Sailing to a schedule. RIP 4 x Danish cruisers

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webcraft

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As far as I'm aware, and there is plenty of info available, all of the orca rudder munching has happened in flat, calm conditions, so no excuse for being so close in in those conditions.
 
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Hoolie

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Wow! I didn't know the boat being rolled had been recorded. As you say, utter madness, both to set off in those conditions and then hug the line of breaking waves.
 
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dankilb

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Hoolie said:
Wow! I didn't know the boat being rolled had been recorded. As you say, utter madness, both to set off in those conditions and then hug the line of breaking waves.
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Yup - was posted in another thread here: Not a night to be at sea
Also various (or at least one) more video on the ‘other’ fora online. One shows it seemingly bimbling around in the surf prior, but definitely making way and under control. Looks like one crew on the lee rail. Interestingly another yacht is in the background (maybe 1km further out?) making reasonable way in the same direction - although still seems mad to have been out there. Lost for words.
 
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An interesting theory by TrentePieds on Cruisersforum is that because the boat was so close inshore the trough of a large wave caused them to ground and lose the keel. Obviously after that a capsize was inevitable.
His post is here.
 
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Several cases of boats losing their keel and then capsizing immediately spring to mind:
  • Tony Bullymore (sp?)
  • Cheeky Rafiki
  • Moquini
 
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ridgy

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Hoolie said:
An interesting theory by TrentePieds on Cruisersforum is that because the boat was so close inshore the trough of a large wave caused them to ground and lose the keel. Obviously after that a capsize was inevitable.
His post is here.
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From the video it appears to me that the boat was valiantly trying to keep itself upright for quite a while, holding itself at 90 degrees for most of the way before being finally overwhelmed.
It still had it's keel when it went over.
 
roa312

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It is a great tragedy when people's lives are lost, and there are still unknowns regarding potential technical problems prior to the capsize etc. However, I thought it would be relevant for viewers here to read some of the information published by Danish media and even more relevant from long-term friends of the captain and the deceased. The information below is pieced together by me from Facebook posts and media articles.
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The boat is a Bavaria 38 and it was crewed by two men aged 56 and 57 and two women aged 46 and 61. This was the ship owner, one of his long-term sailing friends, another friend who had joined a couple of weeks prior to the accident, and the fourth had presumably joined following an ad listing for crew members on one of the Danish Facebook sites for sailors. One of the crew members owned another identical Bavaria 38. It's generally mentioned that the crew was carefully selected for the trip and other friends were excluded due to medical problems etc. The owner had bought the boat new from the factory and used it as a liveaboard for a few years in Denmark while he had been installing equipment necessary for the trip, learning to know the boat, etc. He was keen on single-handling and also sailed plenty of times with friends. It's said that he was a lifelong sailor and very experienced overall, as was his long-term friend who was onboard. I can't find any other background information on the other two crew.

Descriptions of their trip to Marina de Peniche are quite vague, but it's mentioned that they had encountered very heavy seas from passing storm Ciaran, which had not been concerning to the crew. They arrived in Marina de Peniche between 15-16 pm on Wednesday. There was a new storm warning for Saturday (storm Domingos), and Marina de Peniche was found to be a bad harbor to stay in during bad weather. They had planned to depart on Thursday but, due to heavy winds, decided to stay and aimed for Friday morning instead. (It's unclear to me if they had a specific destination in mind and what options they had to choose from between Peniche and Cascais - any locals, please feel free to add your thoughts!). The screenshot below is a weather forecast posted by a friend of the skipper. This indicates wind speeds between 14-20 km/h (~7-13 knots), which seems totally off to me but maybe this is from Monday 30 Oct, and the weather just deteriorated a lot over that week (It would be interesting to see if anyone else has access to recordings of weather forecasts).
Forecast.jpg

They departed Marina de Peniche very early on Friday, but I can't find the exact time. Another French-flagged catamaran is reported to have departed at the same time. However, it's clear that red warnings were issued for Lisbon during Thursday (link). The link mentions a warning for district "Lisbon" and I presume that includes the Torres Vedras district covering Perniche, but I'm not sure about this? One of the friends of the captain disputes this saying that the captain didn't want to depart under red warning and that they were also aware of the fines(?) for sailing during red warnings.

I think there are two separate videos of the boat prior to the sinking. Video 1 shows the boat sailing very close to the coasts, but nothing else to be seen. The second video is of the capsize, which clearly shows a large wave hitting from the starboard side, leading to immediate capsize. Friends of the crew speculate that there could have been engine problems, but I can't find any sources verifying this. It's possible that the Portuguese authorities will later report on distress calls. None of the crew were wearing life jackets, which is extremely odd, especially considering the very close distance to shore.

Danish media visited Marina de Peniche and interviewed a French person who had been berthed right next to the vessel prior to departure. He had found all four crew members to be very inexperienced with regards to sailing in general and inexperienced with regards to handling the boat. He mentioned having warned the sailors not to depart due to the weather. This goes to show how impressions can differ and its now being widely reported across several medias that the crew was inexperienced.
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