Market expectations changing over time

[benjenbav]

You miss quote me. Our hull is foam core composite. The keel is 6 t of lead. The boat is far, far stronger then a modern equivalent. The hull deck joint is monocoque. There is no joint as such. Same for the keel. Everything is glassed together so no point for water ingress. The sides of the hull have a bumper rail with stainless steel capping. Internally, there is a huge longitudinal stringer behind the bumper rail to reinforce it. We have walk in engine room with headroom, and a work bench.
The point I was making is that a boat of this type cannot be purchased now. So its not always about cost comparison. Money wasn't the issue.
We wanted a boat thst could take two people anywhere in safety and deal with poor weather. Being 44ft, we have more than enough room so the huge volume of modern hulls is of no interest. At anchor we roll far less than any modern hull design. Comfort at anchor is not just about having a wide arsed hull.

What boat do you have, if I may ask?

I was recently looking at a S&S Nautor Swan 44. In many ways a very lovely boat. Looks, even condition with a recent refit the cost of which I doubt the seller would come close to recouping

…But unquestionably compromised on accommodation which was perhaps equivalent in volume to a Jeanneau 349 and even accessing the interior at all did not seem to have been the first thought of Messrs Sparkman and Stephens.

 

[geem]

All of this is great. However the thread is about market expectations, and the yard that made your boat went bust.

The thread was comparing the cost of old boats against new boats and their residual value. When I bought my boat, it was at rock bottom price. I bought it because it was what I wanted. There wasn't a modern boat that I wanted. The market makes boats for the masses, highly influenced by the charter market. That wasn't something we wanted. If they made something we wanted we would have purchased it

 

[Supertramp]

The point I was making is that a boat of this type cannot be purchased now. So its not always about cost comparison. Money wasn't the issue.

Fully agree - the new boats available do not reflect the diversity of uses owners want them to perform. If your expectations align to the market then the reasoning of the thread makes sense.

But if you want a gaff rig or a pilothouse or enough fuel and water to last months, or a specific rig or construction material then the choice is limited and the costs increase dramatically.

All of this is great. However the thread is about market expectations, and the yard that made your boat went bust.

One of the reasons such manufacturers struggle is that the real cost of using top quality materials and offering custom choices is enormous. They cannot make the economies volume manufacturers can through repetition and refinement of the manufacturing process.

Tranona's original point is valid in that the modern boats of 20 years ago are doing pretty well. But that does not make them able to meet all owner expectations either then, or now.

 

[geem]

What boat do you have, if I may ask?

I was recently looking at a S&S Nautor Swan 44. In many ways a very lovely boat. Looks, even condition with a recent refit the cost of which I doubt the seller would come close to recouping

…But unquestionably compromised on accommodation which was perhaps equivalent in volume to a Jeanneau 349 and even accessing the interior at all did not seem to have been the first thought of Messrs Sparkman and Stephens.

You are spot on. The accommodation was not a priority. We are currently anchored, in the Azores, next to American friends with a Island Packet 525. He was remising about the Swan 47 he used to own. He also said how little accommodation it had and how poor it would have been for the lifestyle they now have. They bought the IP to sail around the world.
We have a Trintella 44 ketch. We are not as space compromised as you may think

 

[flaming]

Fully agree - the new boats available do not reflect the diversity of uses owners want them to perform. If your expectations align to the market then the reasoning of the thread makes sense.

But if you want a gaff rig or a pilothouse or enough fuel and water to last months, or a specific rig or construction material then the choice is limited and the costs increase dramatically.


One of the reasons such manufacturers struggle is that the real cost of using top quality materials and offering custom choices is enormous. They cannot make the economies volume manufacturers can through repetition and refinement of the manufacturing process.

Tranona's original point is valid in that the modern boats of 20 years ago are doing pretty well. But that does not make them able to meet all owner expectations either then, or now.

I do agree with all that. However I'd also add the caveat that the number of small build yards is not really reducing. They're still there, just what they're building has changed. Gone are the big heavy "go anywhere" cruisers and in have come lighter, faster boats. Though still with the expectation of long ocean passages.

The people buying new boats are voting with their wallets, and the supply of second hand boats in years to come will alter as a result.

