RTI this Saturday

Just had a look on Windy. The UKV and ECMWF now both predicting 25 kn south of the island around midday with gusts in the mid/high 30s. It looks like it going to be another breezy one. @flaming I don't envy you.

Does anyone know if the starts are going to be live streamed on YouTube?
 
Chiara’s slave said:
It looks to be at it’s peak at St Cats at just the time the fleet will be going through. Fast early starters will miss the worst.
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I think this year could end up with more issues than last year. Current forecast is that the beat down the solent will be in the high teens. With the big breeze only really hitting after most of the fleet is out of the Solent. I suspect that not sailing into the strong breeze on the beat, unlike last year, might encourage more boats to go for it.
 
Puffin10032 said:
Just had a look on Windy. The UKV and ECMWF now both predicting 25 kn south of the island around midday with gusts in the mid/high 30s. It looks like it going to be another breezy one. @flaming I don't envy you.

Does anyone know if the starts are going to be live streamed on YouTube?
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I'd take the gust values with a pinch of salt to be honest. But yes, it's going to be windy...
 
flaming said:
I'd take the gust values with a pinch of salt to be honest. But yes, it's going to be windy...
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As per recent discussion here. Gust predictions seem to be generally high. Though sometimes accurate, it’s unlikely to get right up there, except at the bear away at the Needles. That will be a brown trousers job for the multihull entries.
 
flaming said:
I think this year could end up with more issues than last year. Current forecast is that the beat down the solent will be in the high teens. With the big breeze only really hitting after most of the fleet is out of the Solent. I suspect that not sailing into the strong breeze on the beat, unlike last year, might encourage more boats to go for it.
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Can't fault that logic but surely there won't be "proper" breaking waves the way there were last year, so it won't be "dangerous", which I think last year's was.
 
Mark-1 said:
Can't fault that logic but surely there won't be "proper" breaking waves the way there were last year, so it won't be "dangerous", which I think last years was.
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Last year they reported the lowest number of incidents for many years, 9 - although of course this included the scary MOB in the overfalls at St Kats. To me that said that largely skippers made the right decision for them and their boat.
Although the conditions might not be quite as bad as last year, it remains the case that on an averagely windy RTI there are many incidents, and I fear that a relatively benign beat down the western Solent might tempt some skippers to go for it who would not have done last year, and will be well outside their comfort zone.
 
Interestingly, if you go back to page 2 of this thread, the forecasts are extremely similar to this year.
 
flaming said:
Last year they reported the lowest number of incidents for many years, 9 - although of course this included the scary MOB in the overfalls at St Kats. To me that said that largely skippers made the right decision for them and their boat.
Although the conditions might not be quite as bad as last year, it remains the case that on an averagely windy RTI there are many incidents, and I fear that a relatively benign beat down the western Solent might tempt some skippers to go for it who would not have done last year, and will be well outside their comfort zone.
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Yeah, I totally agree with that logic - It likely won't be as dicey, but many more people will carry on, probably the vast majority.

Chiara’s slave said:
The overfalls at St Cats, full on wind over tide and 25 gusting 35. I think that’ll give you breaking waves.
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Oh dear. AFAIC breaking waves are a lottery, and with a lot more more people playing wave roulette a lot more will end up losing.
 
The latest statement seems a little optimistic when you look at the different forecast models.

Given the timings of the current forecast, we aren’t, at this stage, cancelling any classes.

We believe that with winds projected to be 15 knots at the start, most competitors should be able to cope, and by the time the heavier winds come in, most of them should be in the shelter of the land.

We will continue to discuss the forecasts as they become available and will update all competitors in due course.

Whilst we want all competitors to have a good day, we need to remind everyone that RRS Part 1 Fundamental Rule 3 clearly states that the responsibility for a boat’s decision to race or to continue racing is hers alone.
 
This is the forecast on their website....

The low coming in from the W should pass over the UK during the day, centred over Ireland at dawn, N Wales by noon and moving into the North Sea by dusk.

The morning and early afternoon are likely to be squally with occasionally heavy rain, drying up by mid afternoon.

Wind: SW 12-15 gusting 18 kts at the start, increasing SW 20-25 gusting 30 kts with squally showers by noon, increasing further SW 22-27 gusting 32 kts by early to mid afternoon, veering W/WSW 20-25 gusting 30-32 kts by early evening.

Temperature: 15-17⁰C on land, 14-16⁰C at sea, sea surface 14-15⁰C.

Sea conditions: Building to 0.6-1m in the E Solent, 1.8-2.2m in the W Solent, 2.5-3m outside.
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Which is a little bit lighter than last year. But still going to be something of a sleigh ride down the back of the island.

Looking at the timing, we have an 0800 start, so looking at being at the Needles circa 1000 and St Kats somewhere around 1100/1130 I guess. Bembridge by 1300 and finished by 1500 for a roughly 7 hour lap seems reasonable. We actually start into the last of the flood, so if we're quick enough down the back of the island there is a slim chance we could even have fair tide up the Eastern Solent for the first time ever.

Which, for us, does sort of chime with the idea that we'll be back in the solent before the biggest breeze comes through, but there's a lot of slower boats starting behind us....

Of course it wasn't supposed to be RTI this weekend, until the isle of wight festival created a clash for the 21st....
 
Lucky Duck said:
Their website is going to some odd landing page right now (

Edit - now working again, entries listed as 835
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I think 835 was the max it got to...

If you click on "who's entered" and select for all it's saying 791. It was 792 last time I looked!
 
The Dragonfly fleet seem to be sitting this one out, apart from a 40 and a 32. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Al Wood go for it in his 25. He’s looking for a record I should think. It’s one he does not have.
 
Lucky Duck said:
I thought it said 855 yesterday evening but no doubt I was mistaken.

Does cancelling before the start offer any advantage such as a partial refund?
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8.5 Any boat withdrawing before 1700 hours on Tuesday13th May will be entitled to a refund less £25 administration fee. Boats withdrawing after this time but before 1700 hours on Friday 23rd May will be entitled to a 50% refund. Except in exceptional circumstances, there will be no refunds after 1700 hours on Friday 23rd May 2025.
 
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