How much longer will sales of boats with internal combustion engines be allowed?

[siwhi]

Things will accelerate when battery prices fall to the point that it's worth having lots of solar panels and storing your own power, and when grid level storage by battery or hydrogen is economic.

I agree - things will accelerate. Even today a stand alone solar PV system on your house (ie without battery) is a strong investment for many people, (depending of course of your circumstances) especially compared to poor rates of return elsewhere. If you look at the ROI compared to other investments you might be tempted to flog a few shares to get some panels.

PVCalc - The Return (ROI) Calculator for PV solar energy investments | PVCalc.org

Global Solar Atlas

Are Solar Panels Worth It in 2020? Yes, Solar Power Costs around 8p/kWh!

As regards batteries, (both domestic, vehicle and at grid level) yes, when prices fall it will change things. We're not far off (probably just a few months) from domestic batteries being able to pay their way over the longer term. On a grid level development is progressing fast, as an example:

Green battery plant awarded £10m grant

 

[Laser310]

It is all possible, quite affordable, and actually being done at pace at the moment.

It's all so convenient - a quango (with strongly held policy and political and positions) contracts a university research group (with strongly held policy and political positions).., and surprise of surprises.., the report endorses their previously-held policy positions!

Everyone should be a little bit sceptical about this type of report - they are not necessarily wrong.., but the notion that because of it, we can all just think "oh, that's covered then.., no need to worry" is a bit naive. I still believe there will be massive costs associated with decarbonization. The guns or butter constraint always applies: to have more decarbonization, we will need to accept less of something else.

Without reading the report in full.., they appear to be talking about putting heat pumps in millions of existing buildings... whatever cost they attribute to this, you can probably multiply by 5, and still be too low.

I have an acquaintance with a heat pump in his 2nd home- he has loads of hedge fund money, and wanted to be "green".., he doesn't open the house in the winter - it's a cold location in winter, and i don't know that the heat pump would manage.

 

[TernVI]

....
Are Solar Panels Worth It in 2020? Yes, Solar Power Costs around 8p/kWh!
...

Lots of questionable maths in there!
Assuming that the input tarrif will stay constant for 25 years in the face of ever more solar installations for starters.

My electricity bill is about £500 a year, of which a lot is used in the evening.
Last time I looked, the price of a 4kW system was still dropping by about £400 a year, so I can save more by waiting.

If solar gets any cheaper, people will have to realise that the value of electricity is largely tied up in the fact that it's there on demand 24/7. Generating it whenever the sun happens to shine will be worth less and less.

 

[JumbleDuck]

If solar gets any cheaper, people will have to realise that the value of electricity is largely tied up in the fact that it's there on demand 24/7. Generating it whenever the sun happens to shine will be worth less and less.

The killer with renewables is the need to store. It seems to be generally accepted that a country running wholly on wind and solar needs a week's storage because overcast and calm weeks are not unknown. Last time I check the UK's total storage - Cruachan and Dinorwig - was about 23 seconds of peak use, so we've a bit of a shortfall there. Tidal looks a better bet from that point of view.

 

[Laser310]

The killer with renewables is the need to store. It seems to be generally accepted that a country running wholly on wind and solar needs a week's storage because overcast and calm weeks are not unknown. Last time I check the UK's total storage - Cruachan and Dinorwig - was about 23 seconds of peak use, so we've a bit of a shortfall there. Tidal looks a better bet from that point of view.

23 seconds of _current_ peak use...

once we decarbonize heat and transport, peak use will be many times what it is now.., so the storage problem is much greater than even that.

One should assume there will not be storage on anything approaching the scale needed.

there is only one carbon free solution to shortages caused by high peak demand, or just weather not conducive to generation: rationing

Rationing can either be by price: temporarily make the electricity expensive enough that demand falls and meets supply..,

or, selective black outs and brown outs

from an economic efficiency standpoint, price rationing is more efficient.., but, if we end up in that situation, there will probably be a mix of both price adjustment and supply interruption

 

[JumbleDuck]

23 seconds of _current_ peak use...

once we decarbonize heat and transport, peak use will be many times what it is now.., so the storage problem is much greater than even that.

One should assume there will not be storage on anything approaching the scale needed.

Yup. Many years ago I worked in a superconductiong magnet research group and there was interest in using big magnets as power stores. However, even if there was enough niobium and helium, the amoung of energy to be stored is staggering and in the event of any sort of mishap, staggeringly dangerous. You really, really don't want a plane to crash on something containing a week's output from a power station (unless it's a big lake). And so the idea died.

 

[grandpaboat]

Do you see the sort of statement from the government about banning the sale of ICE cars as any sort of threat to your type of boating?

How long would it take a reasonable sized solar array to charge a battery that would be good for say 5 hours at 4 knots on your boat?

