Med boaters - will you get to your boat this year?

[Portofino]

Cyprus just confirmed opening from June for anyone who's been jabbed...no testing or isolation required.

Hopefully dominoes will fall...

A fast fwd to getting on the U.K. s red list .
Politics not science here .
If a place has a free for all “ come and get it “ scuse the pun - unregulated policy it’s gonna wind up a mutant soup breeding ground .
Vaxed folks can still carry virus . vaccination just means you thus far generally do not end up hospitalised that’s all .

Air travel,, just because you can does not mean it’s a great idea either ,indeed any crowd gathering activities in enclosed spaces .
Hence my scepticism.

If you can drive , avoid crowds all crowds open + enclosed , stay in your own spaces then that’s the best that ought to be aimed at .
Assuming host countries allow it , which for political / economic reasons will open up summer resorts + marinas .

There ought to still be quarantine on return as it is now , two levels regularly reviewed who’s in the red list .

Next summer ( 2022 ) after a winter of potential mutants emerging then a ( hopefully ) different approach .We just do not know how mutant the mutants are gonna be ? So best play cautious this year rather risk undoing the current successful strategy which is working .
Sure some mutants will emerge by evolutionary convergence at home , buts that’s not an excuse to throw away everything the U.K. has achieved thus far by having a free for all ‘ I ,am off to Spain mate , stuff you “ attitude .

Uk has its rapid response units going into suspect areas surge testing because it has the genetic genome testing capacity and is optimising that edge .Other countries are not so fortunate, the only way they will find out the virus is beating the vaccination program is when the numbers start to rise , by that time it’s too late .

So back on Cyprus ...hmm I,ll give it 6/8 weeks post “free for all “ before there numbers rise alarmingly and our guys ( Porton down GS testing ) find a mutant from a returned visitor = red listed .So factor in your £1750 hotel stay by the end of the summer .

As for the none red list this year = rigorous testing + quarantine on return .

Can’ t see any other science lead way .

 

[TonyR123]

surely vaccine makes all the testing/quarantine irrelevant. cyprus states with vaccine so be surprised if numbers go up alarmingly. a virus always mutates so something else we will have to live with. flu vaccines change each year and so will covid vaccines. if the uk population is highly vaccinated then hotel quarantine also will not happen as no need. number of cases ultimately arent the issue, people filling hospital beds and deaths is. vaccines is already proven to reduce hospital admissions from what i have read.

booked my august trip to mallorca. soon to sort july. june can wait until april 12th or whenever the announcement is.

 

[Portofino]

surely vaccine makes all the testing/quarantine irrelevant. cyprus states with vaccine so be surprised if numbers go up alarmingly. a virus always mutates so something else we will have to live with. flu vaccines change each year and so will covid vaccines. if the uk population is highly vaccinated then hotel quarantine also will not happen as no need. number of cases ultimately arent the issue, people filling hospital beds and deaths is. vaccines is already proven to reduce hospital admissions from what i have read.

booked my august trip to mallorca. soon to sort july. june can wait until april 12th or whenever the announcement is.

Did you miss the 5 th line down in my post # 181 , ?

“Vaxed folks can still carry virus . vaccination just means you thus far generally do not end up hospitalised that’s all .”

Infuenza has been globally managed by N + S hemisphere cooperation , By the time which ever 1/2 has had a outbreak a vaccine has been attenuated to match for the oncoming season in the other .The flue numbers are tiny btw , averaging 8-12 K deaths in the U.K. , with the exception of 2015 which wiped out 30;K in the UK .This is because despite what I have just said occasionally a mutant springs up off the radar .Uk public were complete oblivious to this extra 20 K dead btw , NHS took it in its stride .You never knew of the mutant strain in the N hemisphere that winter .

C19 is more transmissible and lethal grinding the western world to a halt .

The risk of resurgence via mutants brought in from returning tourist or any incomers and its management is the next phase .

Vaccination is only dealing with what you have in front of you the current strains .
Its not the end , it’s the beginning of the journey to live with Covid , the first stage .
Next stage is surveillance , then picking up mutant strains attenuation of the vaccine , then repeating the vax program .

As I said Uk never noticed a 20 K climb in flue in 2015 which only effected the very vulnerable.

The hotel quarantine is only for red listed , normal quarantine + early testing release should stay in place 2021 until the picture becomes clearer , that what will happen and ought to happen .

So virus’s they live in the central nervous systems ( CNS) generally and your immune system controls them and zaps any that escape into the rest of your body .So take Herpes the Variccela Zoster virus it lives in your spinal fluid and when your immune system lowers it guard you get an outbreak of shingles .Same with Herpes Simplex , cold sores on your genitalia or oral cavity .You are never cured you carry it , and indeed spread it to your partner(s) .Asymptomatically sure but it’s never really eliminated, you suffer outbreaks.Fortunately these to date do not mutate .In other words no cure as such it’s not wiped out the infected live with it , and it gets passed on .

