Peppermint
New member
Many seas areas have fierce reputations, Biscay, The Bristol Channel, etc. Are they hype or deserved?
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Reputations
- Thread starter Peppermint
- Start date
powerskipper
Well-known member
I would think deserved but as alway the weather will play a big part in it. Both are said to be watched in certain sea or weather conditions, So as long as you do your homework and watch the weather things should be OK.
<hr width=100% size=1>Julie ,
IMOSHO of course,
<hr width=100% size=1>Julie ,
IMOSHO of course,
ParaHandy
Active member
.. probably ....
i do wonder about some almanacs and pilots which seem to believe their role in life is to stop you going anywhere by over-exaggerating dangers ...
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i do wonder about some almanacs and pilots which seem to believe their role in life is to stop you going anywhere by over-exaggerating dangers ...
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ParaHandy
Active member
the answer has to be to treat them with respect, surely and on reflection.
for two reasons: for over 1000 years britons have crossed those waters successfully without either decent weather forecasts or navigation aids (and as it's 1000 years since we were last invaded by sea, the furriners have been making benjenbavs for longer than we might think but that's a frivolous thought).
secondly, its a matter of physics; a few molecules of H2O, currents, wind, topography and you've a predictable model ....
the hype is a different matter ... there's nothing our commercial shipping would like more than to see us all tucked safely up in our pens and staying there. utter bollocks, of course, but nevertheless if you wish to dissuade people from doing something, then over-emphasize the dangers and we will drift inexorably toward regulation by forcing conformity. our political masters want everybody ticked off and in a box where its a) easier to tax us and b) easier to keep tabs on us ....
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for two reasons: for over 1000 years britons have crossed those waters successfully without either decent weather forecasts or navigation aids (and as it's 1000 years since we were last invaded by sea, the furriners have been making benjenbavs for longer than we might think but that's a frivolous thought).
secondly, its a matter of physics; a few molecules of H2O, currents, wind, topography and you've a predictable model ....
the hype is a different matter ... there's nothing our commercial shipping would like more than to see us all tucked safely up in our pens and staying there. utter bollocks, of course, but nevertheless if you wish to dissuade people from doing something, then over-emphasize the dangers and we will drift inexorably toward regulation by forcing conformity. our political masters want everybody ticked off and in a box where its a) easier to tax us and b) easier to keep tabs on us ....
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BrendanS
Well-known member
>>secondly, its a matter of physics; a few molecules of H2O, currents, wind, topography and you've a predictable model ....>>
Where's that one in reality? I've yet to see a predictable model of weather forecasting. It's still 40% science and 60% art and knowledge
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Where's that one in reality? I've yet to see a predictable model of weather forecasting. It's still 40% science and 60% art and knowledge
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kingfisher
Well-known member
These places become less and less swallowers of ship and men, because of the improvement of weather predictions.
With 5+ days predictions more and more accurate, people just hold out for the right moment. So more and more people arrive in Biscay without having seen more than a F5-6.
But nevertheless, they shouldn't be taken lightly. On average, weather predictions are 90% reliable within 48hrs, after that it's just 50%. And if the excrement does hit the ventilator in those places, people become devoutly religious realy fast.
Just read the crossing-of-the-Gibraltar-strait-in-hell in the Scuttlebutt section what can happen if the weather becomes unpredictable.
Better weather predictions have made extended sailing more accessible, together with the GPS and ever more powerfull engines (would you cross the Channel as willingly as you do now with a Seagull?). The downside is that by the time you knew about dead reckoning, you also picked up other usefull experience. Now it's just a case of pushing a button and you're off. But what if it fails ?
<hr width=100% size=1>Group of people on the pontoon: skipper is the one with the toolbox.
http://sirocco31.tripod.com
With 5+ days predictions more and more accurate, people just hold out for the right moment. So more and more people arrive in Biscay without having seen more than a F5-6.
But nevertheless, they shouldn't be taken lightly. On average, weather predictions are 90% reliable within 48hrs, after that it's just 50%. And if the excrement does hit the ventilator in those places, people become devoutly religious realy fast.
