PaulRainbow
Well-known member
If they ony test limited numbers and don't test to see who has actually had the virus, pretty much all of the figures they come out with are bollox.
Anger at boats anchoring overnight
- Thread starter HappyAfloat
- Start date
If they ony test limited numbers and don't test to see who has actually had the virus, pretty much all of the figures they come out with are bollox.
Old Harry
Well-known member
BUT, but, we now have over 2 zillion test a day available, and Matty Boy has done everything correct, every time
seivadnehpets
Active member
Watch the death rate, not the covid death rate, it tells a truer story.
seivadnehpets
Active member
Although it's not published daily.
Probably for the better.
S.
Probably for the better.
S.
Tomahawk
Well-known member
I consider it is absolutely the point because infection is a numbers game. If R is rising and there is evidence of thousands of boaters, it is possible that boating may be the vector. (Though given the nature of boating in open air it is unlikely). If, however, there are a few boats out and thousands of sheeples milling about on the beaches parks in large crowds it indicates boaters are not the vector,
Indeed, it demonstrates that boating is a safe sport that people can enjoy during lockdown.
Tomahawk
Well-known member
Where is it published?
seivadnehpets
Active member
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/pe...englandandwales/2020/publishedweek212020.xlsx
Currently released up to 22nd May. There seems to be a two to three week lagg.
I guess just enough time for government to bend the figures
seivadnehpets
Active member
Uk deaths all ages, week ending 22nd May 2020 12,288
week ending 24 May 2019 10,284
Week ending 18th May 2018 10,141
I massaged the figures there, I could have stated weekending 25th May 2018 9,636 which would make things look worse now but either way the death rate is still up..
week ending 24 May 2019 10,284
Week ending 18th May 2018 10,141
I massaged the figures there, I could have stated weekending 25th May 2018 9,636 which would make things look worse now but either way the death rate is still up..
Marmalade
Well-known member
I think new cases is the truest measure. Death numbers (they're not rates) will rise as testing increases (ie the number of people who die having tested positive or with clear covid symptoms). Also death rates lag infections by an unknown and variable amount. The number of new cases tells us whether infection is spreading. (Note the number is in many ways more useful than "R" which relies on assumptions and is again laggy).
If deaths are of interest (as of course they are) then "excess" deaths may be a useful comparator - ie the number of deaths compared to an average of this period (March / April May) over the previous n years. This will also throw out a number that, when normalised by population, can be used to compare countries.
If deaths are of interest (as of course they are) then "excess" deaths may be a useful comparator - ie the number of deaths compared to an average of this period (March / April May) over the previous n years. This will also throw out a number that, when normalised by population, can be used to compare countries.
Tomahawk
Well-known member
We are down to comprehensive population sampling and testing. .. which is probably not being done.
How many have been infected and not displayed symptoms?
How many have been infected and not displayed symptoms?
seivadnehpets
Active member
Sorry but I see the individual death reports daily. Patients who don't die in hospital are generally not tested, deaths are diagnosed in accordance with expected outcome of their conditions, and the clever Drs were putting down "viral pneumonia", or so it was until half way through the peak, and then, BANG, Dr s are advised to write Covid on everything. This was not science.
Averages are not always helpful as the range is large, in 2018 the range of deaths per week was between 15,050 and 7,865. The death rate has been very low for a long time so we can expect above average deaths for some time to come.
This virus won't go away, and there may be no vaccine this year or next.
I think eventually government will need to consider isolation for the vulnerable and allow the healthy to return to normal.
Averages are not always helpful as the range is large, in 2018 the range of deaths per week was between 15,050 and 7,865. The death rate has been very low for a long time so we can expect above average deaths for some time to come.
This virus won't go away, and there may be no vaccine this year or next.
I think eventually government will need to consider isolation for the vulnerable and allow the healthy to return to normal.
alandalus11
Active member
Looking back at the previous years. On average 1500 to 1600 people die every DAY in the UK in a normal year. I agree the healthy will have to return to normal.
LONG_KEELER
Well-known member
Interesting.
Tomahawk
Well-known member
Indeed, it makes a mockery of the whole lockdown.
We are being told ;ockdown is necessary to control the spread of the virus. But unless the data is being properly recorded and can be verified, we are simply crashing peoples livelihoods and jobs for a chimera. I am reminded of Don Quhoti tilting at windmills.
We are being told ;ockdown is necessary to control the spread of the virus. But unless the data is being properly recorded and can be verified, we are simply crashing peoples livelihoods and jobs for a chimera. I am reminded of Don Quhoti tilting at windmills.
seivadnehpets
Active member
Week ending 22nd May death rate was still 2000 or 19.5% above average. New Zealand reckon they have banished the covid, but I suspect it will continue unreported. Isn't it like trying to put a genie back in the bottle?
We need to get over the lock down thingy and start thinking of common sense long term measures, but we will probably wait until after the summer before admitting that covid won't just go away.
We need to get over the lock down thingy and start thinking of common sense long term measures, but we will probably wait until after the summer before admitting that covid won't just go away.
pvb
Well-known member
I thought we were told that the lockdown was essential to safeguard the NHS from being overwhelmed by the 500,000 fatal cases which Prof Ferguson predicted? In fact, it was obvious months ago that the NHS was not going to be overwhelmed (remember the pictures of empty Nightingale hospitals?). So the lockdown could have been lifted much sooner, and people sent back to work.
pvb
Well-known member
What I do know is that the R numbers being quoted cannot possibly have any basis in science, as insufficient testing is taking place. The R numbers are guesses (although the "scientists" may call them "estimates"). If you believe them, you're not as bright as I thought you were.
alandalus11
Active member
There was an interesting interview on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday with Professor John Edmonds, an adviser at SAGE to the government, in which he says that we all want the virus to end by vaccination but in the end the way this will end is by all of us being infected and getting herd immunity, as that is the way all viruses end. So for the near term C19 isn't going away and getting on with our lives in a common sense approach is probably going to be the way forward.
johnalison
Well-known member
I like to be flattered, but in relation to the figures it is the relative values that are most likely to mean something. It looks as if, although the rate of infection has slowed in many areas, it has increased in others, makng complacency inadvisable.
pvb
Well-known member
But, with inadequate testing, nobody will ever know the truth!