Don,t be confused with bacteria infections with are all wiped out with antibiotics.
Virus ‘s are different animals, often hiding away in immunologically hard to reach places like the CNS .

The corona protein virus s like C19 and influenza are the tricky ones , we know they like to multiply in fat cells hence the obese exaggerated reaction.The Q is we know the vast majority (esp younger folk ) carry virus asymptomatically .
We know vaccinated folk thus far around 1/3 or 1/4 end up carriers .Meaning they have enough virus exhaled to pass it on to others even though they feel fighting fit .
Even at 84 or 92 % efficacy, the vax s still leave huge numbers susceptible as well .
Thats with what we have learnt in the past 12/12 .Still a lot to figure out .
Q is the unknown mutants out running the current antibodies the current vaccination program is delivering .

So you must have quarantine and surveillance together at home at least for the foreseeable future .

You can’t just let go and hope and take the hit like influenza mutants .
Without lock downs they suggest anything up to 500 K dead not 8-12 K or 30 K with flue in 2015 .

 

[Hooligan]

A fast fwd to getting on the U.K. s red list .
Politics not science here .
If a place has a free for all “ come and get it “ scuse the pun - unregulated policy it’s gonna wind up a mutant soup breeding ground .
Vaxed folks can still carry virus . vaccination just means you thus far generally do not end up hospitalised that’s all .

Air travel,, just because you can does not mean it’s a great idea either ,indeed any crowd gathering activities in enclosed spaces .
Hence my scepticism.

If you can drive , avoid crowds all crowds open + enclosed , stay in your own spaces then that’s the best that ought to be aimed at .
Assuming host countries allow it , which for political / economic reasons will open up summer resorts + marinas .

There ought to still be quarantine on return as it is now , two levels regularly reviewed who’s in the red list .

Next summer ( 2022 ) after a winter of potential mutants emerging then a ( hopefully ) different approach .We just do not know how mutant the mutants are gonna be ? So best play cautious this year rather risk undoing the current successful strategy which is working .
Sure some mutants will emerge by evolutionary convergence at home , buts that’s not an excuse to throw away everything the U.K. has achieved thus far by having a free for all ‘ I ,am off to Spain mate , stuff you “ attitude .

Uk has its rapid response units going into suspect areas surge testing because it has the genetic genome testing capacity and is optimising that edge .Other countries are not so fortunate, the only way they will find out the virus is beating the vaccination program is when the numbers start to rise , by that time it’s too late .

So back on Cyprus ...hmm I,ll give it 6/8 weeks post “free for all “ before there numbers rise alarmingly and our guys ( Porton down GS testing ) find a mutant from a returned visitor = red listed .So factor in your £1750 hotel stay by the end of the summer .

As for the none red list this year = rigorous testing + quarantine on return .

Can’ t see any other science lead way .

Sorry Porto but there is just no logic to this. First air travel is not proven to be somewhere where you are highly likely to catch the virus. I have travelled quite extensively (for work reasons) by air and not caught it. Frankly probably more likely to catch it at the supermarket or Petrol station. Most everyone you run into on a plane or at the airport has had a negative test within the last 3 days so it is probably the safest environment you can be if you wish to leave home at all. Secondly the scaremongering on the impact of transmission via vaccinated people is increasingly proving to be what it is ie scaremongering. Finally the idea that only vaccinated people travelling is a free for all that will lead to going on the Red list is ridiculous. If we follow your logic then forget any travel for the rest of our lives. Finally, for the second time , if your view is correct then frankly no one should be travelling anywhere regardless whether within or outside the UK. Why is F you I am off to Spain any worse than F you I am off to Cornwall when according to you in spiteof the fact most will have their vax by July it will make no difference to transmission. It is for individual countries to decide for themselves what the balance of risk overall is for them - this is a balance between the virus and many many other things that impact poverty, health etc, and for individuals to decide for themselves the level of risk they wish to take.

 

[TonyR123]

Did you miss the 5 th line down in my post # 181 , ?

“Vaxed folks can still carry virus . vaccination just means you thus far generally do not end up hospitalised that’s all .”

vaccine reducing hospitalisation is the key thing, number of infections isnt. Also the vaccine apparently DOES reduce transmission (according to data from Feb 21st). So again I dont see the issue.

 

[jrudge]

Hmmm...good point. I don't know. I suspect it will be both, but I don't know as yet. I heard it on LBC this morning.

This is all good but.

