Modern Marine Weather

[zoidberg]

Who has studied the 3rd edition of this reference tome, by David Burch/Starpath?
What comment can you make...?

 

[Skylark]

I bought the latest edition almost 12 months ago. This was based upon other posters praising it/earlier versions. I wanted to read an up to date piece of work in preparation for crewing on an Atlantic crossing.

I have quite an extensive sailing book library. (I’m a Shorebased and cruising instructor).

I think it is the only sailing reference book that I have subsequently sold. I read it cover to cover but just couldn’t get on with it. No desire to revisit it so sold it to a “we buy any books” business for a couple of pounds. I found it very disjointed, all over the place with sometimes illogical flow. Sadly, I didn’t enjoy his style of hard to digest writing.

 

[capnsensible]

Modern marine weather is not like it was in the old days.

 

[GHA]

I've ed2 on kindle, didn't know ed3 was out, ta.
Essential on any cruising boat's kindle imho, is there anything else comes close to such an in depth look at theory and practical weather on a cruising boat?

Though surprisingly very few on here have much interest in learning more about weather forecasting beyond "my app's the best"

The barometer handbook is another must have.

Preface to the third edition
A tremendous amount of the modern part of marine weather has changed in the past five years, which, with the addition of color, and all the benefits that brings, makes this a major update to the previous edition. We have greatly expanded the use of GRIB formatted forecasts, including overlays on weather maps and other images. High resolution rapid refresh models now make it possible to forecast local winds in digital format, which has a potentially revolutionary impact on day sailing in local waters—it’s not just for ocean passages any longer. An overview of optimum weather routing has been added, along with expanded discussion of ASCAT scatterometer winds, which are now available in GRIB format.

We have emphasized obtaining weather data by email, including crucial details of the process. Now, with accurate barometers in our cellphones, the benefit of careful pressure analysis is more readily available, and has been stressed. The crucial practice of forecast management (map sequencing) has been improved, and new means of squall forecasting using the new simulated radar reflectivity forecasts have been added. The entire book has been gone over to optimize descriptions, with major updates in several sections.

Modern Marine Weather: From Time-honored Traditional Knowledge to the Latest Technology eBook: Burch, David, Burch, Tobias: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store

 

[Skylark]

I've ed2 on kindle, didn't know ed3 was out, ta.
Essential on any cruising boat's kindle imho, is there anything else comes close to such an in depth look at theory and practical weather on a cruising boat?

I think it was your glowing endorsement that steered me into buying the 3rd edition ?

I think that there are alternative text books containing the essentials of weather but without the waffle from his pen. Latest developments in technology to obtain, interpret, overlay and animate forecasts seems to be changing so rapidly that the interweb is the go-to place for information.

Just my ten cents ?

 

[zoidberg]

Hands up all them wot sat in a huddle around a crackly radio, listening on 198 Longwave, and scribbling down the Half Past Midnight Shipping Forecast and the Coastal Station Reports, curating notes, then drawing up one's own Synopic Chart and Prebaratic from that, to decide on a 'silly o'clock departure' back across the Channel or a long lie-in....?

Hands up them wot have no idea wot that's all about....?

 

[GHA]

Hands up all them wot sat in a huddle around a crackly radio, listening on 198 Longwave, and scribbling down the Half Past Midnight Shipping Forecast and the Coastal Station Reports, curating notes, then drawing up one's own Synopic Chart and Prebaratic from that, to decide on a 'silly o'clock departure' back across the Channel or a long lie-in....?

Hands up them wot have no idea wot that's all about....?

There's a good book which goes into detail about modern sources of weather and formats, called modern marine weather..
Then if you really want to get into it...

Lee Chesneau's Marine Weather

 

[franksingleton]

Hands up all them wot sat in a huddle around a crackly radio, listening on 198 Longwave, and scribbling down the Half Past Midnight Shipping Forecast and the Coastal Station Reports, curating notes, then drawing up one's own Synopic Chart and Prebaratic from that, to decide on a 'silly o'clock departure' back across the Channel or a long lie-in....?

Hands up them wot have no idea wot that's all about....?

Well, I wrote the RYA manual in the 70s on doing just that and ran courses for yachties. It was a hairy old business started, initially, by glider pilots who had gained some forecasting experience during the war. It was a best endeavours job trying to get a quart out of a pint pot.

Of course, the world has moved on and forecasts can be far better than any of us meteorologists ever dreamed of in the 50s and 60s even when the first computer models became operational. For passage making, in fact anything over a few hours, we sailors can do no better than to use, with care, computer generated forecasts, GRIB files. From my personal experience, for the first few days, the GFS, DWD ICON, ECMWF will be very similar. When there are differences they usually will be within the noise levels of the weather and the models. For planning and, probably, routing, ECMWF should have the edge beyond about 5 days. Whether it does so in reality, I do not know. I doubt that there are enough statistically significant data to know. Naturally, there are masses of opinions based on what individuals have experienced on a few occasions.

