First hurricane possible for the Caribbean

[geem]

Looks like the season is hotting up already. Barbados and Grenadines going to get a hit by the looks of it

 

[Frogmogman]

Looks like the season is hotting up already. Barbados and Grenadines going to get a hit by the looks of it

Batten down the hatches @Bajansailor.

Let’s hope Beryl doesn’t give you too much of a battering

 

[RupertW]

Our boat is in St Lucia. I’m a little less worried now than I was 24 hours ago as it looks like it will pass through the Grenadines and passing to the South means that the strong winds and waves will come from the prevailing wind side rather than the much more damaging sheltered side with all the bays and harbours.
But still time for more change.
I just always thought if I did lose my last boat to a hurricane it would be to Hurricane Thor, or Gargantua or something, not Beryl.

 

[noelex]

The forecast from NOAA suggests a strong Cat 2 hurricane only 1 knot less than a major hurricane.
Scary.
There is also a second system behind Beryl.
I hope everyone is safe.

 

[noelex]

Beryl is now forecast to turn into a major hurricane just before it hits the Windward islands.

 

[geem]

Mass exodus of boats heading south

 

[noelex]

Mass exodus of boats heading south

Moving to Grenada is usually a smart move, and is reasonably safe, but this system is unusually a long way south. At this stage probability for sustained 64 knot winds or greater is a concerning 22% for Grenada, according to NOAA. See the table below.

Some of the boats may be planning to head further south to Trinidad where the chance of 64+ knots drops to 1%

However, I am no expert on hurricane tactics for the Caribbean. I am sure members with more experience will have better thoughts.

 

[capnsensible]

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/tropical-storm-beryl

Invest 94L not far behind.

 

[geem]

Moving to Grenada is usually a smart move, and is reasonably safe, but this system is unusually a long way south. At this stage probability for sustained 64 knot winds or greater is a concerning 22% for Grenada, according to NOAA. See the table below.

Some of the boats may be heading further south to Trinidad where the chance of 64+ knots drops to 1%

However, I am no expert on hurricane tactics for the Caribbean. I am sure other members with more experience can better contribute.
View attachment 179223

I guess a lot will stop over night in Grenada and if they have any sense, carry on to Trinidad tomorrow.
There are so many cruisers in Grenada for the summer who are complacent. We were out at an OCC dinner last summer. One guy said they had a "hurricane" mooring for the summer. I asked what that meant. He said it was hurricane proof. I then tried to educate him about the reality of a major hurricane. We saw the aftermath of Ivan in 2004. Police shooting looters, boats smashed to bit in boatyards, no rooves on houses, churches, supermarkets. No food. No water. A very edgy place to be at the time.
50ft cats cartwheeled across Prickly Bay. Total devastation. Cruisers were loading up with food, water and emergency supplies and sailing between Trinidad and Grenada trying to help out. It was bad

 

[noelex]

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/tropical-storm-beryl

Invest 94L not far behind.

If you mean the system behind Beryl, I agree this also needs watching by vessels in the Lesser Antilles. It is forecast to be "only" a tropical storm or depression when it hits the islands, but the forecast is a long way out. Unfortunately, it is likely to hit the same islands as Beryl creating the possibility of back to back storms.

One small correction, this system is not a designated area of investigation at this stage, but is likely to become AL96. AL94 is over the Yucatan peninsula.

 

[capnsensible]

If you mean the system behind Beryl, I agree this also needs watching by vessels in the Lesser Antilles. It is forecast to be "only" a tropical storm or depression when it hits the islands, but the forecast is a long way out. Unfortunately, it is likely to hit the same islands as Beryl creating the possibility of back to back storms.

One small correction, this system is not a designated area of investigation at this stage, but is likely to become AL96. AL94 is over the Yucatan peninsula.

Wunderground believes it is 94L. But not important, how it develops is.

Stay safe, all who they may affect. Especially Bajansailor!

 

[noelex]

But not important, how it develops is.

.

 

[noelex]

Many of the videos posted on YouTube are sensationalised, but below is a link to a recent video posted by the official government body NOAA/NHC:

One of the other (in my view) sensible, but independent contributors is:

 

[noelex]

Unfortunately, the current forecast is predicting Beryl will be even stronger than previously suggested when it hits the windward islands.
From NOAA:

"Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding,
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. "

 

[noelex]

The intensity of a hurricane is always more difficult to forecast than the track.

However, these are the best models of the likely intensity of Beryl. At this stage the system is around 36 hrs from hitting the windward islands.

 

[geem]

I notice a lot of boats heading south to Trini but so many thinking they will be safe on the south coast of Grenada. The predicted track is a nats whisker away from causing real havoc on the south coast of Grenada yet cruisers there behave like lemmings and fill the anchorages. Even strong winds only needs a few boats to drag and the impact across those bays with tangled anchor chains, boats dragging through the mooring field, etc can cause plenty of damage. We simply would not be there but head south to Trini
People with boats ashore in Carriacou must be very concerned. The big yard there is very exposed. I wish them well. They roll the dice leaving boats in the bowling alley.

 

[Roberto]

NHC Advisory, Hurrican warning for Grenada, SVG etc, TS Warning/Watch for islands around these.


...BERYL GETTING STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

 

[capnsensible]

Sadly it looks like Invest 96L will intensify into a named storm on a similar track. So just a couple of days after being whacked by Beryl, the second one may arrive. That's gonna be tough to deal with on islands already damaged...

 

[geem]

NOAA just upgraded Beryl to predicted CAT 4 when it hits the islands! Trying to get friends anchored in Prickly Bay to leave. They see all these boat there so think it will be OK. They have no idea of the risk they are taking. The storm has near perfect environmental conditions for rapid growth. Anybody there needs to leave now whilst they have the chance

 

[Roberto]

The name Beryl sounded familiar, there has already been one called the same in 2012 (chart received by fax)