Scotland - When do you plan to launch?

[CapPugwash]

That's one way of looking at it. Galloway has had 30 confirmed cases in the past 7 days, which is 20 per 100,000. Glasgow has had 840 cases in that time, which is 133 per 100,000.

Absolutely, and don't forget they're not testing everybody so those numbers have to be taken with of salt. They're testing people with symptoms (I believe) so that will produce a higher number of positive results, particularly amongst higher population groups.

All this is statistics of course. For it to be actual evidence the sample pool would need to be very large and reflect a full cross section of society.

 

[DoubleThyme]

That's one way of looking at it. Galloway has had 30 confirmed cases in the past 7 days, which is 20 per 100,000. Glasgow has had 840 cases in that time, which is 133 per 100,000.

We have only just been allowed in the shed to work on our boat but the marina are keen to get us in the water asap.
Sorry to interrupt this post but I can't see how to message JumbleDuck directly.
JumbleDuck - I want to get in touch with you as I saw from one of your posts that you are a member of the Port Bannatyne Moorings Association. I have drawn a total blank trying to get in touch with them for the last two years. There seem to be unused moorings in the bay and we would love to get in touch with someone who might not be using theirs this season. We live in Toward and currently have our boat in the shed in Holy Loch. Wondered if you could help me get to know people on Bute. Best wishes, Helen

 

[awol]

Wondered if you could help me get to know people on Bute. Best wishes, Helen

Pop into the Black Bull (when it reopens) shout "drinks for everyone" - sorted!

 

[JumbleDuck]

Absolutely, and don't forget they're not testing everybody so those numbers have to be taken with of salt. They're testing people with symptoms (I believe) so that will produce a higher number of positive results, particularly amongst higher population groups.

Of course, though I am not quite sure what you mean by "higher population groups". The ONS does regular random testing, and their latest bulletin suggests that in Scotland overall 1 in 320 of us has The Bug. However, I haven't seen any data from them breaking Scotland (or England, Wales or NI) down into small geographical units. Nonetheless the figures I quoted (confirmed cases per 100,000, though over 28 days) are those which will be used to establish levels in due course.

 

[ctva]

JD is too quick.

 

[JumbleDuck]

We have only just been allowed in the shed to work on our boat but the marina are keen to get us in the water asap.
Sorry to interrupt this post but I can't see how to message JumbleDuck directly.
JumbleDuck - I want to get in touch with you as I saw from one of your posts that you are a member of the Port Bannatyne Moorings Association. I have drawn a total blank trying to get in touch with them for the last two years. There seem to be unused moorings in the bay and we would love to get in touch with someone who might not be using theirs this season. We live in Toward and currently have our boat in the shed in Holy Loch. Wondered if you could help me get to know people on Bute. Best wishes, Helen

Hello Helen

You have to make a minimum number of posts (5?) before being allowed to PM. I'll look out for your message ...

 

[JumbleDuck]

JD is too quick.

You promised me you wouldn't tell.

 

[CapPugwash]

Of course, though I am not quite sure what you mean by "higher population groups". The ONS does regular random testing, and their latest bulletin suggests that in Scotland overall 1 in 320 of us has The Bug. However, I haven't seen any data from them breaking Scotland (or England, Wales or NI) down into small geographical units. Nonetheless the figures I quoted (confirmed cases per 100,000, though over 28 days) are those which will be used to establish levels in due course.

And, as Doctor freind of mine pointed out to me recently, with the schools testing the kids we should get a more representative data set. So that's a good reason for sending little litmus tests back.

 

[ctva]

Simple solution is to stop testing and just go on hospital admissions like other reportable diseases or flu (and not comparing CV to flu, just the process).

 

[JumbleDuck]

And, as Doctor freind of mine pointed out to me recently, with the schools testing the kids we should get a more representative data set. So that's a good reason for sending little litmus tests back.

A very basic look at the data suggests that current tests are missing about 2/3 of cases - that's comparing the most recent ONS estimate of 1 in 320 infected with a seven day moving average of 500 confirmed cases per day across their survey period. If it normally lasts ~10 days that would be 5000 live cases or 1 in 1090.

 

[DoubleThyme]

Hello Helen

You have to make a minimum number of posts (5?) before being allowed to PM. I'll look out for your message ...

Great. Thank you for the advice.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Great. Thank you for the advice.

I won't be using my mooring this year ...

 

[ctva]

I won't be using my mooring this year ...

Depends if we let you in... ?

 

[DoubleThyme]

Ah ha. I will do some posting and see if I can PM you. Looking for a swinging home for our labour of love for the summer - her varnish hates rubbing up against fenders in a marina and she weighs about 10 tons. Thank you for your connection.

 

[awol]

Another thought could be Royal Gourock (https://rgyc.org.uk/). Club launch, awfully helpful boatman, Western Ferries almost to the door, and your boat would improve the class of the anchorage no end. PM me for more when you are able.

 

[Minchsailor]

Ah ha. I will do some posting and see if I can PM you. Looking for a swinging home for our labour of love for the summer - her varnish hates rubbing up against fenders in a marina and she weighs about 10 tons. Thank you for your connection.

Kilmelford up by Oban usually have swinging mooring available.

www.kilmelfordyachthaven.co.uk

 

[JumbleDuck]

Kilmelford up by Oban usually have swinging mooring available.

www.kilmelfordyachthaven.co.uk

Very nice people and nice place. Blinking expensive, though. Having settled on the canal I have thrown away my bit of paper with the costs of everywhere I could think of written on it. However, a quick look at the Kilmelford website says £156 per metre for the summer. That's almost exactly what my mooring at PB costs me for the year (£55 to the MA and £100 for servicing). Crinan is about the same. Kerrara is a lot more.

Only two posts to go, WildThyme ...

 

[claymore]

We have only just been allowed in the shed to work on our boat but the marina are keen to get us in the water asap.
Sorry to interrupt this post but I can't see how to message JumbleDuck directly.
JumbleDuck - I want to get in touch with you as I saw from one of your posts that you are a member of the Port Bannatyne Moorings Association. I have drawn a total blank trying to get in touch with them for the last two years. There seem to be unused moorings in the bay and we would love to get in touch with someone who might not be using theirs this season. We live in Toward and currently have our boat in the shed in Holy Loch. Wondered if you could help me get to know people on Bute. Best wishes, Helen

Be careful what you wish for.....

 

[DoubleThyme]

I was very envious of the two yachts out sailing on the Firth of Clyde yesterday afternoon. Beautiful weather

 

[DoubleThyme]

Be careful what you wish for.....

Meeting other sailors is always something to wish for. I am sure you are lovely too