Bouba
Well-known member
Yes, there is a lot of will they, maybe, soon. A few regions tried it early then reimposed the mask rule. My idea would be to start with just the windy days, gather the data then see.
Med boaters - will you get to your boat this year?
- Thread starter julians
- Start date
Hurricane
Well-known member
Well, congratulations anyway.
I'm sure you will get out there but it might cost you a few Covid tests - worth every penny.
andrewbarker
Active member
That's the tyranny of modelling. "7 - 12 percent of returning visitors", "let's agree on 1 percent" - these are guesses at what might happen - and wildly variable.Yes I went for 1% of the returning masses .
You can manipulate the gross number and the asymptomatic carrier tiny number within the vaxed group any way you like .
But you can’t change the un vaxed soup of breading serum lurking in every EU airport , bar , Marina , restaurant, shop .
The younger the demographic the greater proportion of un vaxed you will be rubbing up against .
Your last para , “ How long “ until numbers balance with the U.K. s relatively sanitised island .The Green list .
The criteria for green , Amber , red are freely available.
Never “for ever “ until as i said the U.K. is happy with holding 1000 in hospitals , 2000 ish new ( not serious in vaxed ) cases and there will always be deaths below 10 seems acceptable.
Thats not 0% It’s a containable risk .U.K. economy is opening up with and EUs in double dip recession forecast .
Once EU states like Portugal s numbers equalise with the UKs then the U.K. pops can merge with those states uncontrolled.
They hopefully should now they have got out of first gear vaccination roll out wise ......still got a few gears to go .
Just a matter of time .I know this is not what you want to hear if you want to holiday in an Amber region .
Try your reasoning on NZ and Oz .
Business travel and urgent family reasons , etc are ok within Amber .
The fact is that current deaths in the population are running at 20% less than the five year average.
There is no evidence I have seen that Covid vaccines are failing to manage the emergence of variants
The "unvaxed soup" is unquantifiable and so is the benefit of masks, distance and hand sanitisation in public places.
I don't want to bang on about this, but your figures, with greatest respect, are guesses - no more. Other guesses and modelling will produce other scenarios.
TwoHooter
Well-known member
I completely agree. I think Portofino is posting pseudo-scientific hogwash. His hogwash is almost as bad as the codswallop produced by trousers-down Fergusson. The trouble is that it's dangerous hogwash and codswallop because it is the foundation stone upon which a new tyranny is being constructed remarkably quickly all over the world, and because it is bringing science itself into disrepute.
Portofino, please stop posting guesses. Please concentrate on describing the peer-reviewed results of controlled, double-blind, statistically robust, research. I am sick and tired of the mere opinions of scientists and doctors being dressed up as science.
And, by the way:-
1: Texas
2: Ivermectin
Portofino
Well-known member
Pretty rude really , ^^^ .i have to say .Evidence an alternative solution instead in a “ put up or shut up “ kinda way please .
Hey guys , don’t shoot the messenger .Just posted why it’s not “ incomprehensible “ .
Makes perfect sense the UKs strategy to me .
I did and have repeatedly qualified the numbers , just used 1% of 20 M as a easy in your head example .
And as I said feel free to pull them about as you wish . No guess work , it’s was the principle.
With a pandemic and variants you cannot afford nor have the luxury of double blind peer reviewed clinical studies .
Hence the erring on the side of caution correctly so .
Traffic light system makes perfect sense , what’s your issue(s) with it from a epidemiological pov ?
Eu are adopting a case rate / 100,000 number for vaxed folks regarding not forgoing quarantine .
Similar numbers means merging populations is virtually risk free as is similar vax % pop rates , which is the inverse of the “ breading variant serum sloshing about in populations “
Once the EU numbers catch up what’s your problem? .
So tell me what do you think will happen if the NZ population went forth and traveled like pre Covid days and returned to a partially low vaccinated home population ?
No need for any peer reviewed paper after the event .
D
Deleted User YDKXO
Guest
You seem to be very big on the accuracy of data. Have you got any hard data that backs up that statement?
Or let me point you to the ONS statement about the figure I believe you are referring to
And
Portofino
Well-known member
Hang on who cares what the grand sum is ?or was ?
Surely if your take a sub set eg road traffic accidents ( in what ever Covid time period ) and it’s obviously lower dragging down this master figure , are the deniers on here andrewbarker / Twohooter et al saying it’s ok to absorb an increase in another sector like corvid s ?
