dunedin
Well-Known Member
Looking at Predict wind with its range of models, it currently suggests ……… you want an early start time !
RTI this Saturday
- Thread starter flaming
- Start date
wonkywinch
Well-Known Member
Met Office now published their forecast for Sat. An occlusion with troughs. Going to be wet and windy.
Chiara’s slave
Well-Known Member
It seems that our choice to sail the RTI from the bar of the Royal Solent is the correct one.
Never Grumble
Well-Known Member
I'm still undecided.
flaming
Well-Known Member
Interestingly the UKV model, which is the met office's, is now diverging quite a lot from the others. In that it initially gives a Southerly of about 13/14 knots at start time. Only veering SW and increasing to 18/20 about midday.
The other, more general, models, leave the wind in the SW all day, and start up at about 20 knots, increasing to 23/24 by midday. (Both cases that's average, not gusts, gusts about 10 knots on top)
The other, more general, models, leave the wind in the SW all day, and start up at about 20 knots, increasing to 23/24 by midday. (Both cases that's average, not gusts, gusts about 10 knots on top)
Chiara’s slave
Well-Known Member
My UKV only goes to Friday.
flaming
Well-Known Member
dunedin
Well-Known Member
wonkywinch
Well-Known Member
The UKV provides hourly forecasts covering the period T+0 to T+48 hours, produced at surface level and at standard pressure levels eight times a day. With 3 hourly forecasts out to T+120. Model runs hourly, with the run times of T+54 with 03*, 15* hours extended to T+120.
Met Office UK Deterministic (UKV)2km on a 2-year rolling archive - Registry of Open Data on AWS.
flaming
Well-Known Member
This should bring a moderate, becoming quite strong and blustery SW/WSW with squally showers, likely on and off through the morning and early afternoon.
Wind: SW 13-18, gusting 22 kts, increasing SW 20-25 gusting 30 kts with squally showers, veering WSW 20-25 gusting 30 kts through the afternoon, then easing W/WSW 13-18 gusting 20 kts by early evening.
Temperature: 15-17⁰C on land, 14-16⁰C at sea, sea surface 14-15⁰C.
Sea conditions: 0.5-0.8m in the E Solent, 1.8-2.2m in the W Solent, 2-2.5m outside, 5-7s period.
From the race website.
Wind: SW 13-18, gusting 22 kts, increasing SW 20-25 gusting 30 kts with squally showers, veering WSW 20-25 gusting 30 kts through the afternoon, then easing W/WSW 13-18 gusting 20 kts by early evening.
Temperature: 15-17⁰C on land, 14-16⁰C at sea, sea surface 14-15⁰C.
Sea conditions: 0.5-0.8m in the E Solent, 1.8-2.2m in the W Solent, 2-2.5m outside, 5-7s period.
From the race website.
Blueboatman
Well-Known Member
Well at least it won’t be a tidal drifting race?
I’ve only done two, each time in sub Anderson22 VMG kind of boats.
And I did think towards the finish that by now we could have been anticipating a nice Pernod and frites if we’d sailed south!
I’ve only done two, each time in sub Anderson22 VMG kind of boats.
And I did think towards the finish that by now we could have been anticipating a nice Pernod and frites if we’d sailed south!
Mark-1
Well-Known Member
And I did think towards the finish that by now we could have been anticipating a nice Pernod and frites if we’d sailed south!
Yeah. I've only done it 5 times, but the first time (and every time since) I was struck by the insanity of a 60 odd mile sail to end up in Cowes.
Mind you, being finished by the Royal Yacht Britannia used to be nice.
flaming
Well-Known Member
I can get on board with that... It's the RORC races that start at Cowes, last 24-36 hours and end in Cowes....
Chiara’s slave
Well-Known Member
My forecast models are completely united in predicting a chunk more than that.
flaming
Well-Known Member
GFS and ECWMF are still sticking with more, but UKV and ICON have toned it down quite a bit.
Lucky Duck
Well-Known Member
I have seen some talk of changing to the non-spinnaker handicap.
No idea how practical that is or whether it could backfire spectacularly if the wind isn’t as strong as anticipated
No idea how practical that is or whether it could backfire spectacularly if the wind isn’t as strong as anticipated
flaming
Well-Known Member
Lucky Duck
Well-Known Member
OK, so too late before the subject was even raised.
As an aside I’m not clear why the RTIR says ‘more than 1,700 boats’ then further down 855 entries. The support/spectator fleet can’t be that large to explain the difference?
As an aside I’m not clear why the RTIR says ‘more than 1,700 boats’ then further down 855 entries. The support/spectator fleet can’t be that large to explain the difference?
wonkywinch
Well-Known Member
Another update by the Met Office. This midday Sat synoptic now shows the front as defined cold (no longer occluded) front but all the "x" on it over Biscay means it's weak.
It's position is further west at midday, over Lyme Bay with the centre of the low further north.
Brisk SW veering W later in the afternoon when the front goes through after 2/3pm.
If it stays like this, or improves further from earlier forecasts, should be an exciting day.
It's position is further west at midday, over Lyme Bay with the centre of the low further north.
Brisk SW veering W later in the afternoon when the front goes through after 2/3pm.
If it stays like this, or improves further from earlier forecasts, should be an exciting day.
Chiara’s slave
Well-Known Member
It looks to be at it’s peak at St Cats at just the time the fleet will be going through. Fast early starters will miss the worst.
