Anger at boats anchoring overnight

[PeterWright]

Watch the death rate, not the covid death rate, it tells a truer story.

I agree that the death rate is the number worth watching, death is a pretty hard and clear fact which is relatively easy to measure. However, it's not so easy to ascribe the cause of death, so there are various definitions of Coronavirus as the cause. For some time, the government stuck with death of a person who had previously tested positive for the virus, but this discounted many in care homes who passed away before anyone got round to testing them. The favourite ow seems to be any death where Coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate, but doctors have a deal of latitude in completion of death certificates so this definition is not fully consistent. A very interesting number to lok at is the number of excess deaths compared to the average at the same time of year over the past 10 years - this number of excess deaths is greater than either of the other two definitions I have referred to. If the cause is not the Coronavirus, I would like to know what it is.

While I'm here, the other thing that I find extremely irritating is reading daily of total number of deaths in various countries without reference to the population ofthose countries. Thedata are available for nof deaths ascribed to Coronavirus per million of population here:

Coronavirus deaths per million by country | Statista

I'm mystified why the press don't provide this far more meaningful statistic - is it because it clearly shows the UK has the second highest Coronavirus death rate in the world? If that's a fact, we need to know about it and encourage our government to get the rate of infection, which leads to these deaths, down a lot lower than it is. That means reducing the R value to something significantly below 1, not just marginally below 1, because of the uncertainty in trying to measure R, which others have alluded to. Only then can we really do beat the virus and expect other nations to welcome us as visitors.

Peter.

 

[Tomahawk]

If we have a high death rate per 10,000 population and the lockdown has been very successful (until all the BLM parties), it does seem to point to something?

From what I have seen, doctors have been signing death certificates as C19 without actual testing or verification of the virus. Leads me to question how many "deaths" were not caused by but still recorded as C19 ?

Then there is also the scandal of sending elderly people back to care homes where they had no treatment and likely infected fellow residents.

 

[GlennG]

It seems that the 'R0' numbers are complete fiction consisting of conjecture and assumptions, akin to looking at the waves to determine wind speed (probably a lot less accurate too).

Deaths are another fiction. The only certain thing is someone passed away. The cause is conjecture: did they die with Covid, or because of Covid? Was it that Covid triggered underlying health conditions (co-morbidities) in a fundamentally sick person?

The mistakes were innumerable due to knee-jerk reactions, of which hindsight will teach us greatly. Stopping testing and tracking too early. The centrally managed NHS evicting all bed blockers into care homes without regard to their Covid status to kill thousands of vulnerable residents is unforgivable. Ignoring common sense and continuing to place general-purpose rules upon the entire population will result in decades of austerity and high taxes...

Without accurate information about the true causes of death -- and the ability to post-mortem determine the real cause -- means we cannot trust the "40,000" figure. Comparing "excess" deaths is impossible as the lockdown completely changed society (no deaths by drunken brawls, car crashes, zombies walking off cliffs, etc.) rendering previous comparisons meaningless.

And, of course, the deaths haven't even started yet. All those people cowering at home and not getting that lump seen too. All the lack of exercise. Tensions at home resulting in depression and self harm (overeating, suicide). Lack of primary health care screening. Not to mention the utter misery of lives turned upside down.

To quote Lord Sumption:

The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it's not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It's usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated. That's what I fear we are seeing now. The pressure on politicians has come from the public. They want action. They don't pause to ask whether the action will work. They don't ask themselves whether the cost will be worth paying. They want action anyway. And anyone who has studied history will recognise here the classic symptoms of collective hysteria. Hysteria is infectious. We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease.

 

[seivadnehpets]

Shrewd old bird, Lord Sumption.

Who'd have thought it would be a Septuagenarian Law Lord that would call out such madness.

It kind of tells of the balance of nurturing and valuing the elderly and vulnerable whilst not trampling on the freedoms of the young and healthy.

There will also be the tragedies of the folk that get court in the wrong category.

I think it will nonetheless take government too long to come around to this way of thinking.

Didn't I see Lord Sumption anchored in Stangate Creek on Saturday, or was that his older, madder brother?

 

[Tomahawk]

Yet we see plenty of examples of the sheeple behaviour in this Parish.
Don’t venture into the Lounge or the Covid forum if you value your sanity.

 

[Pye_End]

The accusation that doctors are deliberately falsifying death certificates, probably on the direction of the government is quite bizarre. Do people really think this would happen? What is the motive? Why has nobody leaked the memos to the media? Of course there will be a degree of inaccuracy - there always is. However, if the the overall death rate is so much higher than the Covid-19 certificates implies then it is likely that there have been more Cov related deaths than have been reported, not fewer - so Covid-19 deaths are probably not being over reported as suggested in this thread.

All the numbers have a confidence interval. That doesn't mean they are useless, even the best analysis of R number.