1. what proof do they require of a jab? There is none at present
2. Will the Uk let us out?
3. on what terms would the UK let us return ?

 

[Portofino]

Sorry Porto but there is just no logic to this. First air travel is not proven to be somewhere where you are highly likely to catch the virus. I have travelled quite extensively (for work reasons) by air and not caught it. Frankly probably more likely to catch it at the supermarket or Petrol station. Most everyone you run into on a plane or at the airport has had a negative test within the last 3 days so it is probably the safest environment you can be if you wish to leave home at all. Secondly the scaremongering on the impact of transmission via vaccinated people is increasingly proving to be what it is ie scaremongering. Finally the idea that only vaccinated people travelling is a free for all that will lead to going on the Red list is ridiculous. If we follow your logic then forget any travel for the rest of our lives. Finally, for the second time , if your view is correct then frankly no one should be travelling anywhere regardless whether within or outside the UK. Why is F you I am off to Spain any worse than F you I am off to Cornwall when according to you in spiteof the fact most will have their vax by July it will make no difference to transmission. It is for individual countries to decide for themselves what the balance of risk overall is for them - this is a balance between the virus and many many other things that impact poverty, health etc, and for individuals to decide for themselves the level of risk they wish to take.

It’s a volume numbers thing .Your experience is at the bottom end of pass numbers .
Any crowd gathering in confined spaces should be avoided , air travel ticks a lot of no no boxes .I ,am not having a pop at air travel .
Not suggesting stop air travel for the “ rest of your lives “ just saying in 2021 with mutant strains popping up in the un vaxed 444M EU pop , the vaxed up U.K. travellers are risking bringing it back .*

The real risk is going to be the management of incoming mutant strains in the first proper sumner 2021 .
Never said “ all going red “ just Cyprus if zero quarantine, which I understand is what this is about .Particularly if there’s a lot of Russian or other dubious entries? Portugal is already ( Brazil influence ) on the red list .

Current strain call it “ Kent “ is more transmissible that last summers , it changed the game and we do not know with near certainty if the next is gonna be worse or less ? Or if the current vaccination will be effective for the next strain(s) .So until you do play cautiously.
Staying in Cornwall , your example de risks mixing populations and strains , + assuming Spain gets up to near the same % vaxed ?Every U.K. Adult will be vaxed by then , maybe a few under 25 s very low risks to go .So it’s safe to play beach volleyball in Cornwall or surf or what ever even party outside.

It’s not clear yet , the EU will adult vaxed up by the summer , might be though by the summer ??
Its the behaviour too what folks get up to on hols ( not our boater demographic ) but party’s , closed drinking etc discos etc .Which is your supermarket point .

No scaremongering re vaxed or otherwise carriers it how virus work .
As I said by 2022 season we will have a better view .

@ Tony, the drop off in hospitalisation is for the current known vaccine s effective strains ......that’s the logic a freshly introduced mutant brought back could severely reduce this current vax and those hospitalised will rise again = another lockdown .

Unless quarantine + surveillance is robust .

* Ok turn it around Cyprus says vaxed folk can arrive sans test / quarantine but my difference is this ( I wish ? ) You can only mix associate with similarly vaxed folks .Thats as safe as you can get .
So off 10 or 20 M head to Spain safe in the knowledge every contact from landing to hotel ( marina in our cases ) shops , pools , beaches and restaurants have been equally vaxed .

Holligan will that be the case summer 21 .?

By summer 2022 I bet yes , or near as dam it to accept any risk .

 

[Portofino]

What i sense here from todays posts is the vaccine , the current one is the cure and once vaxed it’s over .

The first vaccine is just the beginning of a journey , a journey of surveillance for mutant strains and re vaccination.
until you fall within one of theses three groups .

1-Live with your own effective immune immunological response.Pure Darwinism at work .Asymptomatic carriers

2- Live with assistance from a effective ( inc surveillance and attenuation of vaccine to suit ) vaccination program . Vast majority for some time fall into this group .

3- Die .


We are at the early part effective year one of number 2 .It’s not clear ( as of 5/3/21 ) if the EU vax program can level up with the UKs for summer 21 .

 

[Hooligan]

It’s a volume numbers thing .Your experience is at the bottom end of pass numbers .
Any crowd gathering in confined spaces should be avoided , air travel ticks a lot of no no boxes .I ,am not having a pop at air travel .
Not suggesting stop air travel for the “ rest of your lives “ just saying in 2021 with mutant strains popping up in the un vaxed 444M EU pop , the vaxed up U.K. travellers are risking bringing it back .*

The real risk is going to be the management of incoming mutant strains in the first proper sumner 2021 .
Never said “ all going red “ just Cyprus if zero quarantine, which I understand is what this is about .Particularly if there’s a lot of Russian or other dubious entries? Portugal is already ( Brazil influence ) on the red list .