Just read the crossing-of-the-Gibraltar-strait-in-hell in the Scuttlebutt section what can happen if the weather becomes unpredictable.
Better weather predictions have made extended sailing more accessible, together with the GPS and ever more powerfull engines (would you cross the Channel as willingly as you do now with a Seagull?). The downside is that by the time you knew about dead reckoning, you also picked up other usefull experience. Now it's just a case of pushing a button and you're off. But what if it fails ?
<hr width=100% size=1>Group of people on the pontoon: skipper is the one with the toolbox.
http://sirocco31.tripod.com
ParaHandy
Active member
would you not agree that predicting behaviour of the sea is fluid dynamics and such science is well known?
the met forecasts are not bad .. however they're derived ... all imho of course
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the met forecasts are not bad .. however they're derived ... all imho of course
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Cornishman
New member
Biscay for gales plus, but Bristol Channel's reputation is more to do with strong tidal streams.
I recall crossing Biscay in January 1960 on board HMT Oxfordshire in a pretty fierce westerly gale, and even in 25,000 tons of troopship I was glad we had plenty of sea room from that lee shore. Giant seas and a rolling deck made shooting at balloons with a .303 rifle something of an art form, for those who were well enough to try!
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I recall crossing Biscay in January 1960 on board HMT Oxfordshire in a pretty fierce westerly gale, and even in 25,000 tons of troopship I was glad we had plenty of sea room from that lee shore. Giant seas and a rolling deck made shooting at balloons with a .303 rifle something of an art form, for those who were well enough to try!
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nicho
Well-known member
I think they need careful planning for, and much respect. Recently, a largish Beneteau was being delivered to the ARC start at Gran Canaria when it was caught in a bad storm in the Bay of Biscay. There was considerable structural damage. I have just witnessed the full force of an Atlantic storm on board a Jeanneau 45' yacht, and it was not nice, causing some internal damage.
The problems seem largely lie with poor and innacurate forecasting, and perhaps poor boat preparation. Also the way a boat is sailed in such extreme conditions plays a big part in it's ability to survive unscathed, all in my opinion of course. (very humble that it is!!)
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The problems seem largely lie with poor and innacurate forecasting, and perhaps poor boat preparation. Also the way a boat is sailed in such extreme conditions plays a big part in it's ability to survive unscathed, all in my opinion of course. (very humble that it is!!)
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Robin
Well-known member
Balloons and 303s
Would you take commissions for removing Pot Markers?
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Would you take commissions for removing Pot Markers?
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BrendanS
Well-known member
Fluid dynamics works well in controlled or limited environments, but the scientists are still a huge way off really understanding how weather really works.
Many of the models still have empirical elements in them, and these models are then taken and further assessed by a human to provide the actual forecast.
Agree that the met forecasts are a lot more accurate than they used to be, and quite good at short range
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Many of the models still have empirical elements in them, and these models are then taken and further assessed by a human to provide the actual forecast.
Agree that the met forecasts are a lot more accurate than they used to be, and quite good at short range
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pandroid
Active member
Actually, the Met Office would disagree.
They believe that New Weather = Current Weather x Fluid Dynamics Formulas
They know what the formulas are, what they dont know, to sufficient accuracy, is what the weather is doing now, beacuse they havent got enough info, and they dont have a big enough computer. I believe they are currently working on a 12 mile grid. Everytime they get a bigger computer, they narrow the grid and the forecasts get better.
There not much 'art' left in it these days
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They believe that New Weather = Current Weather x Fluid Dynamics Formulas
They know what the formulas are, what they dont know, to sufficient accuracy, is what the weather is doing now, beacuse they havent got enough info, and they dont have a big enough computer. I believe they are currently working on a 12 mile grid. Everytime they get a bigger computer, they narrow the grid and the forecasts get better.
