Correlation between boatbuilding and politicians

[MapisM]

Q. Why was this thread started?
A. Search me.

I've been around here for more years than you, and yet your post count is more than double of mine.
I wouldn't raise any objections if you should say that yours are all clever and mine are all stupid, but from a strictly statistical viewpoint it's fair to say that you are much more interested in being searched than myself, I reckon.

 

[KevinV]

I guess the season for Good Will to All is over then

 

[benjenbav]

A sensible post .^ ( credit due where’s it due ) on the back of your post I will respond to the criticism from my post on this thread ….if I May guys .
Sunseeker laying off staff

So in relation to the prompt the above thread ^ MapishM used my response re “ cardboard answers “ to why S/Skr have shrunk the workforce recently . It’s not a cyclical seasonal call it what you will historic pattern this time.

The cardboard answers is a figure of speech . Apologies if a few took it literally.

It’s this assume £5 m - £15 M + orders for there boats each !
T/o circa £400 M , number of boats del 150 ish .

Then a Gov increases Capitol gains tax from a low figure to a high .
Places a new inheritance tax on land owners .

So a guy who sells his business for sake of example for £50 M in Rishi world has 10 % entrepreneurs relief and a very basic CGT on the balance .Leaving plenty to spurge on a boat .

Under Starmers regime the extra difference wipes out any £5-15 M the “ plenty “of excess cash would have used to become another S/Skr customer .
So as I said in my post on the other thread he declines and finds happiness else where , but not buying a boat …this time.

So with 150 punters last yr how many do you think S/Skr have lost due to tge increase of CGT ?Well it’s ain’t zero .

Even if it’s only a low number say 5 that’s 5 x the £5-15 M in lost cash , £ 25-75 M .

Then why do the cardboard characters on here assume land owners don’t boat ?
Not every land owner but they are not barred from boating ….we have farmers on here you know .
So a guy with a 1000 acres of arable farm typically worth £10 k / acre , so 10M value or more if trendy Cotswold ( Clarkson et al )
Is staring down the barrel of a huge future tax bill ….wondering how to deal with it , so his kids will be ok - etc etc .He didn’t place an order at U.K. boat building PLC last Sept while at SIBS either . Would have done for a nice 50 ftr Med bound under Rishi .

Ok that’s 3 min for S/Skr so now it 8 lost punters = U.K. PLC boatbuilders shedding staff .

They rely disproportionately on U.K. , Brit punters . Theses 8 are just two types who would have gone to SIBs to buy .
They haven’t now under Starmer .

Why folks can’t see this …..Blimmy .

I am not saying it killed or dead , it’s just tipped away slightly, doesn’t take many spending £5-15 M on a T/o of £400 M to tip it down .

Ordinarily a political change in Downing Street makes zero effect as there’s only minor swings in the boat building business levers and stuff evens out .Not sure like you why this Q was asked by MapishM??

But doubling or worse the CGT liability on guys selling up business , and a fresh tax on farms is a game changer in the number of folks willing to blow £5-15 M + on a plastic wasting asset ….for leisure .

The stat for number of vacancies not replaced is a record high …..thought to be the unintended consequence of the 2 % hike in employers NIC . I will let the brighter none carbord on here do the maths on that re unemployment.

The “ working man “ in Poole is going to suffer bcz the ones with “ broad shoulders “ once they bear these two extra tax hikes haven’t got anything left for a new Sunseeker …..Simples !

Might there not be the odd farming boater who thinks the farm’s going to have to go to pay the tax anyway; might as well realise its value today; head down to Poole and splurge the dosh on a wasting asset rather than HMRC getting their hands on it?

Maybe you’re right and the rich will feel that their wings have been clipped a bit, but this doesn’t explain why the big UK boatbuilders have been underwater for years.

Unless you’re saying that recently announced changes to UK taxes are the final nail in what is already a fairly well-built coffin?

 

[Poignard]

I've been around here for more years than you, and yet your post count is more than double of mine.
I wouldn't raise any objections if you should say that yours are all clever and mine are all stupid, but from a strictly statistical viewpoint it's fair to say that you are much more interested in being searched than myself, I reckon.

All I did was to wonder what motivated you to start this strange thread.

Was it your intention to entertain, to inform, to gather information, or just to have a pop at the present or previous government, or what?

We need to be told.

Anyway, it seems I've gone and upset you; and that wasn't my intention.

But never mind, I dare say you'll get over it.

Or maybe you won't.......

 

[Clash]

Might there not be the odd farming boater who thinks the farm’s going to have to go to pay the tax anyway; might as well realise its value today; head down to Poole and splurge the dosh on a wasting asset rather than HMRC getting their hands on it?