So, use whichever model you like best. Do not think that you will get a better forecast by paying for it. You may get more convenient delivery systems and presentationsi. You may get routing services but not better forecasts. Remember that the scientist who develop models continually assess results and update them. Also, the science is open. Through WMO, modellers meet and discuss what they are doing. There are no secrets. Raw data and model outputs are exchanged between nations. If someone finds a new technique or finds that some new data source gives improved results, they pass that on to others. A recent example has been the use of GPS radio propagation data.

Where we can add something is in local topographic effects but, even here, detailed models might help in the short term. Plus, of course the Mk1 eyeball. That will see the approaching squall or that massive cunim looming up through the haze giving just enough time to put handheld devices in the oven.

 

[franksingleton]

There's a good book which goes into detail about modern sources of weather and formats, called modern marine weather..
Then if you really want to get into it...

Lee Chesneau's Marine Weather

I have been listening to this and am quite horrified. He is living in the past. Years ago when I was a young forecaster, we paid great attention to upper level charts. They gave an insight into how the atmosphere works. The problem, of course is that the atmosphere is inordinately complex. Looking at these upper air charts, 500 hPa, 300 hPa, jet stream and othe levels tells you what is happening now in fairly general terms. However, prediction was quite another matter as we found out by bitter experience. What these guys have not caught up with is that prediction is far beyond the capability of the human brain. Before computers we could really only make intelligent guesses.

It is all very well to laugh or sneer at differential equations. The fact is that there is really no other way to predict the evolution of the atmosphere. Wilhelm Bjerknes recognised that around 1906. L F Richardson did so even more in 1918 when he tried a manual NWP calculation. Now we have the computing power, the communications systems and onboard hardware to present the results. All this unstructured woffle becomes irrelevant. How often are you not going to be able to receive GRIB data? Even when you are, you will still have GMDSS texts and charts based on NWP. What is the point of yapping away like a miniature poodle when you have a bloody big dog barking away? And, if you were cut off from a forecast service, you would not have the upper air charts to study.

 

[zoidberg]

There are sailboats with more weather/comms equipment on board than a NASA moonshot - some of them heading SW past Spain at present - and many, many others with but an HF comms receiver and perhaps a non-recording baro.

What 'fit' would Yer Man recommend for a more modest yottie who's looking to get out of sight of land, and maybe off the continental drop-off, too.....?

 

[Tomahawk]

Are you seeking the Jester attitude or Vendee approach?

 

[Stemar]

How often are you not going to be able to receive GRIB data?

Would I be right in thinking that, if you're far enough offshore not to get a reliable pre-digested forecast, you're just going to have to deal with the weather you get? I can't help thinking that most ocean crossing cruisers aren't going to be quick enough to get out of the way of a nasty bit of weather anyway.

 

[GHA]

Would I be right in thinking that, if you're far enough offshore not to get a reliable pre-digested forecast, you're just going to have to deal with the weather you get? I can't help thinking that most ocean crossing cruisers aren't going to be quick enough to get out of the way of a nasty bit of weather anyway.

You might not get completely clear but a few dozen miles when a front comes through can make a difference between getting *really* hammered or just hammered.
Extreme example is the GGR, some in that 'race' got severely plastered with no accurate weather data onboard while hard core cruisers nearby knew when to heave too for a while or head north/south a bit to miss the very worst. Sailing is a boatful of possibilities, good and bad, every little helps to push the odds a bit more in your favour

 

[franksingleton]

There are sailboats with more weather/comms equipment on board than a NASA moonshot - some of them heading SW past Spain at present - and many, many others with but an HF comms receiver and perhaps a non-recording baro.

What 'fit' would Yer Man recommend for a more modest yottie who's looking to get out of sight of land, and maybe off the continental drop-off, too.....?

As someone who is basically a coastal sailor with occasional longer passages, up to 24 hours now but 2-4 days in the past, VHF, NAVTEX, laptop or tablet with ability to use mobile internet as well as LANs. We plan carefully On the basis that it is better to be in port wishing you were at sea than at sea wishing you were in port.

For an ocean sailor there are more options. As a minimum, I guess that a HF/MF/SSB receiver plus laptop or tablet with ability to receive RTTY/SITOR and radiofax. After that, I would suggest one of two options - or both - of fitting a modem to a HF/SSB Ttransceiver and getting GRIBs by email or getting a satellite phone with the capability of sending/receiving emails. But others wh are long distance sailors might differ.

 

[franksingleton]

Would I be right in thinking that, if you're far enough offshore not to get a reliable pre-digested forecast, you're just going to have to deal with the weather you get? I can't help thinking that most ocean crossing cruisers aren't going to be quick enough to get out of the way of a nasty bit of weather anyway.

I do not disagree with that being somewhat cynical of the value of weather routing a slow moving vessel. However, the more warning you have of bad weather, the more time you have to prepare both boat and crew. How long does it take to change a main sail or rig sea anchors?