Gawd, Force 10 again!

[yotter]

My boat is over the hill at Craobh, and I use XC weather, (although I have recently installed Predict Wind on my phone) so wonder what the panel's view is of this. I need to get the boat back around the mull to the Clyde, but with a gale every 2 days its proving tricky! I do like the soft tones of Stornoway CG

 

[[2574]]

My boat is over the hill at Craobh, and I use XC weather, (although I have recently installed Predict Wind on my phone) so wonder what the panel's view is of this. I need to get the boat back around the mull to the Clyde, but with a gale every 2 days its proving tricky! I do like the soft tones of Stornoway CG

We bashed our way back around the MoK on 6th November 2020 after having endured sleepless nights and relentless strong winds whilst chewing the fingernails down at Gigha. I wouldn’t say it was a fun trip……

 

[yotter]

I am hoping for a nice high pressure to appear over the horizon....

 

[Sandy]

I do love this version

 

[Sandy]

Another favorite.

 

[franksingleton]

Can I, yet again, point out that all these automated forecasts are from the same sources. Windy.com, Ventusky and WeatherTrack all have ECMWF, GFS, ICON with some other options. Remember that ECMWF runs its model two hours later than GFS and three later than ICON. Arrival times can be even later. My experience, English Channel and Brittany, was that there is little difference between models for the first 2 or 3 days. Mostly, each was within a few knots of the others ie within the uncertainty range. Beyond 4 or 5 days, I put more faith in ECMWF but I never trust the longer period forecasts unless I see consistency from day to day. Differences between successive days’ forecast implies uncertainty.

 

[Resolution]

Another favorite.

View attachment 143952

Thank you for that , Sandy. My Shetland in-laws arrived down in Sussex last night and have been commenting on how hot it is here. I note that all the bedroom windows have been flung wide open, as usual for them!

 

[dslittle]

Can I, yet again, point out that all these automated forecasts are from the same sources. Windy.com, Ventusky and WeatherTrack all have ECMWF, GFS, ICON with some other options. Remember that ECMWF runs its model two hours later than GFS and three later than ICON. Arrival times can be even later. My experience, English Channel and Brittany, was that there is little difference between models for the first 2 or 3 days. Mostly, each was within a few knots of the others ie within the uncertainty range. Beyond 4 or 5 days, I put more faith in ECMWF but I never trust the longer period forecasts unless I see consistency from day to day. Differences between successive days’ forecast implies uncertainty.

We use MeteoConsult, The forecasts are generally very good for the near future as stated above and they do state the percentage accuracy of the forecast, in the top right hand corner, as well which is very helpful.

The other useful tool is PredictWind which gives us the ability to ‘track’ depressions coming across the Atlantic and the associated predicted wind strengths, pictorially.

All very useful for me as a layman!!!

 

[Bristolfashion]

Yep, it just depends a bit on how one likes the data presented - the wind maps in Windy are very pretty!

 

[Bristolfashion]

My boat is over the hill at Craobh, and I use XC weather, (although I have recently installed Predict Wind on my phone) so wonder what the panel's view is of this. I need to get the boat back around the mull to the Clyde, but with a gale every 2 days its proving tricky! I do like the soft tones of Stornoway CG

I feel your pain - it's a bit relentless at the moment.

 

[franksingleton]

I can see that the add-ons are useful as is presentation. I am trying to point out that there is no need to pay for forecasts. MeteoConsult, as far as I can see, is the GFS. PW does offer the Met Office GRIB output which I would like to have available although I doubt that I would get a measurably better service. You can, of course, see UK computer output for the English Channel on the Jersey Met site.

 

[Mister E]

Another favorite.

View attachment 143952

That is brilliant thanks.

 

[Frogmogman]

Dead calm in the South of France

……except when it’s blowing old boots !!

 

[Concerto]

I feel your pain - it's a bit relentless at the moment.

Glad I am back down south now. Certainly had my fair share of high winds in Scotland earlier this year.

 

[johnalison]

Glad I am back down south now. Certainly had my fair share of high winds in Scotland earlier this year.

All the photos I ever see from Scotland show boats anchored among rocky islands with a glassy flat sea. Don't tell me that this isn't always true.

The furthest north we ever went was up the Bohuslan coast of Sweden and it never blew less than F5 day or night for four weeks, and to give it its due, not much more either.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

The furthest north we ever went was up the Bohuslan coast of Sweden and it never blew less than F5 day or night for four weeks, and to give it its due, not much more either.

The YouTube channel by Norwegian Erik Aanderaais is amusing to watch as he sails around the northern North Sea on his own in grim weather.

 

[Crowblack]

I have actually gone back to the met office forecast - it has the right degree of "round about this sort of wind" about it. All those rows of precise figures or colourful wind maps are lovely, but the soothing tones of Stornoway coastguard giving the inshore waters forecast, a peek at the clouds, regard for what the locals are doing or saying, wind direction, currents and protection from the land do it for me.

Aaaah the soft dulcet tones of "Stornaway Lil" announcing the "hinshure foorcast"- - - used to stir the emotions of a singlehanded sailor, highlight of the day.

 

[Slowboat35]

I do admit to getting thoroughly pissed off with smug, dishonest snipers who continue to rubbish poor Michael Fish, an utter Professional whose forecast on that notorious day was 100% that's one hundred percent accurate and correct.
They are never honest enough to admit that he did forecast exceptionally strong winds immediately before the clip they always show which merely demonstrates, nay proves both their duplicity as well as their total ignorance of met matters.
To these shameful people I repeat, Michael Fish responded to a woman who said she'd heard there was a hurricane coming. Micheal responded that that he could assure her there wasn't. He was 100% correct. There was no more a hurricane coming than a herd of elephants or a runaway train.
A Hurricane is defined - by a meteorologist, as tropical rotating storm and is a physical impossibility in the NW Atlantic. As he had already forcast extreme winds he clearly did not see the need to reiterate that, and replied accurately to the question. Had the woman asked if "hurricane force" winds were a possibility - an entirely different question, there is no doubt she'd have receieved an entirely different answer.
An analogy would be someone asking if a nuclear explosion was coming from Chernobyl and the responder being rubbished for saying no but failing to see the need to reiterate the radiation warning he'd given immediately prior...
Thus was the reputation of a consummate Professional wrecked by the sheer ignorance and then vengeance of an uninformed, if not downright ignorant media and the public
A national disgrace.

 

[RunAgroundHard]

Just shows you that Michael Fish was incapable of interpreting what the woman meant. Professional failure from a public servant charged with offering weather advice.
Honestly, take a funny comment, which everyone knows it is, then rev your pedantry motor to full chat, just to stall and look daft. And we all know that the French got it right.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

To these shameful people I repeat, Michael Fish responded to a woman who said she'd heard there was a hurricane coming. Micheal responded that that he could assure her there wasn't. He was 100% correct.

There's more to the story than that. He wasn't talking about the UK at all, he was referring to hurricane Floyd approaching Florida that had been reported in the news before his forecast. And there was no woman who rang the BBC - it was the mother of a colleague at the BBC who was about to go to Florida on holiday. The UK winds that he did forecast were less than what occurred, but that was not his fault personally but the limitations of weather forecasting at the time.

The Michael Fish effect lives on today where the Met Office forecasts the worst likely weather rather than the most likely.