Meanwhile here in Kent the Covid cases could be rising again.... Week-on-week rise in Covid-19 cases Not really surprising as so many are not taking this disease with caution any longer.

 

[seivadnehpets]

It wasn't an effort to falsify, nor an allegation. But when a new disease is discovered, originally there was no test, so no one was diagnosed.
Then there was a test so some were diagnosed.
Then there was an acceptance that patients could be diagnosed by symptoms and an element of probability, uncertainty entered the equation. No conspiracy here, please look elsewhere.

 

[seivadnehpets]

Yet we see plenty of examples of the sheeple behaviour in this Parish.
Don’t venture into the Lounge or the Covid forum if you value your sanity.

You're right,

Blimey, there's a whole world out there.

I'll try to keep out of it!

 

[Old Harry]

Yet we see plenty of examples of the sheeple behaviour in this Parish.
Don’t venture into the Lounge or the Covid forum if you value your sanity.

I note they Lakesailor / Mercury Rising has "Come Out" so to speak, having found out how to escape the Lounge

 

[seivadnehpets]

Covid-19 deaths are probably not being over reported as suggested in this thread.

All the numbers have a confidence interval. That doesn't mean they are useless, even the best analysis of R number.

Pye End, you are probably right, the death rate fluctuates, it has been down for a long time, it often goes up for reasons, similar to Covid, that go undiagnosed. The only difference this time is that we have a name for it.

in 2018 the range of deaths per week was between 15,050 and 7,865

The fact is there will be more deaths for some time to come as the virus won't go away, and there are many fragile people still alive. Also many people will suffer the effects of the virus without dying, some of these will be permanently debilitated.

This is horrible, and I believe none of us like it, but neither do any of us want to live in a police state, where neighbours inform on one another, and no one is privileged to enjoy their life or leisure.

If government want to restrict gatherings, and slow the spread of the virus, they need to come up with long term common sense measures and not perpetuate the shoddy knee jerk reactionary measures that are in force.

 

[Tomahawk]

Seivad,

I am not inclined to agree with you that people don't want to live in a police state..
The very existence and title of this discussion .... "anger at people anchoring overnight" and the number of people who are saying that we should be constrained by rules seems to point to a significant number of people who seem to be very happy with the notion of a police state.

 

[seivadnehpets]

I need to disagree in a sense;

The sense that these people are mistaken, they mistake a permanent problem for a temporary one. Therefore they seek a temporary solution that will become permanent.

I say "need" because I do need this to be true. If it is not I must take advantage of the current Easterly winds to sail from North Devon into the Atlantic with provisions to see me half way across.

 

[FulmarJeddo]

Back to the original subject of boats anchored in Stangate Creek, I heard yesterday that the Police rib had been out and telling people to go home. I only got this 2nd hand and not sure when it happened, but if it is true Nick Ardley may have succeeded in ruining it for everyone. I sailed the length of Stangate yesterday afternoon and only one boat was anchored when I went out and a 2nd arriving as I returned.

 

[seivadnehpets]

Seivad,

I am not inclined to agree with you that people don't want to live in a police state..
The very existence and title of this discussion .... "anger at people anchoring overnight" and the number of people who are saying that we should be constrained by rules seems to point to a significant number of people who seem to be very happy with the notion of a police state.

P.S.

You can call me Stephen,

I am also based at LHYC, so Stangate Creek is a 2nd home!

 

[longjohnsilver]

Back to the original subject of boats anchored in Stangate Creek, I heard yesterday that the Police rib had been out and telling people to go home. I only got this 2nd hand and not sure when it happened, but if it is true Nick Ardley may have succeeded in ruining it for everyone. I sailed the length of Stangate yesterday afternoon and only one boat was anchored when I went out and a 2nd arriving as I returned.

If that’s correct let’s hope Mr Ardley is pleased with himself

 

[Concerto]

I feel sure that Nick Ardley will no longer be welcome in Stangate Creek. What a plonker for ruining this delightful anchorage for everyone during this period.

 

[seivadnehpets]

Sadly its not really about Stangate Creek.

 

[oldgit]

Stangate is for the Essex Navy, newbies and far far too crowded with AWBs
S*******t is where the locals lurk in their MOBs.

 

[Brooksie89]

Just say your protesting?

 

[Pye_End]

It wasn't an effort to falsify, nor an allegation. But when a new disease is discovered, originally there was no test, so no one was diagnosed.
Then there was a test so some were diagnosed.
Then there was an acceptance that patients could be diagnosed by symptoms and an element of probability, uncertainty entered the equation. No conspiracy here, please look elsewhere.

My apologies, I misunderstood 'BANG, Dr s are advised to write Covid on everything ' - misreading induced in part by conspiracy theories seen elsewhere. Your explanation makes more sense.