IN in EU or OUT from EU

[ChrisRayner]

France has overtaken the UK as the 5th world economy. The overseas Yachting industry is safe and strong; The UK has lost almost one trillion pounds because of Brexit; all of us, including the over 60's majority of which voted and caused for Brexit, will be paying the "bill" via taxes and lower pensions.
However, lets be optimistic and sensible; the UK is not going to leave the EU despite of the opinion poll (referendum)

No, and no. The calculation on France's relative economic size to the UK was done in a non-standard way to make a partisan point. Briefly, GDP comparative figures are calculated using the annual GDP, and comparisons are made using an average exchange rate over the year in question. This spurious comparison was made using the lowest exchange rate to which the pound dropped on the day in question. I don't follow these figures but they fluctuate by the minute. Currently depressed owing to uncertainty, likely to recover as soon as the uncertainty is resolved.

If the UK government ignores the result of the referendum I predict it will fall, and things will get even worse. The Tories are already forming plans to negotiate leaving, and, once the leadership election is over, that's exactly what they will do.

 

[Euphonyx]

No, and no. The calculation on France's relative economic size to the UK was done in a non-standard way to make a partisan point. Briefly, GDP comparative figures are calculated using the annual GDP, and comparisons are made using an average exchange rate over the year in question. This spurious comparison was made using the lowest exchange rate to which the pound dropped on the day in question. I don't follow these figures but they fluctuate by the minute. Currently depressed owing to uncertainty, likely to recover as soon as the uncertainty is resolved.

If the UK government ignores the result of the referendum I predict it will fall, and things will get even worse. The Tories are already forming plans to negotiate leaving, and, once the leadership election is over, that'sexactly what they will do.[


Of course you are quite correct but... does GDP matter now as a measure of viability? Should we not be looking at Imports and exports of product v services??

 

[dom]

.

Of course you are quite correct but... does GDP matter now as a measure of viability? Should we not be looking at Imports and exports of product v services??

What and ignore half the financial and the capital sector? A strange notion indeed!

 

[Euphonyx]

What and ignore half the financial and the capital sector? A strange notion indeed!

Its a point of view. Thats all. What if the financial and capital sector bugger off? a bit of action is needed is the only point.

 

[Neil]

Its a point of view. Thats all. What if the financial and capital sector bugger off? a bit of action is needed is the only point.

This is one area I don't understand. I have read that London's financial services sector handles trillions of Euro in transactions, because they have something called 'passporting rights", presumably one of the four pillars - free movement of capital. I have also read that these rights will not be available to the financial services sector following Brexit. It's also my understanding that the financial services sector is more important than manufacturing to the UK's GDP.

I can't imagine the EU being happy about a Non-EU country with a different currency handling any of these financial transactions. Secondly, the German and London Stock Exchanges were due to merge and be based in London, but this has now been shelved on the basis that the EU will not want an institution so important to it based in a non-EU county. Is this not a rather bleak outlook?

 

[Tranona]

Its a point of view. Thats all. What if the financial and capital sector bugger off? a bit of action is needed is the only point.

Financial services will indeed be the most important issue for the negotiations, much more important than tariffs on goods. One of the fundamental problems of the EU is that it is based on second wave industries. Remember that its origins were in the coal and steel industry when such things underpinned the economy.

The world has moved on and the knowledge world we now live in does not respect territorial boundaries. The migration issue that tends to be seen as a singular problem is in fact far more complex. Only today there was an item on television about Lush cosmetics in Poole which employs 1400 people, 60% of them non UK citizens from 58 countries. Just about all will be low paid jobs where there is not a local supply of labour. It is this type of migration of people from low living standard countries to achieve a higher standard of personal living that impacts on the working class voters who switched from Labour to UKIP and voted Leave.