There not much 'art' left in it these days
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pandroid
Active member
My understanding was that the only thing the guys added were the fronts. The GRIB stuff we use comes 'untouched by human hand'
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zefender
Active member
I think in the case of Biscay, its fearsome reputation is many historical. Gales from the west pushed boats towards the french coast, where there is very little shelter. The continental shelf shallows quickly there too producing, in the right conditions, some very lively seas in certain spots. Boats that were less able to sail close to the wind would find themselves unable to escape. These days, as long as reasonable care is taken with forecasting, a half decent boat is available and the skipper stays well offshore in deep water, I'm not sure its any worse than many other sea areas. Last year, we were caught there in a near gale (despite having followed the above rules!) and, although a little lively, it was never worrying.
To my mind, it isn't the height of waves which is a problem, only their shape, steep 2-3 metre waves, particularly if they are not coming from a uniform direction are much more dangerous than far higher, fat backed ones.
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To my mind, it isn't the height of waves which is a problem, only their shape, steep 2-3 metre waves, particularly if they are not coming from a uniform direction are much more dangerous than far higher, fat backed ones.
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BrendanS
Well-known member
See Man/machine Mix on the met office website
<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/scitech0203/6_forecasting/man_machine_mix.html>here</A>
Forecasters are still an important element in forecasting and correcting the models.
Regarding your other response. The Met Office have models. These are based on many different sub-models, some of which contain empirical formulae. The models are good, but not perfect as there are still many things they don't understand. That's why researchers around the world continue to develop improvements and new models continually. To say that the met office already have automatic models is only partly correct.They have models which are not yet accurate
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<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/scitech0203/6_forecasting/man_machine_mix.html>here</A>
Forecasters are still an important element in forecasting and correcting the models.
Regarding your other response. The Met Office have models. These are based on many different sub-models, some of which contain empirical formulae. The models are good, but not perfect as there are still many things they don't understand. That's why researchers around the world continue to develop improvements and new models continually. To say that the met office already have automatic models is only partly correct.They have models which are not yet accurate
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ParaHandy
Active member
there is much we don't understand .. sometimes it costs too much to have a perfect understanding so, probability is applied ... classical mathematicians could never understand it, smacked too much of smoke and mirrors!
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BrendanS
Well-known member
It's unlikely they will ever have a perfect understanding. Chaos theory rules everything more than a few days out, and the chances of being able to model that accurately is way beyond anything the mathematicians understand
Interestingly, the met office have started trying to educate broadcasters like the BBC so they can give probability based forecasts. The concern is that the average person won't understand being given two or three different forecasts with different probablities, but would make the forecasts a lot more accurate and understandable
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Interestingly, the met office have started trying to educate broadcasters like the BBC so they can give probability based forecasts. The concern is that the average person won't understand being given two or three different forecasts with different probablities, but would make the forecasts a lot more accurate and understandable
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charles_reed
Active member
Any lee-shore to a prevailing wind is going to be a fiercely uncomfortable place - in the case of Biscay it's wide open to a 2000nM fetch with big swell which get progressively shorter, sharper and steeper as you get into the shallowing water.
I've sailed both the Bristol Channel and Biscay and would say the latter is less dangerous as long as you keep outside the 200m depth - the reasons are the currents in the Bristol Channel and the more shoaling bottom.
Three weeks ago they had an E F8/9, on the Roussillon coast. A well-known Breton, single-handing a 12m boat up from the Baleares got blown past Port Vendres and he and the boat died just outside Canet - they couldn't even get the SNSM out to him. Now that is usually reckoned to be a pussy-cat of a coast.
Any shoaling coast in an onshore wind is going to be lethal. Just get out to sea.
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I've sailed both the Bristol Channel and Biscay and would say the latter is less dangerous as long as you keep outside the 200m depth - the reasons are the currents in the Bristol Channel and the more shoaling bottom.
Three weeks ago they had an E F8/9, on the Roussillon coast. A well-known Breton, single-handing a 12m boat up from the Baleares got blown past Port Vendres and he and the boat died just outside Canet - they couldn't even get the SNSM out to him. Now that is usually reckoned to be a pussy-cat of a coast.
Any shoaling coast in an onshore wind is going to be lethal. Just get out to sea.
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