New (England) restrictions impact on sailing?

[Mark-1]

Seems us Europeans may have a lot to learn from more socially aware countries such as Japan where folks with even a common cold wear face masks to avoid spreading to others.

Japanese people don't shake hands. They're a more distanced culture. Personally that would suit me fine but many Europeans would think that moving to a more distanced less "touchy" culture would be throwing the baby out with the bath water.

We should probably wear masks when we've got a cold and not go into work, though. Will that catch on though?

 

[Mark-1]

Interesting, the paper by Imprerial College mentions at least 4. Your citation please?

There are multiple links to studies in John Campbell's video above if you're genuinely interested in the (un)likelyhood of significant serious reinfection. Or just watch the vid, he really spells it out

 

[lustyd]

I’m more of a go to source kind of learner and don’t need things spelled out but I may have a watch. The immunity and reinfection research is, by its nature, very new (as I explained earlier) so anything he says on that channel is opinion based on very little information, as is mine. The trend right now seems to be towards immunity lowering rather than persisting as the latest research shows. The numbers are low right now because there’s no way they could be high given the circumstances of confirmed reinfection. Doctors guess a lot and don’t change stance easily so take their facts with a large pinch of salt. There’s a great book called black box thinking which examines the difference between medicine and aerospace which is worth a read. It explains a lot about this kind of scenario and why it’s hard to make progress in medicine.

 

[Never Grumble]

I honestly couldn’t be bothered discussing it with them. I’ve cut the rope down at the dodgy bit and replaced. It’s a pain because any time they go near the boat I have to do a 3 hour drive to retie the lines and check for damage. Movement is a regular thing unfortunately as apparently it’s hard to keep track of what boats go where in a marina

why do they need to move your boat?

 

[lustyd]

Various reasons. Sometimes because I’m in someone else’s berth and sometimes someone is in my berth and a few times because I didn’t have a permanent berth. I’d say I come back to a boat in my berth at least as often as people on moorings do, and often the marina isn’t aware of the boat being there

 

[Mark-1]

I’m more of a go to source kind of learner and don’t need things spelled out but I may have a watch. The immunity and reinfection research is, by its nature, very new (as I explained earlier) so anything he says on that channel is opinion based on very little information, as is mine. The trend right now seems to be towards immunity lowering rather than persisting as the latest research shows. The numbers are low right now because there’s no way they could be high given the circumstances of confirmed reinfection. Doctors guess a lot and don’t change stance easily so take their facts with a large pinch of salt. There’s a great book called black box thinking which examines the difference between medicine and aerospace which is worth a read. It explains a lot about this kind of scenario and why it’s hard to make progress in medicine.

He links in the description to every study he references, no need to even start the vid, just follow that links. (Not just preprints.) Feel free to come back with a list of studies that contradict them so we can all take a look.

(But you're wrong, think about the consequences for man kind of we didn't typically get useful resistance to viruses we'd already beaten.

...and ask yourself where the most similar virus we've seen went - yup SARS 1 is extinct without a vaccine and 17 years later people who had it are still immune *and* show all the signs of strong resistance to SARs2! )

However that's just my poorly informed view. You will come up with something much more sophisticated when you've "gone to the sources".)

 

[lustyd]

I linked one earlier, feel free to go and have a read. I wasn’t questioning the links or studies he references, I was saying the research is extremely new because by its nature we only have a couple of months of very limited data. In 6 months we’ll have a more clear picture but right now the trend of research is towards thinking immunity doesn’t remain. At that time he’ll either post a new video or refuse to accept that research if it continues as it is.

 

[JumbleDuck]

I do hope that you typed that slowly.

And exasperatedly. Still, fearmongers gonna mong fear, and

 

[JumbleDuck]

I linked one earlier, feel free to go and have a read. I wasn’t questioning the links or studies he references, I was saying the research is extremely new because by its nature we only have a couple of months of very limited data.

And on the basis of that very limited evidence you confidently proclaim that immunity lasts two months and that vaccines can't possibly work.

 

[ip485]

I’m more of a go to source kind of learner and don’t need things spelled out but I may have a watch. The immunity and reinfection research is, by its nature, very new (as I explained earlier) so anything he says on that channel is opinion based on very little information, as is mine. The trend right now seems to be towards immunity lowering rather than persisting as the latest research shows. The numbers are low right now because there’s no way they could be high given the circumstances of confirmed reinfection. Doctors guess a lot and don’t change stance easily so take their facts with a large pinch of salt. There’s a great book called black box thinking which examines the difference between medicine and aerospace which is worth a read. It explains a lot about this kind of scenario and why it’s hard to make progress in medicine.

I would recommend you do watch the video. It is very evidence based and John is a great believer in presenting the facts. There is a lot of hard evidence already on the behaviour of the two other viruses of the same type and much reason to believe COVID will behave in a similiar way. In terms of reinfection it is true there is very little evidence in one direction or another. There is evidence the vaccine will produce a more pronounced immune response than the virus, so comparisons with reinfection and infection after having received the vaccine are probably not comparable. There is far more evidence to the contrary of your position than there is to support it.

This area of research is also not lead primarily by doctors. Doctors are concerned with the clinical response, and while virologists may also be doctors, they are usually not.

I dont think the ideas espoused in the book are very much applicable to current academic science. The peer review standards and the requirements for evidence based science are such that most good science is proven before it becomes accepted. It is indeed hard to meet these standards and I agree this makes progress more time consuming, but it aslo means when the evidence is collected and peer reviewed it is usually sifficiently robust to meet the test of time.

