Iraqi Oil

[Bergman]

Re: Freedom and Democracy ... ?

Nigel

I think the point I tried to make was that not absolutely everything about USA was sweetness & light.

Equally not everything bad either

In fact not that different from many other countries, good bits and bad bits.

Saudi is good example - I too liked the people there. Including the chap who had a list of UK and US companies he was boycotting, but was warm and friendly to me and my colleagues, some of whom were American. Particularly liked another chap who came up to me, smiled, and said "If I was allowed to I would wish you a very merry Xmas"

They are not all terrorists

Neither are Americans all racists How many Black generals in British Army? Why are Gurkha soldiers treated significantly worse than British in terms of pensions?

Fact is if I couldn't live in UK US would be high on the list of alternatives, and I suspect that is true for very many people.

 

[Guest]

I agree ....

My brother lives in US, I have many friends over there, I have friends in Saudi, Kuwait, etc.

Everyone has their baddies ..... it's sad but true. I don't think the Arab - Israeli arguments will ever stop -same as the IRA / UDA etc. ..... sorry they are with NEW names aren't they !!

We live in a world that seems to be hating each other more and more .... if so much effort and investment of time and money could be put into Aids research etc..... it would be eradictaed in minutes .... not decades !

Nigel ...
Bilge Keelers get up further ! I only came - cos they said there was FREE Guinness !

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Russian Oil

I am very well aware of the POTENTIAL of Russias oil reserves, but they are still way behind, investment now, will see them producing and transporting oil in the future, that doesn't help the US now, they need cotinued flow of oil. They will do wjatever they need to do to garauntee that flow. We all know that, especially people like us in the industry. I worked in Siberia, I saw the pipelkones and the ruptures in those pipelines, with thousands of barrels in lakes, surrounded by bulldozed berms. That was just what I saw, this scenario is repaeted all over the place. Anyway, without going any further, Iraq and war is about oil! Nobody but a fool could doubt that now. Just as an aside, it was Winston Churchill who dropped gas bombs on the Kurds first, in 1919 I believe!

 

[Guest]

I think people should stop getting excited about oil. It's (literally) not worth it. A few points:

1. It has been amply demonstrated that there is a relatively low sustainable price ceiling (about $30 per barrel). This is so cheap that European governments have to impose an 80%+ tax on fuel to keep consumption under control. There is not a shortage of oil - there is some finite limit to oil that costs $1-2 to produce and deliver, but no shortage at all of oil that costs $10-20 to produce. Since we already pay over $20 to import, it suggests that it is not the consumers that have to worry - it is the producers - hence the price ceiling.

2. Further, inflation has until recently obscured the fact that oil (like many other finite consumables) has been falling in real terms for a century or more. As a proportion of national income it has declined even faster.

3. What really depresses the Saudi's et al is that they know that if push came to shove we could stop using oil in the West. The technology is now proven for hydrogen and similar technologies - it is merely a question of time. The only thing slowing it down is the absurdly low price of oil.

4. Regardless of who takes a cut, over 80% of the value from any oil exports will stay in Iraq. Even if US firms dominate the business (unlikely in the long term), they will merely get the usual reward for the required investment - it will not be for free (Iraq needs $30-40 bn of investment in the oil facilities alone). Who cares?

I find it puzzling that anyone should want to risk blood and treasure in the Middle East for oil - it really is not worth it. I'm sure someone as informed as Colin Powell is well aware of this - hence his statement.

These are the humble thoughts on the matter from someone who earns his living finding and producing the stuff. I personally believe the business will hold up for the remaining duration of my career, but would note that my company (along with others) is pouring money into non-oil energy enterprises for the long-term.

This is getting a bit of a ramble, but I would refer you to southern Oman - here lies the once fabulously wealthy and unique frankincense fields. It's all still there, but the civilisation it once supported has fallen into the sands. They didn't run out of the stuff, we just stopped using it - thence will follow the oil economies of the Middle East unless they stop relying on oil - and believe me they know it.

 

[Guest]

Re: Russian Oil

So we agree basically .... but I also know that investment by Russian and Western interests is going on and developing the infrastructure ..... it is expanding and developing at massive rate.

YES - today Gulf dominates and is a reason for all the rubbish and excuses we hear.

But it is true that Russia is fast becoming an issue with all this .... OPEC now tries everything it can to get Russia to comply / agree / join it ... but Russia makes public gesture, while quietly doing another.

Watch this space is all I advise.

Nigel ...
Bilge Keelers get up further ! I only came - cos they said there was FREE Guinness !

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Russian Oil

Yes, we do agree. You're quite right about they OPEC countries trying to get Russia to comply, but the Russians need foriegn money now! So they will do whatever they need to. Their interests are in keeping the kettle boiling, but no war, they are winning hands down with the oil price the way it is. I will be watching this space at all times!! Should all be over bar the shouting, by the time I get into the near east anyway!