Weather: Don't be caught out by Monday & Tuesday winds

[simonjk]

Morning all,

Just a quick heads up on something that anyone of you who have attended Weather School will be only too aware.

We are in a classic building anticyclone situation, with an east or southeast flow affecting many areas. That means that the forecasts you will be seeing on the web will be under-forecasting the winds; other factors are at play too.

So, add at least a force to the forecasts you are seeing, especially in western and southern parts of the UK and over the whole of Ireland.

Hope that's of use.

Simon

P.S. I've a couple of places available on my Weather Schools in October, see http://www.WeatherSchool.co.uk for more info

 

[Tidewaiter2]

Thanks, Simon.
It's all our fault- land bound for nearly two months- today (Mon) is our first chance to get to the boat

 

[simonjk]

Wish you'd told me earlier, always handy to have extra data to input into the forecasts

 

[scottie]

Scottish schools go back today which means immediate weather improvement

 

[jonjo]

We are in a classic building anticyclone situation, with an east or southeast flow affecting many areas. That means that the forecasts you will be seeing on the web will be under-forecasting the winds; other factors are at play too.

What, you know something all other pro sources of weather info don't?

Does the syllabus at your Weather School include the usage of snake oil?

 

[jac]

What, you know something all other pro sources of weather info don't?

Does the syllabus at your Weather School include the usage of snake oil?

simple way to test - look at the forecasts for the south and west and compare with the actuals 24 hours later.

 

[SimonFa]

What, you know something all other pro sources of weather info don't?

Does the syllabus at your Weather School include the usage of snake oil?

I thought we were supposed to use sea weed?

 

[Pete7]

Well this morning Simon is correct, wind forecast for Lymington area 8 - 12 knots, however, we have 16 - 17 knots tucked into Hurst Castle and building during the morning.

 

[sarabande]

fields of nearly dry hay being thrown around by turbulent gusts half an hour ago on Exmoor !.

 

[colhel]

What, you know something all other pro sources weather info don't?

Does the syllabus at your Weather School include the usage of snake oil?

I've found Simons forecasts are informative and accurate. I hope you haven't put him off from posting here..

 

[Angele]

So, add at least a force to the forecasts you are seeing, especially in western and southern parts of the UK and over the whole of Ireland.

Does that mean they are overstating the forecasts winds for this weekend then? (Windguru currently predicting mean wind speed for Portsmouth at over 20 kts throughout the day on Saturday).

Please tell me it is going to be a glorious force 4. And from north of west, ideally.

 

[jac]

Does that mean they are overstating the forecasts winds for this weekend then? (Windguru currently predicting mean wind speed for Portsmouth at over 20 kts throughout the day on Saturday).

Please tell me it is going to be a glorious force 4. And from north of west, ideally.

NW through to NE for me please - Hoping to head down to Salcombe from this weekend.

 

[davidmh]

Met office Inshore Selsey to Lyme at 0600 was E 4-5, and same for next 24 hours. Chichester Bar has been just that all day

David

 

[savageseadog]

It's Brexit weather

 

[AngusMcDoon]

You didn't warn us of that F10 which rattled through the NW of Scotland a week or so ago. Are we unimportant in northern parts, man enough to take it, or it's just a normal run of the mill Scottish summer thing so not unexpected?

 

[jonjo]

I've found Simons forecasts are informative and accurate. I hope you haven't put him off from posting here..

He is used to me.

Simon's forecasts reflect his tendency to create an impression that his predictions have a little bit of extra meteorological secret sauce missing in mainstream forecasts. His contrarian stance can sometimes be wide of the mark. I do find his 1 to 2 week outlooks useful and accurate when I have the patience to sit through the El Nino annual global assessment preamble.