 

[RunAgroundHard]

..what they're building has changed. Gone are the big heavy "go anywhere" cruisers and in have come lighter, faster boats. ...

The people buying new boats are voting with their wallets, and the supply of second hand boats in years to come will alter as a result.

Hardly surprising as engineering capability and materials change; design style has never stood still. I am always surprised that folks are surprised that yacht design is different now than in previous decades. What is really being discussed now, in this thread, is needs and wants based on ability to pay and thankfully we have a wide market choice in the UK that folks are free to buy from. In the future folks will still be making purchases based on their wallets from the available choices. I dare say, short of a disaster, both Geem's and my boat will be available for sale and find willing buyers, if the price is right, as will current modern designs in the decades to come.

 

[geem]

Gone are the big heavy "go anywhere" cruisers and in have come lighter, faster boats. Though still with the expectation of long ocean passages.

What boats were thinking of specifically?
Garcia are building go anywhere cruisers but they are not fast. Allures have their lift keel boats that are light but they are slow. They are not run of the mill production boats aimed at the charter market but neither are they fast

 

[Mark-1]

I was recently looking at a S&S Nautor Swan 44. In many ways a very lovely boat.

That's an understatement. Stunning boats.

...but compromises made for IOC rules that no longer exist.

Which is another of my bug bears about older boats. You frequently get very short LWL for LOA which is just the wrong way to build a boat and the only reason they did it was to get a better handicap. Even worse in the case of boats never intended to race where they did it just because racing boats set the trend and the cruising boats copied needless compromises. Ditto tiny mainsails on short booms and massive genoas.

 

[flaming]

What boats were thinking of specifically?
Garcia are building go anywhere cruisers but they are not fast. Allures have their lift keel boats that are light but they are slow. They are not run of the mill production boats aimed at the charter market but neither are they fast

There are any number of small yards building fast cruising boats. JPK, Pogo, RM, Neo etc etc. And a bunch of small yards tooling up to make scow boats for ocean sailing.

Garcia's smallest boat is a 45 that was £660k as tested by YM in 2014. God only knows how much that would be now.
Garcia Exploration 45 - Yachting Monthly review

The same size JPK, equipped for an Atlantic circuit is less than half as much.
JPK 45 boat test: Performance cruiser provides memorable enjoyment

I think your boat is great, truly. And that Garcia is a very interesting boat. And I absolutely get the appeal, but the reality is that boats like that simply aren't being made any more, at least not in any meaningful numbers. With that sort of price tag you can see why.
Meanwhile JPK and Pogo are churning out 50+ hulls a year each and have multi year waiting lists. Then you see that mainstream "quality" builders like HR etc are heading towards lighter and faster with every launch.

If you look forward 15-20 years from now, the heavy "solid traditional" cruising boats like yours will be either extremely rare, or 40+ years old. It will take a very particular person to decide that refitting a 40 year old boat like yours is a better bet for them than buying a 10-15 year old boat of the type people are buying to cruise now.

 

[geem]

That's an understatement. Stunning boats.

...but compromises made for IOC rules that no longer exist.

Which is another of my bug bears about older boats. You frequently get very short LWL for LOA which is just the wrong way to build a boat and the only reason they did it was to get a better handicap. Even worse in the case of boats never intended to race where they did it just because racing boats set the trend and the cruising boats copied needless compromises. Ditto tiny mainsails on short booms and massive genoas.