Current strain call it “ Kent “ is more transmissible that last summers , it changed the game and we do not know with near certainty if the next is gonna be worse or less ? Or if the current vaccination will be effective for the next strain(s) .So until you do play cautiously.
Staying in Cornwall , your example de risks mixing populations and strains , + assuming Spain gets up to near the same % vaxed ?Every U.K. Adult will be vaxed by then , maybe a few under 25 s very low risks to go .So it’s safe to play beach volleyball in Cornwall or surf or what ever even party outside.

It’s not clear yet , the EU will adult vaxed up by the summer , might be though by the summer ??
Its the behaviour too what folks get up to on hols ( not our boater demographic ) but party’s , closed drinking etc discos etc .Which is your supermarket point .

No scaremongering re vaxed or otherwise carriers it how virus work .
As I said by 2022 season we will have a better view .

@ Tony, the drop off in hospitalisation is for the current known vaccine s effective strains ......that’s the logic a freshly introduced mutant brought back could severely reduce this current vax and those hospitalised will rise again = another lockdown .

Unless quarantine + surveillance is robust .

* Ok turn it around Cyprus says vaxed folk can arrive sans test / quarantine but my difference is this ( I wish ? ) You can only mix associate with similarly vaxed folks .Thats as safe as you can get .
So off 10 or 20 M head to Spain safe in the knowledge every contact from landing to hotel ( marina in our cases ) shops , pools , beaches and restaurants have been equally vaxed .

Holligan will that be the case summer 21 .?

By summer 2022 I bet yes , or near as dam it to accept any risk .

It would seem to me that compared to last year - there are many more people who have had the illness across Europe and hence some immunity, there are many many more who will have had a vaccination including probably 95% of those who travel from the UK. On top of this it is summer when we know the prevalence drops in any case. Combine all this and we should be in a far far safer place than last year to travel. Now if some Ninja Turtle mutant descends upon us then who knows, we might all be wiped out by the deadly beasts. But i do not see why the same risk will not be prevalent in 2022 and I can guarantee that no one wants to wait yet another year, then another, then another in case the Ninjas arrive. We have to deal with the fact that this thing is with us, it isn’t going away, trust in the vaccines and get on with our lives in a safe and respectful way. So yes I believe it will be perfectly safe within acceptable risk parameters to travel this summer. PS Spain will be no riskier than Cornwall, and certainly no more crowded. In fact given most eating is outside in Spain etc versus Cornwall where restaurants mostly inside in the evenings, may by your definition be even safer.

 

[Bouba]

I have to agree with Porto. His science is very good. There is science and there is economics, and it’s the unenviable job of the politicians to get the balance right. So the opening of the resorts indicates nothing but risk assessment on the macro scale. It’s upto the individual to act responsibly, wear masks, avoid crowds (i don’t care how safe planes are I wouldn’t go near an airport). We are lucky most of us are in drivable range of our marinas and we practically invented self-isolation as a vacation model

 

[Norman_E]

I will not, because after a year of no sailing, and some health problems, I have just sold my yacht.

 

[Bouba]

I will not, because after a year of no sailing, and some health problems, I have just sold my yacht.

I’m sorry to hear that. Any chance of a cure and return to your hobby?

 

[cataldo]

I’m sorry to hear that. Any chance of a cure and return to your hobby?
[/QUOTE

Thank you Portofino,for all that valuable and seemingly convincing insight into our future life handling this horrible Plague.

 

[longjohnsilver]

"Thank you Portofino,for all that valuable and seemingly convincing insight into our future life handling this horrible Plague"

Beware the ides of March................

 

[Portofino]

"Thank you Portofino,for all that valuable and seemingly convincing insight into our future life handling this horrible Plague"

Beware the ides of March................

Precisely , I take it .......if only Caesar would have heeded to the advice he heard he could have not been killed . Gottcha .............

“Beware of the ides of October” I say .

 

[Bouba]

That’s true, he’d still be alive today

 

[John100156]

Yep, he would have the Italian variant which causes stabbing pains all over.....

 

[Bouba]

Hmmm...good point. I don't know. I suspect it will be both, but I don't know as yet. I heard it on LBC this morning.

Two doses
Coronavirus: Europe in vaccine race to save summer

 

[Clancy Moped]

Two doses
Coronavirus: Europe in vaccine race to save summer

No mention of masks which are still mandatory in Spain everywhere....

 

[Clancy Moped]

Another extension till March 30th for the next review.

Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social - Gabinete de Prensa - Notas de Prensa