I think when it comes to science hunches can be very useful, and field data even more useful BUT the data must be understood and the hunches set to one side when it comes to a discussion about what we know with reasonable certainty and what is just a hunch or is a conclusion based on data that may be suspect or have other explanations.

I would caution either jumping to conclusion or promoting a position which is not proven, because the last thing that is useful in the scenario or unsupported rumour or hunch based science presented as proven fact. Too may people can be easily taken in by it which is unfair.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Japanese people don't shake hands. They're a more distanced culture.

They also have a profound social aversion to sneezing, coughing or blowing their noses in public. Oddly, though, despite assiduous mask wearing, the incidence of the common cold in Japan isn't significant less than in Britain, so it may be more that their culture made additional measures against COVID-19 more palatable than that it helped directly.

Hold onto your hats, people. This is going to be a wild ride.

 

[Mark-1]

They also have a profound social aversion to sneezing, coughing or blowing their noses in public. Oddly, though, despite assiduous mask wearing, the incidence of the common cold in Japan isn't significant less than in Britain, so it may be more that their culture made additional measures against COVID-19 more palatable than that it helped directly.

Hold onto your hats, people. This is going to be a wild ride.

Entirely plausible.
Or as Sir John Bell said on radio 4 a while back about Vietnam: “Goodness knows what’s going on there, let me tell you. They must have seen something that looks like this virus before and they must have some pretty significant T cell immunity in that population, I suspect.”

Probably a combination of a few things. Occam's razor says there isn't a simple way to suppress Covid that the Western world can't do due to mass incomptence. (Which isn't to say that the clever highly paid Western medical folk can't learn from the East about unprofitable/simple stuff like zinc/vit D/masks/big open windows).

 

[Juan Twothree]

There's

MDL should not seek “clarification“ over the definition as they are inviting someone to say boating it not recreation.

Some berth holders have been seeking clarification, and making their feelings known, on MDL's Facebook page.

 

[bluerm166]

This started as an interesting thread with the usual acceptable conjecture about the future for laying up and working on boats after Thursday but I'm sorry it has turned into a slanging match peppered with a variety of off the wall opinions and dubious 'facts ' that I have so far reported one earlier post as falling foul of the COVID-19 sticky and find now that we get to one post including the line ' Nobody dies of Covid; anyone without a kitchen garden, farm or source of forage dies of starvation. '
This to me goes way beyond 'provocative tactics' or 'poor phrasing' and I hope that the moderators will do something about it

 

[lustyd]

Can’t see this sticky you’re talking about? Yes I thought that was a weird thing to say but don’t think they meant it literally

 

[Blue Sunray]

This started as an interesting thread with the usual acceptable conjecture about the future for laying up and working on boats after Thursday but I'm sorry it has turned into a slanging match peppered with a variety of off the wall opinions and dubious 'facts ' that I have so far reported one earlier post as falling foul of the COVID-19 sticky and find now that we get to one post including the line ' Nobody dies of Covid; anyone without a kitchen garden, farm or source of forage dies of starvation. '
This to me goes way beyond 'provocative tactics' or 'poor phrasing' and I hope that the moderators will do something about it

Missed that, another win for the ignore function.

However if people want to demonstrate their ignorance that's up to them, there's no need to read it (qv said ignore function).

 

[RAI]

Like Cambodia and Laos. They may not do a very good job with maternal mortality but they have superb governance and the medical skill to crush covid just by being better than us.

And Germany have a capable leader - a scientist and yet here they are with a 1300pc increase. Useless governance must be to blame.

Weird how the vast majority of nations choose disease when it’s so easy to suppress.

Why do you aspire to be among the worst countries in either politics or covid suppression.

How about aspiring to be world beating, like our dear leader.
Of course achieving is better than aspiring, but lately we don't do much of that.

 

[Mark-1]

Why do you aspire to be among the worst countries in either politics or covid suppression.

How about aspiring to be world beating, like our dear leader.
Of course achieving is better than aspiring, but lately we don't do much of that.

The debate is about whether it's credible that the western world has largely failed to suppress Covid because the Western World's leadership is inept or whether it's more likely that Covid is a tough nut to crack in the absence of a vaccine.

Anyway, this discussion should be in the lounge, so I'm ducking out. Apologies to all for my part in derailing a useful thread.

 

[Sea-Fever]

This started as an interesting thread with the usual acceptable conjecture about the future for laying up and working on boats after Thursday but I'm sorry it has turned into a slanging match peppered with a variety of off the wall opinions and dubious 'facts ' that I have so far reported one earlier post as falling foul of the COVID-19 sticky and find now that we get to one post including the line ' Nobody dies of Covid; anyone without a kitchen garden, farm or source of forage dies of starvation. '
This to me goes way beyond 'provocative tactics' or 'poor phrasing' and I hope that the moderators will do something about it

In support of RJJ, he (I'm sorry I'm assuming RJJ is a he) was just taking his argument to the nth degree to make the point I don't see a problem and welcome the chance in this thread to discuss opinion. He is making the point that if you lockdown everyone then if you don't have a food source you're a bit knackered. Which is true. What is wrong with his post?

 

[jimi]

Missed that, another win for the ignore function.

However if people want to demonstrate their ignorance that's up to them, there's no need to read it (qv said ignore function).

Yep, I've bunged one of the noisy ones on ignore. This is not the first thread that poster has vociferously displayed their ignorance and spoiled a decent discussion.