I fitted a 120 watt solar panel three years ago. So far the regulator records it has put 62 kWh of charge into my batteries. That would provide enough power to replace my diesel engine for one hour. So to get 10 hours of engine power over three years I would require 10 panels. I have actually run my engine for over 200 hours over the last three years and I prefer to sail more than motor. And to get 200 hours I would require 200 X 120watt panels. This would require solar panels of about three times my available deck space.
I really believe the technology isn't there yet.

 

[Stemar]

from an economic efficiency standpoint, price rationing is more efficient.

Unless you're struggling to pay the bill already.

 

[st599]

Yachting journalist Jimmy Cornell is starting a circumnavigation on a boat with only electric power.

Will be interesting to watch.

 

[Zing]

Yachting journalist Jimmy Cornell is starting a circumnavigation on a boat with only electric power.

Will be interesting to watch.

They were doing that routinely well over a hundred years ago, except they didn’t even have an electric auxiliary engine. I think he will manage it.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Yachting journalist Jimmy Cornell is starting a circumnavigation on a boat with only electric power.

No sails then?

 

[Frogmogman]

For those who haven't already seen them, these videos about the renovation and conversion (including electric propulsion) of a catamaran called Top Secret may be interesting.

I'm filled with admiration for the owner of this boat, and the amazing job that he has done on it. In part 2 (starting at about 14 mins) he talks about the practicalities of electric propulsion (the boat does have 2 DC gensets).

In response to the points made about the difficulties of being able to produce enough power, yes it is a very large and beamy catamaran, with plenty of space for a huge solar array; I'm not suggesting that it would be practicable on a Contessa 26.

 

[PhillM]

Here is the answer .... build more wind farms. Add pontoons and charging points... we could stop off for a quick recharge ?

 

[rotrax]

Yachting journalist Jimmy Cornell is starting a circumnavigation on a boat with only electric power.

Will be interesting to watch.

No, he is sailing on a circumnavigation, ergo the SAILS drive the boat. The other enery producers will provide propulsion and electrical power. Slocum did it with a two dollar alarm clock and paraffin.

 

[[165264]]

The main effect of this policy on boating will be through a dramatic reduction in disposable income - fewer people will be able to afford boats.

The cost of electrification of the nation will be enormous. It's not just the expense of buying electric automobiles. Not only will we need greatly increased generation - to replace fossil fuels used for transport and heat.., but the entire distribution grid will need to be replaced or supplemented - from the source to each house, each flat, each office...

perfectly good infrastructure - natural gas lines - that might be expected to last many years will be abandoned. It might even need to be removed...

gas heat alone uses twice the energy of the the nations current electricity production. Transport is another multiple of current electricity production.

to decarbonize, we are looking at producing perhaps 5X the current electricity production

Electricity is already expensive - how much money is the average person going to have left after heating their homes with electricity?

\i dunno but ask the French. They do it already. That's why they are 90% nuclear. Maybe subsidized?

 

[Laminar Flow]

No, he is sailing on a circumnavigation, ergo the SAILS drive the boat. The other enery producers will provide propulsion and electrical power. Slocum did it with a two dollar alarm clock and paraffin.

Yes, indeed. Shame about the parafin though and the non-skid using carpet tacks - all very non PC, you know.

 

[Mudisox]

\i dunno but ask the French. They do it already. That's why they are 90% nuclear. Maybe subsidized?

Every time I go up the Rance from St Malo, I wonder why we don't do the same over the Severn and replace the bridges. Locals still get almost free electricity, and the estuary is full of wildlife with plenty of variety.

 

[Stemar]

Every time I go up the Rance from St Malo, I wonder why we don't do the same over the Severn and replace the bridges. Locals still get almost free electricity, and the estuary is full of wildlife with plenty of variety.

I understand there are some severe problems with silting up behind the dam. It isn't a perfect system by any means.

 

[knuterikt]

If you can get into a charging point ......


Tesla Drivers Stranded In Half-Mile-Long Queue To Charge Cars
"As an indication of the task facing us he quotes a couple of Norwegian statistics. "There are 200,000 EVs in Norway. There are 12,000 charging points. But still there are queues. There are not nearly enough for 200,000 EVs."
If that is not a wake-up call about the scope of investment needed then nothing is. "

Electric vehicle wake-up call: Norway has 12,000 charging points - and still there are queues

.

The Toyota man is biased as .. Toyota has not been selling EV’s in Norway at all, they have actively been talking down EV’s and trying to sell “self charging cars” Aka non plugin hybrids.
Even this summer where most have their summer holidays in Norway the charging stations have been without the long queues.

 

[Refueler]

Engines on boats ??

I think when it comes to internal engines - especially sail boats ............ compare the age of engines to that of car ownership.

Many boaters keep their engines for 20 -- 30years or so ... not like their cars ...

My engine is roughly 17 - 18yrs with me ... and a late 50's vintage !!