Wrong shipping forecast

[Blueboatman]

It's all there for free. Just need some time on goole to make use if it or get chatgpt to write some code for you. Massive amount of data is available. just got to know where to look before blaming any lack of data.

DataPoint API reference

Indeed
I use Passage Weather and other American sites to access uk buoys and coastal reports and comprehensive Synoptics
The met office here in the UK used to be The Go To site
Where would we be without the internet eh ?

 

[NormanS]

If you are relying solely on the Shipping Forecast, and the wrong forecast is given, I would consider that to be serious. I remember a situation many years ago, when there were Coast Radio Stations, which among other services used to read out the Shipping Forecast, when the forecast from Skye Radio was so different from reality, that I called them up to question it.
It turned out that they had somehow read out a forecast which had been issued several months ago! They were very apologetic.
Nowadays I seldom bother with the Shipping Forecast, preferring something much more localised, like the Inshore Forecast, or better still and if I have internet access, some of the many internet offerings.

 

[GHA]

Indeed
I use Passage Weather and other American sites to access uk buoys and coastal reports and comprehensive Synoptics
The met office here in the UK used to be The Go To site
Where would we be without the internet eh ?

Everything is in windy. All the models, live/saved ship7buoy data, nearest webcams , all in there

 

[Buck Turgidson]

Everything is in windy. All the models, live/saved ship7buoy data, nearest webcams , all in there

and yet no matter how hard you search you still never find the weather you want!

 

[Snowgoose-1]

I was given a wristwatch which has programmable barometer. It is surprisingly accurate with warnings well on advance. I think it is stand alone from web and phone signals.

 

[GHA]

and yet no matter how hard you search you still never find the weather you want!

Like the wonderful Randall Reeves said of the southern ocean - Weatherforecasts are wrong but they can be strongly suggestive...

Surprising near total lack of any interest in here about learning more about how global weather systems actually work, most just open an app & then decide that it's the best!, despite nearly all the apps using the same data ....

 

[oldgit]

Left wind bias will be at the root of it!

 

[Sandy]

Did anyone else notice that Radio 4 broadcast the wrong shipping forecast at 0520 this morning?
They read out the forecast for Monday 17th instead of Weds 19th.
But how do I contact the BBC to point this out?

It is even more frustrating when the CG read out an older forecast than the Met Office have published.

 

[franksingleton]

This used to happen occasionally in the “old” days when we sent texts by teletype. Bits of paper got mislaid and a BBC announcer would grab what came to hand. The more professional announcers would sometimes rehearse to get the timing right. It is a mystery to me that it should still happen [in these days of electronic comes and autocues.

 

[PabloPicasso]

... . But even these guys get it wrong from time to time. But I guess it's just a forecast.

Yep, best shortrange forecasts are, maybe, 80% accurate??

That's wrong 1 in 5 times

 

[franksingleton]

It all depends on how you define accuracy and how you measure it.

 

[Sandy]

Yep, best shortrange forecasts are, maybe, 80% accurate??

That's wrong 1 in 5 times

I had quite a long chat with one of the Met Office Shipping Forecast people at the RMetS/RIN Weather and Sailing event a Greenwich a few years ago about how I felt that the Meteo France Maritime shipping forecast was a more accurate reflection of what I was experiencing. His comments lead me to a greater understanding of the Met Office SF - they broadcast the maximum for a sea/inshore area. With that key bit of info I look at their offerings in a different light.

The Meteo France Inshore areas are much shorter compared to the UK ones.

Take a look at the RMetS or RIN websites for the next Weather and Sailing event and if something grabs your attention it might be worth attending. I was amazed to hear at the event at the Met Office a few years earlier that it is windy in Cornwall in winter!

 

[LittleSister]

I was amazed to hear at the event at the Met Office a few years earlier that it is windy in Cornwall in winter!

That's the trouble with science, it either confirms what people thought was the case, so is considered a waste of time and resources, or contradicts it, so is thought to be ivory tower nonsense in need of the application of some 'common' sense.

I was given a wristwatch which has programmable barometer. It is surprisingly accurate with warnings well on advance. I think it is stand alone from web and phone signals.

I was given a bit of seaweed to hang up, which is also surprisingly accurate and not obviously connected to the web or phone signals!

 

[Wansworth]

Iwas

That's the trouble with science, it either confirms what people thought was the case, so is considered a waste of time and resources, or contradicts it, so is thought to be ivory tower nonsense in need of the application of some 'common' sense.



I was given a bit of seaweed to hang up, which is also surprisingly accurate and not obviously connected to the web or phone signals!

given a whale that changed colour with weather,hardly room onthe mantlepiece

 

[franksingleton]

I had quite a long chat with one of the Met Office Shipping Forecast people at the RMetS/RIN Weather and Sailing event a Greenwich a few years ago about how I felt that the Meteo France Maritime shipping forecast was a more accurate reflection of what I was experiencing. His comments lead me to a greater understanding of the Met Office SF - they broadcast the maximum for a sea/inshore area. With that key bit of info I look at their offerings in a different light.

The Meteo France Inshore areas are much shorter compared to the UK ones.

Take a look at the RMetS or RIN websites for the next Weather and Sailing event and if something grabs your attention it might be worth attending. I was amazed to hear at the event at the Met Office a few years earlier that it is windy in Cornwall in winter!

All forecasts for an area are difficult to write meaningfully whether it is a sea area or a land area. Assessment of accuracy is nigh impossible in a way that would satisfy users and providers. The uk shipping forecast covers some 30 oddly shaped areas. The total length has not t o exceed 330 words. That includes the preamble, the synoptic situation and gale warning summary. There has to be consistency with gale warnings some of which may only apply to a small part of an area. Unnecessary words such as wind, visibility, sea state are omitted. Weather is only described when it affects visibility. Words are kept to a small, well defined vocabulary.

Inshore forecasts are for fairly short stretches of coast but, at the request of HMCG, have to be brief. That is to keep to their schedules. Weather varies in space and time on a wide range of scales. At the low end it is simply impossible to get it right. Local, short term variations in wind are an obvious example. Variations in visibility, likewise.


In my experience, French forecasts are similar in quality. I do find their use of words to lack discipline. Even reading the forecast I still find words that I have nor heard or seen before. That makes them difficult To understand for a non-French speaker even after many years. They try to describe weather in more detail than the UK but, often not in a way that is necessary. Their stretches of coast, eg Cap se la Hague to pont de Penmar’c are unwieldy. The forecaster often habe to be split them up. That is good in someways in that the forecaster is not restricted by a strait jacket but it increases the complexity of the forecast. It is arguable whether this is better than the UK smaller inshore areas.


I often hear criticism of accuracy of a marine forecast. A challenge that nobody has yet taken up is for a critic to sail for, say 12 hours, 6 if you like.Then describe the weather that you have experienced in the same word limit as a forecast. You will find it difficult. Then think about a forecaster trying to describe forecast wether for a larger are for 24 hours. Sweeping statements whether comparing forecasts or about overall accuracy are invariably based on a few occasions and highly subjective.