Maybe you’re right and the rich will feel that their wings have been clipped a bit, but this doesn’t explain why the big UK boatbuilders have been underwater for years.

Unless you’re saying that recently announced changes to UK taxes are the final nail in what is already a fairly well-built coffin?

I thought it was clear it was a thinly (actually see through) veiled attack on 'the gubment' or rather two of them taken from different angles. First one budget uncertainty, second one capital gains taxes. I'm sure he'll think of more whilst ignoring the fact that the industry has been failing for pretty much all the successive terms of the previous incumbents.

No skin in the game here, I'm not UKish.

 

[Portofino]

Might there not be the odd farming boater who thinks the farm’s going to have to go to pay the tax anyway; might as well realise its value today; head down to Poole and splurge the dosh on a wasting asset rather than HMRC getting their hands on it?

Maybe you’re right and the rich will feel that their wings have been clipped a bit, but this doesn’t explain why the big UK boatbuilders have been underwater for years.

Unless you’re saying that recently announced changes to UK taxes are the final nail in what is already a fairly well-built coffin?

I don’t think I said , or gave reasons for the chronic issues with U.K. boatbuilders .

Was replying to MC Anderson’s post about the recent S/Skr layoffs they normally go under the press radar this didn’t and got the local MP singing leading to the thread .

.Its now a shorterpipeline hence the lay offs bcz of the change in taxation regime by the Gov . The acute issue . Which for explanations given is different to the past seasonal boat building job losses and indeed various previous changes of gov .

Going a step further seeing as you are reading correctly Ben ….if the current Gov s economic policy feels like or indeed actually isn’t working re the classic socialist tax and spend , the spend gets out of control then they will back for nibble of more tax from those with “ broad shoulders “ This means less millions from Brits to spend @ S/Skr .

It’s pretty naive to think “ that’s it “……..so if you have a bit of brass , or can get hold of a bit of brass selling something that attracts CGT you might sit it out for now …..put the new £5 M S/Skr on ice for now .The difference in CGT potential on a multi £M business sale is the cost of new S/Skr ….but as said it only take 1/2 to a dozen of sales to be lost by this.Be interesting to see if the number of business transactions ( disposal / sale ) falls in 2025 , or the next 4/5 yrs compared to Rishi times . Folks hold on = no cash released no new U.K. boat £ M + order placed .

A elderly farmer friend of mine aged 86 has told his son aged 62 to put his body in the freezer and hopefully in 5 yrs time ( diff Gov this IHT on land reversed out ? ) thaw him out …..just jesting guys for the peeps who take every word literally.
I feel I need to make this distinction ^ ….unfortunately! But I know you will get the gist Ben .
Your “ odd farming boater “ example scenario …well he will has to stump up more CGT if he cashes in . Might not want to fill Starmers pocket …not exact politically aligned . They tend to be conservative types in my experience 1000 + acre men . Also don’t want to be the generation to loose the farm .



If £ are taken from those with “ broad shoulders “ by extra taxation , it’s hitting enough S/Skr profile buyers .

It will be interesting to see how many they deliver in 2025 and drill down into the value ….you know see a spreadsheet .

I bet it’s less units and even if there’s a few more at the top end it will be a lower T/o .

 

[Seastoke]

When do you all start back school.

 

[MapisM]

All I did was to wonder what motivated you to start this strange thread.
Was it your intention to entertain, to inform, to gather information, or just to have a pop at the present or previous government, or what?
We need to be told.

Well, I already answered your curiosity even before you asked, in the very first line of my post #40. What part of that is difficult to understand?
Or do you think I must have had other much more sophisticated reasons only because of the twisty plot that the thread developed into?
To which, just in case you didn't notice, I refrained to contribute in any manner!

Anyway, it seems I've gone and upset you; and that wasn't my intention.
But never mind, I dare say you'll get over it.

Fair enough ref. your first line above.
And ref. the second, no worries, I definitely will. No, wait. I already did!
Also because, frankly speaking, there's a limit to my interest in debates steering to flogging a dead horse...

 

[Clash]

No. Pianos are not bought by rich people.

For instance this nice one which is a bargain at $287,000.

Fazioli F308 Grand Piano

Or you could go for a cheap and cheerful Yamaha at only 203,000 euros.

Piano Yamaha - Piano à queue Yamaha CFX chez Pianos Daudé

To be fair, both of those are concert grand pianos of around 10 foot length. The piano would be the least of your expense after building a concert hall for it.

 

[Poignard]

Well, I already answered your curiosity even before you asked, in the very first line of my post #40. What part of that is difficult to understand?