Not all boats were built with racing rules in mind. We have a 44ft ketch with the same mast hieght and mainsail size as a Beneteau 473. We do have a large genoa but we retro fitted an inner forestay so we are Solent rigged. Something you see quite a lot of on boats doing long passages, whether they are a modern design or older design.
By modern standard we have a short waterline. This causes us to pitch more than a similar sized boat with a long waterline. It also gives us a theoretical lower top speed. Because of our hull shape we don't slam going to weather and we don't get the slap, slap at anchor. In light winds we are surprisingly fast due to large sail area and a hull shape with less drag than the modern wide transom boats. We would never compete racing around the cans. We are not fast off the wind where a modern flat bottom hull would be surfing but as the wind picks up to gale force, the boat is manageable and relatively comfortable, all on autopilot. With a husband and wife crew, these aspects are more important to us. Our recent passage from Antigua to Horta in the Azores was a light wind passage except for one depression we sail through. Perfect conditions for our boat. In light winds we sail very well and she handles the bumpier stuff well. We didn't have any fast daily runs, only peaking at 178nm DMG 24hr run. But we did do the crossing in 15 days, 2 hrs.
We didn't find another bost of our size that did it faster. We were faster than an Oyster 55 that left on the same day. We beat them by 4 hours. A Gibsea53 beat us. Nothing in the 40-50ft range that we could find was faster. If it had been a more windy passage, I am sure it would have been different.
When ocean sailing, everybody is well loaded. Most carry extra fuel on deck, extra water, maybe more crew, extra food, etc
The extra weight does nothing for performance. Lots of modern designs don't take well to being over loaded and speed suffers. If I was not doing this kind of sailing I would have this kind of boat. I am not having a dig at modern boats, just trying to explain the reasons why we have this old boat. I am not trying to be divisive. Just explaining that we don't all want the same. Experiences shape your views

 

[geem]

There are any number of small yards building fast cruising boats. JPK, Pogo, RM, Neo etc etc. And a bunch of small yards tooling up to make scow boats for ocean sailing.

Garcia's smallest boat is a 45 that was £660k as tested by YM in 2014. God only knows how much that would be now.
Garcia Exploration 45 - Yachting Monthly review

The same size JPK, equipped for an Atlantic circuit is less than half as much.
JPK 45 boat test: Performance cruiser provides memorable enjoyment

I think your boat is great, truly. And that Garcia is a very interesting boat. And I absolutely get the appeal, but the reality is that boats like that simply aren't being made any more, at least not in any meaningful numbers. With that sort of price tag you can see why.
Meanwhile JPK and Pogo are churning out 50+ hulls a year each and have multi year waiting lists. Then you see that mainstream "quality" builders like HR etc are heading towards lighter and faster with every launch.

If you look forward 15-20 years from now, the heavy "solid traditional" cruising boats like yours will be either extremely rare, or 40+ years old. It will take a very particular person to decide that refitting a 40 year old boat like yours is a better bet for them than buying a 10-15 year old boat of the type people are buying to cruise now.

I totally agree with you and I am not arguing. We are basically agreeing with each other. That's a bit unusual

 

[Mark-1]

Just explaining that we don't all want the same. Experiences shape your views

Yup, no quarrel with that, and I don't doubt that your vessel is way more attractive than the floating caravans.

One small point regarding speed: A low LWL will be compensated for by handicap in a race. Whereas speed in cruising is a serious benefit.

 

[geem]

Yup, no quarrel with that, and I don't doubt that your vessel is way more attractive than the floating caravans.

One small point regarding speed: A low LWL will be compensated for by handicap in a race. Whereas speed in cruising is a serious benefit.

With a Solent rig, racing around the cans would be a pain. Twin furlers set 2 foot apart doesn't not make for fast tacks on the genoa. I have to go on deck and physically pull the genoa through the gap or you furl it away and unfurl on the other side. Both a bit crap, but out cruising when the wind pipes up, we roll the genoa away and unroll the blade jib. Performance improves hugely over a reefed genoa. We never reef the genoa

 

[benjenbav]

You are spot on. The accommodation was not a priority. We are currently anchored, in the Azores, next to American friends with a Island Packet 525. He was remising about the Swan 47 he used to own. He also said how little accommodation it had and how poor it would have been for the lifestyle they now have. They bought the IP to sail around the world.
We have a Trintella 44 ketch. We are not as space compromised as you may thinkView attachment 178827

Very nice boat.

 

[Mark-1]

Very nice boat.

Just googled. Stunning.

 

[Tranona]

The last 20 posts or so have been about what I called the "fringes", whereas I deliberately focussed on the "mainstream" - the Sadlers, Westerlys, Moodys of the 70s-90s which dominated the UK 26-36' market and were still mainstream in 2002 and commanding high prices, close to new boats. From around 1998 on that changed dramatically as new boat prices fell. In the same PBO issue there was this £60k or so refitted 12 year old Sadler, and a new Hanse 341 for £57k, various 15-20 year old Moody 31s, Sadler 32, Westerly Tempest and Fulmar in the £35-45k and a new Hanse 341 at £45k or a 2 year old Bavaria 31 £48k. Dare I mention the Centaurs at £15k and Konsorts at £25-30k. I bought my Bavaria 37 in 2001 fully loaded for charter use for just under £80k compared with similar size 15 year old Moodys and Westerlys at around £70k.