On the other hand the knowledge economy requires freedom of movement for knowledge workers. The challenge for our negotiators is devising an immigration policy that facilitates the movement of knowledge workers but limits the mass movement of low paid workers. Beneath the bluster, if you listened to Boris, that is exactly what he was saying - just did not have a plan of to achieve it.

 

[Tranona]

This is one area I don't understand. I have read that London's financial services sector handles trillions of Euro in transactions, because they have something called 'passporting rights", presumably one of the four pillars - free movement of capital. I have also read that these rights will not be available to the financial services sector following Brexit. It's also my understanding that the financial services sector is more important than manufacturing to the UK's GDP.

I can't imagine the EU being happy about a Non-EU country with a different currency handling any of these financial transactions. Secondly, the German and London Stock Exchanges were due to merge and be based in London, but this has now been shelved on the basis that the EU will not want an institution so important to it based in a non-EU county. Is this not a rather bleak outlook?

There are sound reasons why London is the world's major financial market and why all the world's major players operate there. While there may be pressure from Brussels to encourage movement to Frankfurt, or Paris, or even Netherlands or Luxembourg, the reality is that those centres do not offer the facilities that London does - location, language, legal and regulatory framework, communications, labour laws, expertise etc.

As I suggested in the previous post the challenge will be to maintain those advantages, in particular the ability of firms to recruit globally for the high value knowledge jobs.

As for the stock exchange, not sure that there is any decision yet, but obviously politicians and civil servants will try to put pressure to either can the deal or centre it on Frankfurt. Suspect though that shareholders will have the final decision. One of the reasons the FT index has stayed firm is that it is an international exchange and a significant part of the market, and most of the top 100 are not firms that operate in the UK - that is the majority of their business and earnings come from outside the UK. That is an underlying reason why the UK has still prospered over the last 30 years or so while the second wave industries (mining, steel making, shipbuilding and heavy engineering etc) have been declining.

The future lies in new technologies, communications and global trade. Hopefully our leaders will recognise this in shaping our economy for the future.

 

[VO5]

Financial services will indeed be the most important issue for the negotiations, much more important than tariffs on goods. One of the fundamental problems of the EU is that it is based on second wave industries. Remember that its origins were in the coal and steel industry when such things underpinned the economy.

The world has moved on and the knowledge world we now live in does not respect territorial boundaries. The migration issue that tends to be seen as a singular problem is in fact far more complex. Only today there was an item on television about Lush cosmetics in Poole which employs 1400 people, 60% of them non UK citizens from 58 countries. Just about all will be low paid jobs where there is not a local supply of labour. It is this type of migration of people from low living standard countries to achieve a higher standard of personal living that impacts on the working class voters who switched from Labour to UKIP and voted Leave.

On the other hand the knowledge economy requires freedom of movement for knowledge workers. The challenge for our negotiators is devising an immigration policy that facilitates the movement of knowledge workers but limits the mass movement of low paid workers. Beneath the bluster, if you listened to Boris, that is exactly what he was saying - just did not have a plan of to achieve it.

You mean attracts, surely ?

 

[Euphonyx]

I'm off. Its been an interesting discussion. A good mixture of opinion, fact, nostalgia, self confidence, scarediness and a sprinkling of realism here and there. Interesting times. I hope no one gets hurt. Lets see

 

[rotrax]

You mean attracts, surely ?

No, I believe facilitates is correct.

It will be the salaries that do the attracting...........................

 

[VO5]

No, I believe facilitates is correct.

It will be the salaries that do the attracting...........................

No, because the cluster is portable, the salaries are inconsequential, but the choice of lifestyle as a priority has become the most important consideration.

 

[rotrax]

No, because the cluster is portable, the salaries are inconsequential, but the choice of lifestyle as a priority has become the most important consideration.

Salaries are inconsequential? Get real-the money is ALWAYS important!

Not necessarily the most important part of a job, but never inconsequential.

 

[GrahamM376]

post deleted

 

[VO5]

Salaries are inconsequential? Get real-the money is ALWAYS important!