Pretty much all of it.

I quote "Simple, because I was also unsure about your [Portofino] assumption that I quoted, and I was curious to check if I was alone on that."


If you don't like what Portofino says (and, to be honest, many's the time I haven't liked what he's said!) there must be an easier way of letting him know it than conducting a poll so awkward that you have to end up explaining what it's about to people you might otherwise expect to share your views on B----- and its disastrous consequences for our country.

 

[benjenbav]

I don’t think I said , or gave reasons for the chronic issues with U.K. boatbuilders .

Was replying to MC Anderson’s post about the recent S/Skr layoffs they normally go under the press radar this didn’t and got the local MP singing leading to the thread .

.Its now a shorterpipeline hence the lay offs bcz of the change in taxation regime by the Gov . The acute issue . Which for explanations given is different to the past seasonal boat building job losses and indeed various previous changes of gov .

Going a step further seeing as you are reading correctly Ben ….if the current Gov s economic policy feels like or indeed actually isn’t working re the classic socialist tax and spend , the spend gets out of control then they will back for nibble of more tax from those with “ broad shoulders “ This means less millions from Brits to spend @ S/Skr .

It’s pretty naive to think “ that’s it “……..so if you have a bit of brass , or can get hold of a bit of brass selling something that attracts CGT you might sit it out for now …..put the new £5 M S/Skr on ice for now .The difference in CGT potential on a multi £M business sale is the cost of new S/Skr ….but as said it only take 1/2 to a dozen of sales to be lost by this.Be interesting to see if the number of business transactions ( disposal / sale ) falls in 2025 , or the next 4/5 yrs compared to Rishi times . Folks hold on = no cash released no new U.K. boat £ M + order placed .

A elderly farmer friend of mine aged 86 has told his son aged 62 to put his body in the freezer and hopefully in 5 yrs time ( diff Gov this IHT on land reversed out ? ) thaw him out …..just jesting guys for the peeps who take every word literally.
I feel I need to make this distinction ^ ….unfortunately! But I know you will get the gist Ben .
Your “ odd farming boater “ example scenario …well he will has to stump up more CGT if he cashes in . Might not want to fill Starmers pocket …not exact politically aligned . They tend to be conservative types in my experience 1000 + acre men . Also don’t want to be the generation to loose the farm .



If £ are taken from those with “ broad shoulders “ by extra taxation , it’s hitting enough S/Skr profile buyers .

It will be interesting to see how many they deliver in 2025 and drill down into the value ….you know see a spreadsheet .

I bet it’s less units and even if there’s a few more at the top end it will be a lower T/o .

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens to uk boatbuilding’s order book over the next few years.

I fear that it will be a rather bleak picture and that the reasons behind it will be several.

 

[kashurst]

The kind of people who buy big Sunseekers etc are by definition already very wealthy, with a broad range of assets. They may well live in the UK but financially they are resilient to government changes and taxation changes. Anyone dropping a million or more on a brand new Sunseeker will be buying through an offshore company, not paying VAT and will almost certainly keep it somewhere warm outside of the UK. They are likely to be very astute financially and well advised. They won't be maxing out the credit card or taking a marine mortgage out to buy it. They may well borrow the money but it will be at a lower interest rate and have the potential to flip the currency the debt is originally denominated in to take advantage of currency changes to reduce the debt.
Some Farmers appear to be very rich with £10million plus farms, but farms dont make a lot of money or generate a lot of cash. Investments in land are not very liquid or flexible. So I doubt many/any UK farmers can actually buy and operate a £1million+ boat in reality.

There are millions of very wealthy people all over the world. A fair few in the UK. The latest UK gov changes to CGT won't especially bother some UK based wealthy people unless they need to sell something relatively soon. If the cash is not at hand and they want to buy a big toy the easiest thing to do is borrow against assets. Then later sell off stuff or receive income/dividend payments etc to pay off the debt in stages to suit the relevant tax charges or just pay the interest until they sell the boat. Sell the boat, give the bank the money back plus what ever they lost in depreciation. By which time their tax situation may well be different and more amenable to turning assets into cash. Meanwhile their invested assets will hopefully have grown in value more than the debt on the boat.

The UK brands seem to be failing whilst the European/US/Australian brands seem to do better and better. That is not a function of the UK government, it is to do with product and process. Sunseeker and co seem to sell a fair few boats over the years but they don't make any significant profit and I suspect have terrible cash flow issues, which will compound their problems. If you look at similar sized/speced big boats the engines will cost about the same, the amount of fibreglass and resin used will be about the same so what's different??? Watching Aquaholics Princess videos and other manufacturers assembly videos, the answer is a LOT. The UK manufacturers still seem to build boats the same way they did in the 1980s - just bigger with more varnish. Too many people not adding enough value at each process. All the "hand finished" by some very skilled chap in a brown coat is BS. Design for assembly, then get a robot/cnc machine to do it all.

