Damaged Russian ship with cargo of explosive fertiliser anchored off Margate.

oldmanofthehills said:
On its own it can only be set off by high explosive - breaking up wet solidified ammonium nitrate with dynamite destroyed a large part of some town

If it mixed with fuel and ignited it could go up but no one is so mixing it or igniting it. So Margate can relax.

Sheerness is another matter as the ammo ship has primer detonators on board
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oldmanofthehills said:
AN needs high temperature or shock to set it off. I certainly read the post before mine and rechecked my chemists remembrance. I fail to see how a normal cargo ships cargo could suffer serious percussive shock or high temperature without an extreme event.

Beirut bang was due to major fire or high temperature

Enlighten me more if you would care to
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I'm glad you've now done some reading/internet searching, even you can probably comprehend that a fire leading to a high temperature is a rather different matter (and rather more likely cause of unintended detonation) to needing High Explosive.
 
PWLS08 said:
I'm glad you've now done some reading/internet searching, even you can probably comprehend that a fire leading to a high temperature is a rather different matter (and rather more likely cause of unintended detonation) to needing High Explosive.
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I have only done reading to confirm my memory, though the potential was strongly drilled into when considering chemical safety. No spontaneous explosions at near room temperature - unlike nitrogen ti-iodide and the various acetone peroxides favoured by suicide bombers - but it will go of in an extreme fire. However the russian ship is not on fire so presents little more risk than many of the other bulk carriers of ammonium nitrate
 
I have put this list together from memory with the aid of common references, its only a list of cargo explosions in ports because they are known in my industry:

Some ammonium nitrate cargo explosions in ports:

The Texas City Disaster, starting on board the SS “Grandcamp” but spreading to other ships and shore installations in 1947:

Texas City disaster - Wikipedia

The explosion of the SS « Ocean Liberty » at Brest, also 1947:

En 1947, le nitrate d’ammonium impliqué dans une explosion meurtrière au port de Brest

The Tianjin Disaster, 2015:

2015 Tianjin explosions - Wikipedia

and of course Beirut:

2020 Beirut explosion - Wikipedia

Tianjin seems to have been forgotten.
 
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oldmanofthehills said:
Shall we just cower and wait for the end?
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Up to you, but Brazil alone imported over 1.3 million tons of ammonium nitrate in 2023, and none of it exploded…😉

In support of your position, all the cargo explosions involving ammonium nitrate that I can think of took place after a fire had been burning for some time.

Cargoes of high explosives can produce bigger disasters. The SS “Fort Stikine” in Bombay, in 1944, caused by bales of cotton being loaded below drums of lubricating oil in a Liberty ship with a thousand tons of munitions on board was caused by best quality British bureaucratic incompetence and bullying. The 1917 explosion in Halifax Nova Scotia was another one.
 
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WindyWindyWindy said:
Yeah, badly maintained cargo ships undergoing significant engine repairs at sea aren't a fire risk at all..

Similarly thousands of tonnes of ship crashing into rocks wouldn't result in heavy impacts on the cargo.
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Big fire or high speed collision doesnt seem statistically very likely. Risk = likelyhood times consequence. No doubt CG are keeping an eye on things. But Margate has worse problems to worry about
 
Update for those who are interested...

After re-anchoring a few days ago outside the UK limit, Ruby is now on her way, heading NE in the North Hinder South TSS. Accompanied by the tug CMS Thunderer.
 
Apparently "Sir Roger Gale, MP for Herne Bay and Sandwich, after meeting with Shipping Minister Mike Kane last week, stated that the cargo is safe. “I do not believe my constituents face any threat to their security as a result of the presence of this vessel eleven miles off the North Kent coast,” he wrote on X."

I guess he is even happier now it has moved to Gt Yarmouth. I don't think Rupert Lowe [MP for Gt Yarmouth, Reform UK] has commented.
 
Reported on BBC look East last night, cargo to be transferred to another ship, due to arrive on Wednesday. They reported that the cargo is in bags, not loose, making the transfer safe and the port of Gt Yarmouth stated they are experienced in handling dangerous cargos.
 
While a ship in poor condition with a goodly amount of potentially explosive stuff on board make for a good panic, and we're all gonna die headlines, it's worth remembering that the stuff is transported regularly without incident, most of it on ships carrying flags of convenience, and ships break down all the time too.

If it'd come into Southampton, I wouldn't be making plans to move onto Jazzcat in Gosport.
 
Stemar said:
While a ship in poor condition with a goodly amount of potentially explosive stuff on board make for a good panic, and we're all gonna die headlines, it's worth remembering that the stuff is transported regularly without incident, most of it on ships carrying flags of convenience, and ships break down all the time too.

If it'd come into Southampton, I wouldn't be making plans to move onto Jazzcat in Gosport.
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But would you want to have a berth close to it.
 
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