This lower alleged master death number is a red herring to the rationale of resistance of U.K. gov putting barriers to holidays ....playing the amber card for popular EU spots .
Bear in mind an extra running thou or so hospitalised , long Covid still work in progress.
Bear in mind the destinations on Amber have a higher circulation of virus + far higher deaths .
In time these Ambers should turn green . Until then robust quarantine on rtn is needed .
3 dead in the U.K. today .
On 16 th May France 81 Germany 285 , Italy 201 .
Roll with it guys , don’t start rocking you own boat
.
Surely if your take a sub set eg road traffic accidents ( in what ever Covid time period ) and it’s obviously lower dragging down this master figure , are the deniers on here andrewbarker / Twohooter et al saying it’s ok to absorb an increase in another sector like corvid s ?
This lower alleged master death number is a red herring to the rationale of resistance of U.K. gov putting barriers to holidays ....playing the amber card for popular EU spots .
Bear in mind an extra running thou or so hospitalised , long Covid still work in progress.
Bear in mind the destinations on Amber have a higher circulation of virus + far higher deaths .
In time these Ambers should turn green . Until then robust quarantine on rtn is needed .
3 dead in the U.K. today .
On 16 th May France 81 Germany 285 , Italy 201 .
Roll with it guys , don’t start rocking you own boat
.andrewbarker
Active member
ONS latest stats. And no, I was not referring to the data you quote. I was referring to the data for England.
And no, I was not referring to the week on week data you quote.
And yes, I always interpret data with caution.
And it will, of course, be interesting to see the next week's data because I don't just have an interest in data which supports points I may have to make.
D
Deleted User YDKXO
Guest
Could you link to the data for my benefit please
andrewbarker
Active member
Deaths - Office for National Statistics
The comparative data for England show a 20.2% reduction on the five year average. It will be interesting to see next week's data, but I am reasonably confident that a 20% difference is statistically significant even given the Bank Holiday reporting effect.
But I'm much more concerned about the Govt approach to the risk/benefit of lifting international lockdown. Their decisions just don't appear to be based on their stated criteria; they generally ignore most of the vaccination effect and the reductions in hospitalisations & deaths.
John100156
Well-known member
God I have not read the last dozen or so posts, I reckon many have gone C19 mad - just wait, get out if you can, take sensible precautions so as not to compromise your own health, or that of others, and all will be fine - don't follow the press, we will get through all of this SOOOOOON!
Bouba
Well-known member
M’y dilemma is that the weather forecast for the weekend is looking good but it’s a bank holiday here and it will be crowded ?
longjohnsilver
Well-known member
You’re not a messenger, just a guesser.
Portofino
Well-known member
Ok guys the problem is immunity for theses SARs type respiratory virus is conferred by a mixture of immunoglobulin, T cells and B cells .
After vaccination the levels rise sufficiently to protect you .One of those prevents you becoming a carrier .The other two prevent disease ,depending on the balance components you do not carry it .
At the start for what it’s targeted .B1-1-7 in this case .
The levels naturally decrease with time after you have been vaccinated .
This is still work in progress obviously as the trials where stated less then 12/12 ago and the the roll out less than 6/12 .
The levels and protection decay at different rates in different people .
How ever measuring thus far the 3 components the one thats dropping the quickest in a lot of people is the one that prevents you becoming a carrier .Then the other two which lead to illness hence it protects against severe illness and finally and thankfully the one that protects against death .This accounts for what you see now less illness and less deaths .
Less i said so that’s why there will always be a bottoming out residual hospitalisations .Currently hospitalised in the U.K. pop 70 M is under a 1000 , with very low deaths . Was 40000 in jan with relative un vaxed pop , and up to 1800 deaths / day .
The vax program has squashed those numbers down .
The potential problem is in the fully vaccinated because we now know , evidence is emerging because of this drop off of the carrier busting component , you might turn inadvertently into a carrier with no symptoms and bring a variant back if you leave the U.K. .A lot of you leave .
The testing potentially is defeated see here see the false negatives What are the different types of Covid-19 test and how do they work?
Additionally one of the big EU major spots has a high levels of the South African in circulation iirc France .You will need to your own checking which one ?
This has been all but quashed in the U.K.
The U.K. has in excess of 47 % ( last count ) of the worlds genomic testing capacity and its now possible to effectively drill deeper wider , faster in the surveillance than any other country.