Anyone selling big expensive toys to very wealthy people will be trying to sell them to wealthy people all over the world. The available number of customers is finite - not every rich person wants a boat, but the majority of potential customers are not in the UK. So overall I do not think Sunseeker and co's issues are anything to do with the latest UK government.

 

[Clash]

Has nobody actually quantified what the change in CGT for the disposal of a business actually is? Because when you look at it, the contention that the change would affect the purchase of a £5 million boat looks ludicrous.

It's an increase from 10% to 14%, i.e. 4% difference. It also doesn't come into force until April this year, so business owners would have had 6 months to prepare for it.

So for your notional £5 million boat to be eaten up by the increase, your business sale has to be at least £125 million. Previous CGT @ 10% = £12.5 million, new CGT @ 14% = £17.5 million. The poor "broad shouldered" business man will only have £107.5 million to trouser instead of £112.5 million. That doesn't include the £1 million allowance. Cry me a river.

Incidentally that allowance was reduced from £10 million to £1 million in 2020. Arguably a much bigger impact than the additional 4%. I wonder what affect that had on the sale of Sunseekers et al?

 

[Portofino]

Has nobody actually quantified what the change in CGT for the disposal of a business actually is? Because when you look at it, the contention that the change would affect the purchase of a £5 million boat looks ludicrous.

It's an increase from 10% to 14%, i.e. 4% difference. It also doesn't come into force until April this year, so business owners would have had 6 months to prepare for it.

So for your notional £5 million boat to be eaten up by the increase, your business sale has to be at least £125 million. Previous CGT @ 10% = £12.5 million, new CGT @ 14% = £17.5 million. The poor "broad shouldered" business man will only have £107.5 million to trouser instead of £112.5 million. That doesn't include the £1 million allowance. Cry me a river.

Incidentally that allowance was reduced from £10 million to £1 million in 2020. Arguably a much bigger impact than the additional 4%. I wonder what affect that had on the sale of Sunseekers et al?

Excellent cherry picking ^ . To suite yourself.
Takes ages to sell a big business btw , and the uncertainty around “ what’s next “ heading down the tracks from the current U.K. Gov . Caution is the word not frivolous spending .It’s not just CGT and ( where applicable) IHT it’s the whole nervousness and diminished confidence to splurge on a big ticket boat in terms of uncertainty caused by the change in Gov . I quoted CGT as one example.

Do you think folks with “ broad shoulders “ have infinity broad shoulders ….just can keep giving ? + those that boat at this level btw .



Gov web site here
Capital Gains Tax — rates of tax

@ Kashust

You don’t need many to drop out , just a subtle few . Take three @£15 M that’s neigh on 10 % of T/O of circa £400M ,
Which with deposit loss , cash flow harmed = making 100 redundant which is whats happened.
They will have pipe line and fingers on pulses by all the sales and marketing team , done an evaluation on prospects .
As the article says “ cash flow “ difficulties.

Going further ( we don’t know and they won’t opening blurt ) I wonder how many cancelled orders there has been too ?

The margins are thin , too thin to stand a 10 % ish downturn before cutting overheads .

It’s wether those few Brits dropping out can be replaced by foreigners. Hardly gonna attract Med country citizens esp Italians are they ?

 

[kashurst]

Excellent cherry picking ^ . To suite yourself.

Gov web site here
Capital Gains Tax — rates of tax

@ Kashust

You don’t need may to drop put . Take three @£15 M that’s neigh on 10 % of T/O of circa £400M ,
Which with deposit loss , cash flow harmed = making 100 redundant which is whats happened.

The margins are thin , too thin to stand a 10 % ish downturn before cutting overheads .

It’s wethers those few Brits dropping out can be replaced by foreigners. Hardly gonna attract Med country citizens esp Italians are they ?

The margins are thin, and the risks high. I doubt many boat builders who only build very big boats will survive unless they have already have a lot of automation and high productivity in their processes.

The only boat builders who can do that are the ones that already make money. Or someone brave takes over, redesigns everthing for automation and refits the factory to suit. But that will result in a lot of jobs going. Given the risks are high, the potential market small, who would do it?

Sunseekers are world famous partly because of James Bond so I can see someone very rich taking them forward. I cant see a hedge fund wanting to actually get stuck in properly. All they ever seem to do is get it all bright and shiny, get costs down to boost ebitda and flog it quick.

