Self Employed Marine Engineers and COVID 19. The First business casualties.

[JumbleDuck]

Dodgy figures I think:

"In ISC schools, there are currently 28,910 non-British pupils whose parents live overseas, which represents 5.4% of the total ISC pupil population in 2019. In 2018, there were 28,513, also 5.4% of total pupils. ............... By far the largest numbers of pupils come from China. "
ISC Annual report 2019.

So certainly less than 3% from mainland China

I was talking about boarders, while your percentages cover all pupils. From the FT last October:

40% of 70,000 is 28,000, so it looks as if we are using the same data. I'm told that the purely boarding schools are having a hard time recruiting, partly because of the eye watering costs (£30k pa minimum now) and partly because of historical abuses case tarnishing the offering. Even Eton, it seems is now not particularly hard to get into and is no longer only for the highest performers in Common Entrance.

 

[anoccasionalyachtsman]

Could be that governments could be a bit more mature about things than they have been, and with international agreement on internal movement restrictions, testing and a lot of etcs we could be travelling again sooner than we might think. Kind of important because such a large chunk of trade depends on it, and we're going to have to do some pretty radical stuff to pay this lot off.

 

[GregOddity]

As soon as we are up and running again Greg we will see what work we’ve got for you on the fleet boats

thanks for your recent work on Dawnrazor mate

For you guys 24/7 anything you need! will also have a new part for the bow roller as soon as I can get my hands on materials and move. It's been amazingly frustrating for the last month. Seems everything these days comes from China.

 

[Daydream believer]

Even after it's under control here I expect there to be limitations on international travel for a considerable time, and it won't just be the tourist industry which suffers. There are 120,000 Chinese students in the UK, including 30% of all postgraduate students in the UK. Many third-rate universities rely totally on overseas students and when these dry up, as they will, those places are going to be in deep, deep doodoo.

Likewise, around 40% of all pupils at UK boarding schools come from China. They won't be back, so I expect to see a lot of schools close their boarding provision or shut down altogether.

Boarding schools would normally close around June anyway. Have they actually sent the pupils home yet? a lot of parents may not have been able to take them. ( or wanted them )So, to an extent , there is a breathing space to September during which time some limited travel MAY begin again. That could assist them in getting up and running. Of course it depends on what sort of financial hit the parents have had & how long they take to recover sufficient funds.
Presumably the fees have already been paid for this term and running costs (ie food etc) for those going home early may have been saved. As would possibly costs, cleaning , some freelance teaching, nursing , rate deferral etc. If the school is slick with the way they handle finances.

 

[Dawnrazor]

For you guys 24/7 anything you need! will also have a new part for the bow roller as soon as I can get my hands on materials and move. It's been amazingly frustrating for the last month. Seems everything these days comes from China.

Top man, thanks Greg. I think we've got a few more jobs to be done, but we'll compile a list and get back to you.

Thanks for sorting the bow-roller strap, not an issue at the moment.

Aside fom the obvious, i hope all is well mate.

 

[pcatterall]

In a more general way shouldn't we try to keep businesses going when and where it is safe to do so. Example on the news was a window cleaner, surely he can safely continue? his only point of contact could be in getting payment and there are ways to manage that. A tradesman working on a yacht in a semi deserted yard could equally not be a risk if any potential points of contact are considered. The effects on the economy are going to be terrible and once the virus is under control we will need to consider where we can safely ease off the restrictive brakes.

 

[doug748]

I was talking about boarders, while your percentages cover all pupils. From the FT last October:

40% of 70,000 is 28,000, so it looks as if we are using the same data. I'm told that the purely boarding schools are having a hard time recruiting, partly because of the eye watering costs (£30k pa minimum now) and partly because of historical abuses case tarnishing the offering. Even Eton, it seems is now not particularly hard to get into and is no longer only for the highest performers in Common Entrance.

Ah yes, apologies for that, though I still don't see the sector struggling any more than we all will.

Numbers hold up in the UK and there has been a massive growth in overseas campuses which now total nearly 60 with over a 100 affiliated local schools. Mainland Chinese students may or may not want to return to the UK but there will be an English school in the local region to cater for them.

I have an interest, my BIL is trapped in Malaysia gingering up business, whilst we look after his bloody dog.


.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Boarding schools would normally close around June anyway. Have they actually sent the pupils home yet?

I think they are allowed to stay open, and as you say many pupils can't actually go home. From the autumn I expect there will be intermittent travel restrictions to and from all countries as a way of dealing with flare-ups, and that will deter parents from sending children abroad for at least a year or two. There may even be official restrictions. It's illegal for Japanese residents to send their children overseas to school, but at the moment they turn a blind eye to it. That may well change ...

Ah yes, apologies for that, though I still don't see the sector struggling any more than we all will.

I don't think private schools as a whole will suffer, but I think boarding will decline precipitously and that will cause big problems for some schools - less prestigious ones which depend on Chinese boarders to balance the books.