Might be easier unscientifically to use this analogy .Think armed forces .Three services .Navy , Army and Airforce .
You need a mix of all three , not necessarily the exact name numbers , just the right balance to protect depending on the threat .
Drop one off very quickly and the enemy might find a way in .
Thats why there’s gov hesitation mixing vast swaths of the U.K. s pop into EU areas of high virus circulation this first summer from a biological POV .
Sure there are economic arguments along side to add in .
Hope that helps understand the UKs stance .
They are trying to follow the science as it emerges ,It’s the drop off of the component that protects you ( vaccinated ) from being a carrier .
After vaccination the levels rise sufficiently to protect you .One of those prevents you becoming a carrier .The other two prevent disease ,depending on the balance components you do not carry it .
At the start for what it’s targeted .B1-1-7 in this case .
The levels naturally decrease with time after you have been vaccinated .
This is still work in progress obviously as the trials where stated less then 12/12 ago and the the roll out less than 6/12 .
The levels and protection decay at different rates in different people .
How ever measuring thus far the 3 components the one thats dropping the quickest in a lot of people is the one that prevents you becoming a carrier .Then the other two which lead to illness hence it protects against severe illness and finally and thankfully the one that protects against death .This accounts for what you see now less illness and less deaths .
Less i said so that’s why there will always be a bottoming out residual hospitalisations .Currently hospitalised in the U.K. pop 70 M is under a 1000 , with very low deaths . Was 40000 in jan with relative un vaxed pop , and up to 1800 deaths / day .
The vax program has squashed those numbers down .
The potential problem is in the fully vaccinated because we now know , evidence is emerging because of this drop off of the carrier busting component , you might turn inadvertently into a carrier with no symptoms and bring a variant back if you leave the U.K. .A lot of you leave .
The testing potentially is defeated see here see the false negatives What are the different types of Covid-19 test and how do they work?
Additionally one of the big EU major spots has a high levels of the South African in circulation iirc France .You will need to your own checking which one ?
This has been all but quashed in the U.K.
The U.K. has in excess of 47 % ( last count ) of the worlds genomic testing capacity and its now possible to effectively drill deeper wider , faster in the surveillance than any other country.
Might be easier unscientifically to use this analogy .Think armed forces .Three services .Navy , Army and Airforce .
You need a mix of all three , not necessarily the exact name numbers , just the right balance to protect depending on the threat .
Drop one off very quickly and the enemy might find a way in .
Thats why there’s gov hesitation mixing vast swaths of the U.K. s pop into EU areas of high virus circulation this first summer from a biological POV .
Sure there are economic arguments along side to add in .
Hope that helps understand the UKs stance .
They are trying to follow the science as it emerges ,It’s the drop off of the component that protects you ( vaccinated ) from being a carrier .
mountain
Well-known member
Plan is to fly return to Tel Aviv (green) then on to Larnaca (amber) and, eventually, back to TA. We have very few corporate bookings so a few days gin-palacing around the west coast is on the cards.?
Bouba
Well-known member
Our favorite restaurant is open, that’s the good news. The bad news is that all visitors have to give one month notice and I have to spend the day and €30 at the town hall. So no visitors
piratos
Member
There more positive things in the world than the Covid Test
- stop fighting and talk about boats
- stop fighting and talk about boats
TwoHooter
Well-known member
I agree and I apologise if I have participated in the Covid variant of Godwin's Law taking over this thread. Covid seems to be like Brexit, everyone has firm opinions and becomes dogmatic when discussing it. I suspect I have fallen into that trap myself.
Portofino's most recent post deserves a detailed response but may I gently suggest that if there is any further discussion of political and medical controversies it might be better if it took place on the Covid thread, and not here. I would be content if Portofino has the last word, in his most recent post.
When this thread started it was a useful exchange of information about movement to and from and within Europe, and I followed it because I am hoping to take our boat to France this year. With that in mind I will continue to follow this thread but I will not post anything which is not directly relevant to government rules affecting actual cross-border movement of people and boats.
Hurricane
Well-known member
Northern France or the Med France?
Hooligan
Well-known member
They are not acceptable. However you can order an acceptable test before you leave and take with you. Check out Medic Spot. Basically take the test kit with you and on day you need to test log on to the site do test and record it. They email you a certificate. Yea Elle’s to Italy on Tuesday. All fairly smooth. So far.