If Princess and Fairline disappeared who outside of the UK boaty people would notice?

 

[Clash]

Excellent cherry picking ^ . To suite yourself.
Takes ages to sell a big business btw , and the uncertainty around “ what’s next “ heading down the tracks from the current U.K. Gov . Caution is the word not frivolous spending .

Gov web site here
Capital Gains Tax — rates of tax

Yes, that's where I got the figures. Not sure what your point is. And what's heading down the tracks wrt CGT is stated clearly here. Certainty for at least two years.

How long it takes to sell a business is entirely irrelevant in a hypothetical scenario that YOU invented about a notional boat buyer who won't buy a boat this year.

 

[Clash]

And I mentioned this before, but clearly needs repeating, Princess reports 35% of their sales come from the US. I doubt there's much of a difference between them and other boat builders like Sunseeker in that regard. They also sell 5% in the UK. An increase in tariffs into the US (something Trump has promised to do) would have a much more chilling effect than a few percentage points extra on a notional UK buyer's CGT bill.

 

[westernman]

And I mentioned this before, but clearly needs repeating, Princess reports 35% of their sales come from the US. I doubt there's much of a difference between them and other boat builders like Sunseeker in that regard. They also sell 5% in the UK. An increase in tariffs into the US (something Trump has promised to do) would have a much more chilling effect than a few percentage points extra on a notional UK buyer's CGT bill.

Of course not long ago the EU and UK had 25% tariffs on boats coming from the USA. New and used.

So a used boat would be 25% tariff + 20% VAT bringing the additional cost on import to 50% before you even start to think about RCR/RCD compliance.

 

[Poignard]

The kind of people who buy big Sunseekers etc are by definition already very wealthy, with a broad range of assets. They may well live in the UK but financially they are resilient to government changes and taxation changes. Anyone dropping a million or more on a brand new Sunseeker will be buying through an offshore company, not paying VAT and will almost certainly keep it somewhere warm outside of the UK. They are likely to be very astute financially and well advised. They won't be maxing out the credit card or taking a marine mortgage out to buy it. They may well borrow the money but it will be at a lower interest rate and have the potential to flip the currency the debt is originally denominated in to take advantage of currency changes to reduce the debt.
Some Farmers appear to be very rich with £10million plus farms, but farms dont make a lot of money or generate a lot of cash. Investments in land are not very liquid or flexible. So I doubt many/any UK farmers can actually buy and operate a £1million+ boat in reality.

There are millions of very wealthy people all over the world. A fair few in the UK. The latest UK gov changes to CGT won't especially bother some UK based wealthy people unless they need to sell something relatively soon. If the cash is not at hand and they want to buy a big toy the easiest thing to do is borrow against assets. Then later sell off stuff or receive income/dividend payments etc to pay off the debt in stages to suit the relevant tax charges or just pay the interest until they sell the boat. Sell the boat, give the bank the money back plus what ever they lost in depreciation. By which time their tax situation may well be different and more amenable to turning assets into cash. Meanwhile their invested assets will hopefully have grown in value more than the debt on the boat.

The UK brands seem to be failing whilst the European/US/Australian brands seem to do better and better. That is not a function of the UK government, it is to do with product and process. Sunseeker and co seem to sell a fair few boats over the years but they don't make any significant profit and I suspect have terrible cash flow issues, which will compound their problems. If you look at similar sized/speced big boats the engines will cost about the same, the amount of fibreglass and resin used will be about the same so what's different??? Watching Aquaholics Princess videos and other manufacturers assembly videos, the answer is a LOT. The UK manufacturers still seem to build boats the same way they did in the 1980s - just bigger with more varnish. Too many people not adding enough value at each process. All the "hand finished" by some very skilled chap in a brown coat is BS. Design for assembly, then get a robot/cnc machine to do it all.

Anyone selling big expensive toys to very wealthy people will be trying to sell them to wealthy people all over the world. The available number of customers is finite - not every rich person wants a boat, but the majority of potential customers are not in the UK. So overall I do not think Sunseeker and co's issues are anything to do with the latest UK government.

I'll save your post.

With a Premium Bond draw imminent, I hope to find myself needing advice on how to look after a large fortune.

Although a million quid is small beer these days.

 

[Clash]

Of course not long ago the EU and UK had 25% tariffs on boats coming from the USA. New and used.

So a used boat would be 25% tariff + 20% VAT bringing the additional cost on import to 50% before you even start to think about RCR/RCD compliance.

Yeah, that was suspended in 2021 I think? But it's up for review again in March this year.

Currently duty on boats imported into the US is between 1.5 and 4.5%. Very small beer. 25% would kill the trade dead imo.