 

[matthewriches]

Very much business as usual at 2 of the the yards I work out of regularly. Also commercial stuff has carried on but more telephone or remote access to superintendent or on-site engineers. Motor trade stuff has reduced slightly but recovery has actually increased Thurs/Fri this week for some odd reason, despite there being next to no cars on the road.

As they say, keep on carrying on and see what the fallout will be afterwards Leisure industry will really take a pounding among others

 

[JumbleDuck]

Leisure industry will really take a pounding among others

Don't despair too soon. If this makes international travel harder and/or more expensive, there may be a boom in closer-to-home activities.

 

[Daydream believer]

Don't despair too soon. If this makes international travel harder and/or more expensive, there may be a boom in closer-to-home activities.

& where are the punters supposed to get the money from?

 

[Caraway]

That is the ongoing problem. As the pandemic affects everyone, the customers who you would look to for work when the lockdown is eased may also be in a dire situation. Discretionary spending (which will be a large part of leisure boating) will be limited.

 

[JumbleDuck]

& where are the punters supposed to get the money from?

Not everybody has lost their jobs, or has jobs to lose. All those pensioners who go on cruises will have to find somewhere else to get norovirus.

 

[Deleted member 36384]

In a more general way shouldn't we try to keep businesses going when and where it is safe to do so. Example on the news was a window cleaner, surely he can safely continue? his only point of contact could be in getting payment and there are ways to manage that. A tradesman working on a yacht in a semi deserted yard could equally not be a risk if any potential points of contact are considered. The effects on the economy are going to be terrible and once the virus is under control we will need to consider where we can safely ease off the restrictive brakes.

Government Guidance on the new legislation https://assets.publishing.service.g..._staying_at_home_and_away_from_others__1_.pdf

Other businesses can remain open and their employees can travel to work, provided they cannot work from home.

That suggests to me that work can continue. My local council stopped domestic waste collection because they could not manage the 2m separation in the dumper truck cab. The following day, it restarted with a mini bus moving the operators around, that allowed the 2m separation.

Could I get a painter to paint the outside of my house, probably, according to the regulation and the guidance.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Could I get a painter to paint the outside of my house, probably, according to the regulation and the guidance.

As long as s/he is not showing symptoms, the answer appears to be "yes".

 

[GregOddity]

Top man, thanks Greg. I think we've got a few more jobs to be done, but we'll compile a list and get back to you.

Thanks for sorting the bow-roller strap, not an issue at the moment.

Aside fom the obvious, i hope all is well mate.

Apart from the obvious all is well. Just as bored as an oyster. I cleaned Selkie 4x already, polished the stove and rewashed and polished all the cutlery. We'll make it out. We just need to hang tough. For you guys is anything you need. You do know I mean that literally.

2020 has been full of surprises so far on my side, from my car to a global epidemic. Next will be aliens landing in Times Square.

 

[GregOddity]

As long as s/he is not showing symptoms, the answer appears to be "yes".

I think that will change. They have to stop the country as much as they can to stop the spread of the virus. The flip side of s/he not showing any symptoms is that you can't see a virus. That's how Boris got infected.

 

[Daydream believer]

Not everybody has lost their jobs, or has jobs to lose. All those pensioners who go on cruises will have to find somewhere else to get norovirus.

No they may not loose their jobs but, as an example, my son has been told that he has to accept a 25% wage reduction for the next 4 months & must take his holiday in that period. The firm has told him to go home , as their turnover has dropped £100m in 2 months
I asked him if he can manage financially. He said that as long as his wife kept her job he could manage OK, but luxuries, holidays etc for this year & next year will be cancelled. Mainly because the stability of his firm & his job could not be guaranteed with the financial hit the firm will take.
He normally has 3 weeks hols in the UK. If that is repeated in a couple of million homes & the self employed sector also takes a hit; because they will have loans to pay back & late VAT & PAYE bills coming in; then there simply will be less cash about. Add austerity, because the country will be in hock up to its neck & I cannot see the leisure sectors having a good time
I am a pensioner & will not be going on a UK holiday next year

 

[JumbleDuck]

He normally has 3 weeks hols in the UK. If that is repeated in a couple of million homes & the self employed sector also takes a hit; because they will have loans to pay back & late VAT & PAYE bills coming in; then there simply will be less cash about. Add austerity, because the country will be in hock up to its neck & I cannot see the leisure sectors having a good time

Tough for him, and I sympathise. I suppose it will depend on how many people cancel UK holidays compared to how many change from overseas trips to something here. I still reckon that holiday cottage bookings will go through the roof when restrictions are lifted.

 

[GregOddity]

Tough for him, and I sympathise. I suppose it will depend on how many people cancel UK holidays compared to how many change from overseas trips to something here. I still reckon that holiday cottage bookings will go through the roof when restrictions are lifted.

I hope that happens as many regions in the UK depend on tourism. I fear that it won't as most of the population overall will have had holiday time used now or they find themselves saddled with a few months of low pay / no income/ debts. Most of the people I spoke to in jobs so far have had holiday time put to use now. This is time they will not have again this year.