Most of those older boats will have needed major expenditure, particularly on engines in the intervening 20 years, but are now worth less than half of what they were selling for then. On the other hand AWBs from that period have fallen about 1/3 in value and most are still on their original engines and systems. They command a higher price now for the same reason they sold in their thousands 20 years ago - they meet buyers' expectations better plus have proven they are durable as well.

 

[mrming]

The last 20 posts or so have been about what I called the "fringes", whereas I deliberately focussed on the "mainstream" - the Sadlers, Westerlys, Moodys of the 70s-90s which dominated the UK 26-36' market and were still mainstream in 2002 and commanding high prices, close to new boats. From around 1998 on that changed dramatically as new boat prices fell. In the same PBO issue there was this £60k or so refitted 12 year old Sadler, and a new Hanse 341 for £57k, various 15-20 year old Moody 31s, Sadler 32, Westerly Tempest and Fulmar in the £35-45k and a new Hanse 341 at £45k or a 2 year old Bavaria 31 £48k. Dare I mention the Centaurs at £15k and Konsorts at £25-30k. I bought my Bavaria 37 in 2001 fully loaded for charter use for just under £80k compared with similar size 15 year old Moodys and Westerlys at around £70k.

Most of those older boats will have needed major expenditure, particularly on engines in the intervening 20 years, but are now worth less than half of what they were selling for then. On the other hand AWBs from that period have fallen about 1/3 in value and most are still on their original engines and systems. They command a higher price now for the same reason they sold in their thousands 20 years ago - they meet buyers' expectations better plus have proven they are durable as well.

I look at probably 100-200 boat ads a week, up to around £100k / €115k, looking for yachts in much better than average condition.

They tend to be 30-45 ft AWBs as that’s the majority of what’s available in that price bracket. For 2000-ish build year, the Beneteau, Jeanneau and Bavaria interiors have often survived extremely well, and what’s particularly noticeable is how clean and tidy the factory installed engines still look.

Obviously there are other brands that also survive in good condition, but it’s noticeable how many from these 3 manufacturers have come through unscathed. They built a lot, which no doubt helps, but I don’t think the quality of the build has turned out to be any sort of issue.

 

[Sea Change]

I guess the current version of this conversation would revolve around multihulls. "Won't last twenty years" etc.
Is the Lagoon bulkhead problem today's version of Bavaria keels? Widely reported but not indicative of a general problem across all makes and models.

Or do the armchair commentators have it right, and the multihulls of today will be undesirable in 20 years time?

 

[Tranona]

I look at probably 100-200 boat ads a week, up to around £100k / €115k, looking for yachts in much better than average condition.

They tend to be 30-45 ft AWBs as that’s the majority of what’s available in that price bracket. For 2000-ish build year, the Beneteau, Jeanneau and Bavaria interiors have often survived extremely well, and what’s particularly noticeable is how clean and tidy the factory installed engines still look.

Obviously there are other brands that also survive in good condition, but it’s noticeable how many from these 3 manufacturers have come through unscathed. They built a lot, which no doubt helps, but I don’t think the quality of the build has turned out to be any sort of issue.

A lot of that is due to three changes. First saildrives or Volvo seals for shaft drives which means that fluid in bilges is rare, second generally better (but not perfect) window and hatches, and third the use of plastic tanks and domestic style hoses and connectors for fresh water systems. This means no damp and mouldy interiors and dry engine compartments under solid cockpit floors.

 

[Tranona]

I guess the current version of this conversation would revolve around multihulls. "Won't last twenty years" etc.
Is the Lagoon bulkhead problem today's version of Bavaria keels? Widely reported but not indicative of a general problem across all makes and models.

Or do the armchair commentators have it right, and the multihulls of today will be undesirable in 20 years time?

My concern about the market for multihulls is what will happen to all the charter versions when they get retired. Just an educated guess but with mono AWBs maybe I in 3 is sold as a charter boat whereas suspect for multihulls the proportion is the opposite 2 out of 3 to charter. Are there enough private buyers to absorb this many?