Gawd, Force 10 again!

[Juan Twothree]

The UK winds that he did forecast were less than what occurred, but that was not his fault personally but the limitations of weather forecasting at the time

I seem to remember that the low didn't take the track that it was expected to.

As you say, it was a long time ago now.

 

[Bristolfashion]

I seem to remember that the low didn't take the track that it was expected to.

As you say, it was a long time ago now.

Yes, I don't think it will fall under the ban on Current Affairs!

 

[johnalison]

I seem to remember that the low didn't take the track that it was expected to.

As you say, it was a long time ago now.

As far as I recall, the severe wind was included in the forecast, which I watched at the time, but its course was predicted to be further south across northern France. I also remember thinking or saying, ‘but what if it turns north?’, though I may be flattering myself a little. The next thing I remember was waking at 4am and seeing a mature tree in our garden bent almost to a tight angle by the wind.

 

[capnsensible]

I'm sitting here in Ardfern feeling quite glad that we've finished our cruise - for the second time in less than a week the inshore forecast is warning of possible force 10 - I'm not sure I've even seen that before.

It's a bit squeaky when the wind is S. and we're blown on, but pretty comfy with a bit of West - particularly now I've sorted our creaky rope!

Stay safe everyone.

Don't forget to put a reef in your courtesy flag.

 

[Bristolfashion]

Don't forget to put a reef in your courtesy flag.

My Scottish courtesy flag has "auto reefed" this season - it's been thrashed threadbare by the wind!

 

[franksingleton]

1987, 35 years ago is a different world meteorologically. It is highly unlikely, maybe not impossible, for such an error today. At that time, they were using a detailed model with an early data cut off and a global model with a later cut off.

Before briefing Mike Fish the senior forecaster at Bracknell had the last global forecast which had strong winds over the UK. Then with a short time to go the early cut off model, using later data, arrived with the strongest winds further south. On recent runs, the early cut off run had been out-performing the other. He had to make a quick decision and got it wrong.


The BBC kept showing the clip just stopping just before Mike Fish said, “But, it will be very windy.” The Met Office complained but the BBC would only say, “Why spoil a good story.” It was very nearly a good forecast.

Current models would have done a far better job although whether they would have got the extreme winds strengths I cannot say. Probably not although they would have given much better guidance.


The real problem was that there was some very moist, warm air, probably the remains of a hurricane. The observational techniques then available did not pick up the moist air well enough. Currently satellite soundings would have done better. Coupled with better modelling it would have been a different story.

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

I do admit to getting thoroughly pissed off with smug, dishonest snipers who continue to rubbish poor Michael Fish, an utter Professional whose forecast on that notorious day was 100% that's one hundred percent accurate and correct.
They are never honest enough to admit that he did forecast exceptionally strong winds immediately before the clip they always show which merely demonstrates, nay proves both their duplicity as well as their total ignorance of met matters.
To these shameful people I repeat, Michael Fish responded to a woman who said she'd heard there was a hurricane coming. Micheal responded that that he could assure her there wasn't. He was 100% correct. There was no more a hurricane coming than a herd of elephants or a runaway train.
A Hurricane is defined - by a meteorologist, as tropical rotating storm and is a physical impossibility in the NW Atlantic. As he had already forcast extreme winds he clearly did not see the need to reiterate that, and replied accurately to the question. Had the woman asked if "hurricane force" winds were a possibility - an entirely different question, there is no doubt she'd have receieved an entirely different answer.
An analogy would be someone asking if a nuclear explosion was coming from Chernobyl and the responder being rubbished for saying no but failing to see the need to reiterate the radiation warning he'd given immediately prior...
Thus was the reputation of a consummate Professional wrecked by the sheer ignorance and then vengeance of an uninformed, if not downright ignorant media and the public
A national disgrace.

The whole episode and its consequences is testament to the pervasive influence that the tabloid press has had on life in Britain during the last 50, or so, years. (As viewed from an island further west!)

 

[creeks]

The real problem was that there was some very moist, warm air, probably the remains of a hurricane.

I clearly remember putting out the empty milk bottles at about 11 p.m. that night and being, if not amazed, very surprised by the warmth of the wind which was coming from the south. I've never felt a wind as warm as that in the U.K. before or since. I then slept through the whole thing and wondered why some trees had fallen down when I drove to work next morning.

 

[johnalison]

I clearly remember putting out the empty milk bottles at about 11 p.m. that night and being, if not amazed, very surprised by the warmth of the wind which was coming from the south. I've never felt a wind as warm as that in the U.K. before or since. I then slept through the whole thing and wondered why some trees had fallen down when I drove to work next morning.

I don’t remember the wind being warm. In subsequent days we saw whole swathes of trees flattened, but in the morning my chief memory is of the roads being covered with greenery from small branches and twigs. It was like driving on a green carpet, though my way to one place of work, a school, was blocked by a fallen tree and I had to give them a miss.

 

[franksingleton]

I clearly remember putting out the empty milk bottles at about 11 p.m. that night and being, if not amazed, very surprised by the warmth of the wind which was coming from the south. I've never felt a wind as warm as that in the U.K. before or since. I then slept through the whole thing and wondered why some trees had fallen down when I drove to work next morning.

I cannot recollect the warm air at the surface. I was referring to warm, moist air at mid levels.

 

[creeks]

My memory has not deceived me - this is from the RMetS website:

"High wind speeds were not the only remarkable aspect of the storm—it was preceded by some spectacular temperature rises and was followed by record breaking increases in pressure. As the storm’s warm front passed over England on the evening of 15th October ahead of the high winds, the temperature at Heathrow Airport rose from 8°C at 6pm to 17°C at 9pm. At Mortimer, in Berkshire, the temperature rose by almost 8°C in just 20 minutes from 10:20pm, while hourly increases of more than 6°C were experienced in numerous locations south of a line that stretched all the way from Dorset to Norfolk."

 

[franksingleton]

My memory has not deceived me - this is from the RMetS website:

"High wind speeds were not the only remarkable aspect of the storm—it was preceded by some spectacular temperature rises and was followed by record breaking increases in pressure. As the storm’s warm front passed over England on the evening of 15th October ahead of the high winds, the temperature at Heathrow Airport rose from 8°C at 6pm to 17°C at 9pm. At Mortimer, in Berkshire, the temperature rose by almost 8°C in just 20 minutes from 10:20pm, while hourly increases of more than 6°C were experienced in numerous locations south of a line that stretched all the way from Dorset to Norfolk."

Thank you, I had forgotten the surface temperature effects. Obviously, the wind was the big story.

 

[davidej]

My Scottish courtesy flag has "auto reefed" this season - it's been thrashed threadbare by the wind!

Interesting because our boat has been in Western Scotland most of the summer and had more problems with light to nonexistent winds than strong ones.

 

[Bristolfashion]

Interesting because our boat has been in Western Scotland most of the summer and had more problems with light to nonexistent winds than strong ones.

We did Newcastle, Orkney, Shetland, Orkney and then around cape wrath. We didn't really get light wind problems until we got south to Skye and into September.