Not necessarily the most important part of a job, but never inconsequential.

When you become a specialist, and additionally you are an undisputed expert in your chosen field, you can choose.
If you are none of these you have to resign yourself and hope to be chosen, is the difference.

 

[rotrax]

When you become a specialist, and additionally you are an undisputed expert in your chosen field, you can choose.
If you are none of these you have to resign yourself and hope to be chosen, is the difference.

Not true-I have personal experience of highly skilled specialists, experts in their field whose work opertunities dissapeared when electronic technology took over from mechanical machines.

In the post we are disscussing we disagreed on " attracts " and " facilitates "

I was under the immpression that if we leave the EU and do not have to accept anyone from the EU into the UK if we dont wish to have them here, a method of facilitating the entry of those we do want would be advantageous.

Most of our current immigration problems have been with the attractiveness of the UK as a workplace for unskilled EU workers.

So, it appears attracting is not the issue............................

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

I am reading with interest the well written and eloquent scripts by some here; however, the arguments for Brexit are substantiated based on theory and assumptions but no reality. The reality is that contracts that we are awarding now have gone up by at least 20%, so we have budgeted for a contract and now we have to pay a few more £millions; obviously, the taxpayers are paying the difference; this is reality, now. Next, (couple of months ??) will be the food going up.

 

[halcyon]

Not true-I have personal experience of highly skilled specialists, experts in their field whose work opertunities dissapeared when electronic technology took over from mechanical machines.

Who do you think the original highly skilled specialist was, the mechanical engineers, we did not have electronic engineers as electronics did not exist. Back in the 50's and 60's it was all new, remember Raymond Baxter on Tomorrows world, coming on with a transistor, then with a pin saying look 100 transistors on that pin head, this match box has a computer inside. That was not from Japan but UK, mechanical engineers then had to work out how to use them, thus growing the industry. We had no computer programmers, if we wanted engineering programmes you wrote your own and the computer lads typed it and pressed the button.

Our biggest problem today, the obsession in training people, not developing natural talent.

Brian

 

[BERT T]

Not true-I have personal experience of highly skilled specialists, experts in their field whose work opertunities dissapeared when electronic technology took over from mechanical machines.

In the post we are disscussing we disagreed on " attracts " and " facilitates "

I was under the immpression that if we leave the EU and do not have to accept anyone from the EU into the UK if we dont wish to have them here, a method of facilitating the entry of those we do want would be advantageous.

Most of our current immigration problems have been with the attractiveness of the UK as a workplace for unskilled EU workers.

So, it appears attracting is not the issue............................

EXACTLY THE PROBLEM.

 

[Daydream believer]

I am reading with interest the well written and eloquent scripts by some here; however, the arguments for Brexit are substantiated based on theory and assumptions but no reality. The reality is that contracts that we are awarding now have gone up by at least 20%, so we have budgeted for a contract and now we have to pay a few more £millions; obviously, the taxpayers are paying the difference; this is reality, now. Next, (couple of months ??) will be the food going up.

But we have not left the EU yet.
The falling £ is just market imbalance caused by currency traders making a quick buck. It was over valued anyway, so needed to fall.
If the £ stays weak we might even be able to start producing the things you want cheaper at home instead of overseas so although they may be more expensive they will be home produced & that must be better as it will encourage our own industries to have a better base for future export. So I see a weak £ as having as many advantages as disadvantages

As for food; farmers would produce more at home once the EU subsidy to let fields lie fallow is removed & once again home grown produce has to be better for the UK as a whole

 

[CAPTAIN FANTASTIC]

As predicted, Theresa May is the new PM; although she publicly agreed to Brexit, I am certain that she will change her tune as time goes by. In the meantime, the economy is draining and the impact will become apparent in a couple of years time.

It will interesting to see how well the British yacht industry will perform in the near future, bearing in mind that Italy builds 50% of all superyachts, the balance is met mainly by France and Germany.