportunity returns. Things appear to be getting a little better here with restrictions easing a bit. Hopefully it might not be to long.

Thank you Uricanejock for your response. It was nice to hear someone respond back with something positive rather than lots of the negative rhetoric that seems to have plagued this thread. It's great to be able to learn some sort of theory with a view to being able to do something positive once this is all over. Might even progress to the Yachtmaster course whilst lockdown is still happening!!

 

[jac]

Not all the deaths are being associated with the virus, even if that was the cause.
An expert on R4 suggested that the true figure, was the number of 'excess' deaths when compared to the 'norm'.
As can be seen in the below example, the percentage is high.

• "The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.
• Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13."

But not all those deaths will be of someone who died WITH coronoavirus. For example, oncology doctors have warned of additional deaths through missed cancer appointments, The number of heart and stroke patients attending hospital has plummeted - many of those not attending may well die. So i agree that they have been caused indirectly BY coronoavirus - this is one of the categories that Professor Vallins has mentioned repeatedly - those who miss out on a treatment. In this case though it's not coronavirus per se, that has killed them, but a disproportionate response to the fear of it, rather than a balancing of the risks of dieing from coronavirus than dieing from a stroke, heart attack, cancer etc.

 

[capnsensible]

 

[Sharky34]

But not all those deaths will be of someone who died WITH coronoavirus. For example, oncology doctors have warned of additional deaths through missed cancer appointments, The number of heart and stroke patients attending hospital has plummeted - many of those not attending may well die. So i agree that they have been caused indirectly BY coronoavirus - this is one of the categories that Professor Vallins has mentioned repeatedly - those who miss out on a treatment. In this case though it's not coronavirus per se, that has killed them, but a disproportionate response to the fear of it, rather than a balancing of the risks of dieing from coronavirus than dieing from a stroke, heart attack, cancer etc.

Balanced by deaths, that are down to covid, but not actually put onto death certificate, particularly when this can now be done over the phone.
Experts have stated that excess deaths give a truer picture.
EU says Britain is NOT seeing a downward trend in coronavirus outbreak

 

[NotBirdseye]

I was wondering what the median age of the forum is? Well up there I presume. Though most of us are still active and not in care homes.
[/QUOTE/

Balanced by deaths, that are down to covid, but not actually put onto death certificate, particularly when this can now be done over the phone.
Experts have stated that excess deaths give a truer picture.
EU says Britain is NOT seeing a downward trend in coronavirus outbreak

Well fu...

 

[gilesashton]

This is a great news piece from Sky News. Help understand how the stats can be used to suit the agenda.

 

[NotBirdseye]

Yeah comparing the UK to America is a bad idea. We should compare say California or Washington. A better comparison would be America to the EU as a whole. Not sure that comparing per 100m is that useful.

Tis a good article.

 

[doug748]

This is a great news piece from Sky News. Help understand how the stats can be used to suit the agenda.

A very good piece. We have a separate Virus Forum, go and check it out, but whatever you do don't post it in there at this stage.
It's a little bit early in your career to get branded as a Brexit Fascist Apologist :- )

Welcome, by the way.

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